AJs TPTK vs loose-ish unknown

villain is pretty much unknown, about 30-20 less than 30 hands and a few of those shorthanded. No real reads

all streets?

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10) 40bb
UTG+1 ($25.70) 103bb
MP1 ($32.46) 130bb
MP2 ($20.79) 83bb
daven (MP3) ($43.42) 174bb
CO ($11.53) 46bb
BTN ($25) 100bb
SB ($26.95) 108bb
BB ($50.50) 202bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) daven is MP3
4 folds, daven raises to $0.50, 3 folds, BB calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10, 2 players)
BB checks, daven bets $0.80, BB calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.70, 2 players)
BB checks, daven bets $2.40, BB calls $2.40

River: ($7.50, 2 players)
BB checks, daven bets $??,

5.5 river imo

I would bet about $3 here. The reason is that, while it looks like your opponent was chasing a flush that busted, it's possible that that chase included a 5 that has now tripled up.

Given your aggression throughout the hand, I just can't see a larger bet being called by much of anything unless they're holding something that has you beaten.

A $3 bet will do two things for you. It looks like a value bet (it is), so your opponent will be less likely to raise you as a bluff and force you to risk a larger portion of their stack, but the 3.15 to 1 odds might induce a slightly worse hand to call.

The other reason has to do with your stack size. You're both deep stacked on a table of mostly normally and short stacked players, which should make both of you cautions of bloating pots together without having a really good hand to back it up. You've been putting in 70%+ bets, which is aggressive, and should make you cautions of what he could be calling you with after his turn call, especially since you only have TPTK on a paired board.

If you put a full pot bet in here, you'll have about 28% of your original stack involved, and if he raises you another $15, then you'll have to decide whether to call with another 47% of your remaining $32 with just TPTK, and that's not a good place to be.

It they raise your modest river bet, then fold and watch them. This would be a stupid bluff, and if they are doing it, then you could have a good shot at them later.

^^ which busted flush draw? his spades flush draws just hit on the river. If I include his possible flushes, his J combos, his 5 combos and no PP lower than J, Hero has just 50% equity:

Code:

Board: 2s 5d Js 6d 5s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     50.000%      45.95%     04.05%                 34             3.00   { AdJd }
Hand 1:     50.000%      45.95%     04.05%                 34             3.00   { AsKs, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, A5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, QJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, J8s+, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 75s, 65s, 6s4s, 53s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }

It gets better if you include PP like TT or 99 in his river calling range or if you remove some flush combos which you think would not be in his preflop calling range. It gets worse if you remove some of the weaker J combos which would not call preflop.

The river flush card may also deter him from calling a bet with his weaker hands.

meh, I think checking behind may not be horrible here. If you bet anything it should be for thin value, so bet small.

You could argue that he would bet the river if he hit trips or a flush, but he may just as well be planning to check raise.

I'd check it behind OTR. Hero done did got tha good value for TPTK, and still has thin showdown value.

Also, I doubt there's much value in a bet here anyway.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I'd check it behind OTR. Hero done did got tha good value for TPTK, and still has thin showdown value.

Also, I doubt there's much value in a bet here anyway.

what if we bet $1? $2? $4? $6?
if we bet $2 here and get called by worse then that is 8bb, which is about what most winning players hope to win every 100 hands.

fwiw, i was debating $5-$6 (as per p4s) vs $3ish

Originally Posted by davisrei

I would bet about $3 here. The reason is that, while it looks like your opponent was chasing a flush that busted, it's possible that that chase included a 5 that has now tripled up.

there are no flush draws that include a 5 cos we are using only one deck of cards
spades hit on the river

Originally Posted by davisrei

If you put a full pot bet in here, you'll have about 28% of your original stack involved, and if he raises you another $15, then you'll have to decide whether to call with another 47% of your remaining $32 with just TPTK, and that's not a good place to be.

nah, it's snap bet-fold

Originally Posted by daven

what if we bet $1? $2? $4? $6?
if we bet $2 here and get called by worse then that is 8bb, which is about what most winning players hope to win every 100 hands.

My first instinct was to bet $2.50... but I ruled that out on account the flush came in, the board paired and TPTK is not a hand that gets 3 streets of value very often.

At $4+, Hero is bluffing and will rarely get called by worse.

There might be a sweet spot between $1 and $2 where Villain will call w/ almost any hand and raise only flushes or better.

I guess it comes down to reads and balance. What range of hands would you bet this board this way? Is it wide enough to have a "range" OTR?

I feel that missing thin value on rivers is probably one of my biggest leaks... I'm not good at figuring out the right times to go for it.

Originally Posted by daven

there are no flush draws that include a 5 cos we are using only one deck of cards

You should've mentioned that in the OP.

Don't like the min raise in the hijack pre, especially given how deep we are. BTN definitely fine to min raise, CO too depending on nittiness of blinds.

Flop and turn fine imo.

Would be madness not to value bet river (b/f obv). I like $5.00-$5.50 as there are plenty of jacks and stubborn middle pocket pairs in villain's range that won't pay off higher. Lower than that is most likely missing value but also screaming "please don't c/r me on that river".

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I'd check it behind OTR. Hero done did got tha good value for TPTK, and still has thin showdown value.

Also, I doubt there's much value in a bet here anyway.

i seriously doubt that's the case. i like $5-6 on this river.

minraising pre these stakes is a mistake due to rake.