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 Originally Posted by Fnord
 Originally Posted by AHiltz
7. You raise 4xbb with kk and get reraised the pot. Do you reraise/allin, or call and hope to see an ace free flop?
1 in 24 he has AA. Push.
I understand this logic and used to subscribe to it. I no longer do.
The chance he has AA is much higher than 1 in 24 and how high depends on the player, stakes, game texture, etc.
What to do here is totally driven by how to win the max from QQ/ JJ/AKish hands.
I am totally missing the "1 in 24" odds comment. are you just taking the 220:1 odds of getting AA and dividing by 9?
If so, that's ridiculous.
We need to take the range of hands that will reraise, and determine what %of these includes AA (there are 6 combinations of all pocket pairs, 4 of any suited cards and 12 of unsuited cards)
If our opponent only reraises QQ-AA and AK, the odds of him having AA are
QQ-6
KK-1 (we have 2 kings)
AK- 8 (we have 2 kings)
AA-6
6/(6+1+8+6) = 6/21 or 2.5 to 1.
As Fnord mentioned we really need to consider how to win the most/lose the least from our specific opponent.
Will he call with hands that we have domintated when we push, or should we see a flop?
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