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AJs TPTK vs loose-ish unknown

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  1. #3
    I would bet about $3 here. The reason is that, while it looks like your opponent was chasing a flush that busted, it's possible that that chase included a 5 that has now tripled up.

    Given your aggression throughout the hand, I just can't see a larger bet being called by much of anything unless they're holding something that has you beaten.

    A $3 bet will do two things for you. It looks like a value bet (it is), so your opponent will be less likely to raise you as a bluff and force you to risk a larger portion of their stack, but the 3.15 to 1 odds might induce a slightly worse hand to call.

    The other reason has to do with your stack size. You're both deep stacked on a table of mostly normally and short stacked players, which should make both of you cautions of bloating pots together without having a really good hand to back it up. You've been putting in 70%+ bets, which is aggressive, and should make you cautions of what he could be calling you with after his turn call, especially since you only have TPTK on a paired board.

    If you put a full pot bet in here, you'll have about 28% of your original stack involved, and if he raises you another $15, then you'll have to decide whether to call with another 47% of your remaining $32 with just TPTK, and that's not a good place to be.

    It they raise your modest river bet, then fold and watch them. This would be a stupid bluff, and if they are doing it, then you could have a good shot at them later.
    Last edited by davisrei; 12-17-2012 at 01:05 PM.

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