AJ flops top pair - facing heat.

This hand confused me a little. Villain had only been at the table for 8 hands. So far though he'd played some pots calling pre flop raises 3 times probably somewhat lightly both in and out of position.

Thought he was repping a very small range here, but also this isn't a common bluff line at 20NL at all in my experience.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($7.98)
BB ($3.42)
UTG ($20.98)
MP ($4.50)
Hero (CO) ($22.04)
Button ($22.05)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
2 folds, Hero bets $0.70, Button calls $0.70, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.70) A, 5, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, Button raises $2.40, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($6.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

River: ($19.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $9.75

Total pot: $19.50

I think you needed to make the decision about playing a big pot on the turn when the villain follows up with a 2nd pot sized bet. Calling here gets over 1/3 of you stack in the pot, making it impossible for you to profitably fold to his river bet.

I hold my nose and call here.

Yeah I agree. I should probably have posted the hand with the turn as the decision. Lets talk about the turn then. Is he repping enough for us to fold here?

He's repping 2pair or TPTK IMO. Like you said, this isn't really a common bluff line. On the river we beat nothing, and it looks like he's valuebetting. We're calling to split it seems. I think we should fold the turn.

I think the turn is a pretty clear fold. I don't mind peeling the flop raise but when he pots the turn I think we have to give him credit for a hand and fold. I think the worst hand he takes this line for value is AJ, and there are no reasons to assume he is bluffing in this spot.

Originally Posted by Illfavor

He's repping 2pair or TPTK IMO. Like you said, this isn't really a common bluff line. On the river we beat nothing, and it looks like he's valuebetting. We're calling to split it seems. I think we should fold the turn.

This.

Given that the flop is so dry and we're out of position against an unknown, I think it might make sense to check/call the flop for pot control.

As played, turn is a clear fold.

Let's give him some generic ranges, since we don't have any reads on him:

Pre-flop call of raise in position: AA-77, AK-A7, KQ-KT, QJ
Raise on flop: AA-99, 55, AK-A7
Bet on turn: AA, 99, 55, AK-AJ, A9

Question is whether you have equity against that range.

Originally Posted by LawDude

Bet on turn: AA, 99, 55, AK-AJ, A9, As8s, As7s

Question is whether you have equity against that range.

Code:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,188  games     0.005 secs   237,600  games/sec

Board: Ah 5c 9s 5s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	80.976%  	66.50% 	14.48% 	           790 	      172.00   { AA, 99, 55, AJs+, As8s, As7s, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 	19.024%  	04.55% 	14.48% 	            54 	      172.00   { AsJc }

Originally Posted by LawDude

Let's give him some generic ranges, since we don't have any reads on him:

Pre-flop call of raise in position: AA-77, AK-A7, KQ-KT, QJ
Raise on flop: AA-99, 55, AK-A7
Bet on turn: AA, 99, 55, AK-AJ, A9, As8s, As7s

Question is whether you have equity against that range.

Preflop range is definately too narrow. I would throw in 54s+, 22-66, at the very least

I doubt he is raising TT, JJ (I expect QQ/KK to 3bet almost always). Im not sure if we should assume an unknown to raises A7-AT on this board, but its a possibility. Having said that, I would definately weight his range more toward AJ-AK than A7-AT.

I agree with the turn range for the most part, but there is no way we have enough equity against that range to call.

I definitely don't cbet here 100% of the time, I'm not sure about frequency but probably somewhere bet 70 check/call 30.

As played I'd fold the turn almost always, it's a dry board, thus our opponent's range is heavily weighted to air/nut-type hands and at this level w/o a read this is more than likely the nootz.

Timing would be somewhat helpful, was the flop minraise instant, if not I might even fold the flop tbh as sick as that sounds (although I'd never fold IP vs. a c/minraise). Timing on the turn and river bets would help as well, did he instant-slam the pot button on the turn? That could tell us a little bit about his thought process (i.e. I don't think he just snap-pots AT or weaker aces).

Yeah the min raise on the flop was pretty insta as was the pot bet on the turn. The river bet was also about as quick as a $9.75 bet can be, but by that point I felt having called the turn because I felt he was repping such a narrow range that I had to then call the river.

From the timing tells it certainly didn't seem bluffy. The turn was where I messed this up. I didn't think about it nearly enough and acted too quickly. This and oblivious tilting after dropping buyins are my major leaks right now. Also eventually convincing myself to call spots where I orignally feel I have an easy fold - that's the main 3 problems imo.

Be interested if anyone else has trouble with these self convincing donk calls and what they've done to stop it happening?

we're all stations yo, some are just moreso than others

I iz a hudge station, so you're barking up the wrong tree

'Repping a narrow range' usually means they're either a thinking (read:balancing) player and they're bluffing or they're everyone else and they actually have it. I think the best way to look at it is that they're everyone else until proven otherwise.

He's not repping a narrow range. He's repping all kinds of top pair/sets/everything.

A fold here. He could have 2 paired flop or have you outkicked i.e. AK. Basically think a fold here unless you have a strong read otherwise.