First off, I don't believe he always folds AK on the turn. But also, he is just as likely to check back 77-99 than cbet TT/JJ (actually I say he checks back his weak small pairs more often than he cbets TT/JJ/KK). So when he does bet the flop if we are going to sway his range on the turn in any manner, I would lean more towards his flop cbet being geared more towards value and elimating a portion of his weak range/bluffs, than going the other way and saying he cbets more of those hands. This would mean that we have less FE on the turn after check/calling the flop because his range is now more geared towards hands he doesn't fold.

You can continue to analyze and see where a bet on the turn would work as a bluff (note it is most definitely a bluff). However, this is going to contain a bit of math and time to come to the conclusions. Luxuries that are hard to find while at the time. So while we may be able to look back and do a range analysis post-hand and come to the conclusion that a bluff on the turn is +EV (which I'm still not entirely convinced off), but at the table we are going to have to make a much quicker assessment. And my entire logic throughout the hand would be as follows:

Preflop - I'm likely ahead of his range. I feel I play better postflop, and building a pot OOP with AK against this opponent might not be a good idea. Especially given his tight opening range and the likelihood that my hand does not fair wonderful against the range of hands he calls my 3bet with.

Flop - I'm checking to let him to continue to make numerous mistakes, such as putting in money with worse value hands, and cbetting air. When he bets, I feel I am ahead of his betting range at this time. Because a call is +EV, and I don't feel I am >50% against the range of hands he calls a raise with, I'm simply going to call.

Turn - I have a hand with moderate SD value. It can still be ahead of a decent portion of his range. I can't bet for value, so my decision is either to bluff and b/f, c/f, or c/c. I figure given my SD value and the likelihood he turns his hand pretty faceup if I check the turn, and the fact that given his nitty tendencies his range for betting the flop might be tighter than I"m given credit. So I don't feel I have a shitload of FE, and decide to check. When he bets, I dismiss the idea of check/call because I'm likely not ahead of his range. So check/fold it is.

Either way, I'm not responding with such a long response again ITT. Too much typing even for my liking.