AA on QTJA4 3-flush board facing river decision

[DoanDiggy]

This one was pretty sick. Villain is a solid 25/18 with an AF of 4.2 over 200 or so hands. We haven't been involved in too many blind battles. I've seen him float the flop (betting the turn) with a decent draw a few times, but no draws missed in this hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($19.50)
BB ($43.60)
Button ($25.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) Q, 10, J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

River: ($8.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $6, Hero ???

The turn check/call was pretty bad since he could be floating me with a wide range. I was thinking that a lot of K hands were in that range though, so I was hoping to fill up on the river and take his stack. In doing so, however, I let any heart hand draw pretty cheaply. I would have probably check/called a non-heart river, but by now I'm losing to any K and any 2 hearts. I would expect Villain to have no less than aces up to bet on this river:

Board: Qh Th Js Ad 4h
	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	20.482%  	20.48% 	00.00% 	            17 	        0.00   { AcAs }
Hand 1: 	79.518%  	79.52% 	00.00% 	            66 	        0.00   { TT+, ATs+, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K9s+, Jh9h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, ATo+, KTo+ }

How is that for a range? Villain has a 15%+ call PFR, so I could see him coming to the flop with a pretty wide range, especially since I only raised 3x and he has position on me. I need 29% to call and my equity looks to be only like 20%, unless you can come up with some other hands he would play this way. I would expect him to raise the flop if he had 2 pair there because he always played strong hands fast against other opponents.

Hmm... thinking this over, I should probably take TT+, AQ, AK, and K9 out of his range since he would probably either be 3-betting or raising the flop with those. Things only get worse when I do that, of course:

Board: Qh Th Js Ad 4h
	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	08.197%  	08.20% 	00.00% 	             5 	        0.00   { AcAs }
Hand 1: 	91.803%  	91.80% 	00.00% 	            56 	        0.00   { AJs-ATs, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K9s+, Jh9h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, AJo-ATo, KTo+ }

Yikes! I don't think there's any way he's bluffing more than 20% of the time in this spot. Seems like a fold.

[kb coolman]

I think your range is way off, honestly. If he's solid, I don't see him calling the flop bet on a flush draw.

I'll lead out witha pot bet on the turn, crushing his drawing odds.

With 3 known Aces, I'll rule any ace from his hand. Given that, I think we can narrow down his range. You have 9 hands in his range that have him holding Ah, and all crush you. That just not realistic here, imo.

[DoanDiggy]

I think your range is way off, honestly. If he's solid, I don't see him calling the flop bet on a flush draw.

But I had seen him play a flush draw exactly like this in another hand.

I'll lead out witha pot bet on the turn, crushing his drawing odds.

Obviously the turn was misplayed. But do you like a bet/fold? I guess the line here is looking for a cheap showdown on a pretty horrible board, with the chance to stack a big hand on a full house river.

With 3 known Aces, I'll rule any ace from his hand. Given that, I think we can narrow down his range. You have 9 hands in his range that have him holding Ah, and all crush you. That just not realistic here, imo.

I think this is a mistake. The fact that there's one more A in the deck doesn't make it impossible for him to have that A. On the AT-AJ hands, PokerStove accounts for the fact that he only has 3 possible combinations of each.

Do you want to try to give a more realistic range then?

[kb coolman]

I'm not saying it's impossible to put him on the Ah, but it's unlikely with 3 blockers. With that in mind, I'm probably going to remove Axs hands from his range when calculating my equity.

If he calls draws down like this, then I wouldn't say he's solid, and we have a highly exploitable weakness for future hands.

My range here consits of Kx. KQ, KJ, KT, and K9 are all good. I'll even allow for low SCs given it's a 3way hand.

As played, I fold this river with a possible flush and 4 straight on the board, given his betting. I just don't see much he calls on the flop that you're ahead of here.

[trapeze]

If villain is solid is not calling you with more tha 10% of his hands from the BB. With that range is very unlikely he is calling with a made hand worse than middle pair or a draw worse than a pair+gutshot on the flop. The turn card is not that good, imo. It makes VERY likely for villain to make a straight. But also it is likely for him to have made two pair. However, I am not quite sure if it is a good spot to value bet, Maybe I would have checked behing.

The river is a tough spot, because the chances that he has two pair/set or flush/straight are almost 50-50.
You have to weigh up how loose is your opponent. Is he shoving here with two pairs or a set? If he is leaning to the tight side, I would muck this hand.

[Outlaw]

I think ya gotta shove turn.. a lot of worse hands call and you have a redraw against the ones beating you.

As played I think ya gotta fold the river here.. what is he going to bet that doesn't beat AA? Two pair checks it down.. a straight checks it down.. a flush bets.

I'm not saying it's impossible to put him on the Ah, but it's unlikely with 3 blockers. With that in mind, I'm probably going to remove Axs hands from his range when calculating my equity.

If he calls draws down like this, then I wouldn't say he's solid, and we have a highly exploitable weakness for future hands.

My range here consits of Kx. KQ, KJ, KT, and K9 are all good. I'll even allow for low SCs given it's a 3way hand.

As played, I fold this river with a possible flush and 4 straight on the board, given his betting. I just don't see much he calls on the flop that you're ahead of here.

you don't have 3 blockers for the Ah because none of the blockers are the ace of hearts

[kb coolman]

LOL...you know what I meant.

LOL...you know what I meant.

yes and it's 100% wrong
he still has as many Ahxh in his range
he just doesn't have any Asxs in his range or any other suit

so you can narrow it down to Ahxh or Khxh
just fold the river

[kb coolman]

Of course Ahxs is in his range, but it isn't likely. Having 10 hands in range in Stove that happen to crush you seems to skew our equity, right?

Of course Ahxs is in his range, but it isn't likely. Having 10 hands in range in Stove that happen to crush you seems to skew our equity, right?

Any hand that bets for value on the river crushes us. Your point? We have a bluff catcher. The question is if he's bluffing.

[kfaess]

I can't think of a single hand that could make that bet on the river that we are ahead of.

I agree with this:

We have a bluff catcher. The question is if he's bluffing.

and this:

I think ya gotta shove turn.. a lot of worse hands call and you have a redraw against the ones beating you.

Also you don't have a full stack so him calling the flop bet with only a FD is less likely I think. But he'll prob still call with combo draws.

Given the history, do you think this guy is good enough to be able to bet this river as a bluff? I havn't seen many micro stakes players who would be able to do it.

[TFTR]

DoanDiggy, don't think. Fold in this situation.
I palyed exctely this hand on Full Tilt freeroll tournament (3 players advance to $80K). There was just 4 players on table (I and another 3).
My hand AA and I think "today it's my day" After the flop I bet like you and the opponent just call.
After the turn was the same.
After the river I had AAA and the rival pushed all in
I paid and lose. He has a flush.

[DoanDiggy]

So then the turn and river here weren't totally spew? If SB can't call me with AAA, there's not much that can call me when I take this line. When he checks the turn, I'm pretty sure that he doesn't have the straight, and when he checks the river I'm pretty sure he doesn't have the flush. Of course, preflop and the flop were still pretty bad, but the minute hand on the clock read ":37" so it figured to be a good time to bluff . That said, I definitely wasn't putting him on a hand as strong as pocket aces.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($19.50)
Hero (BB) ($43.60)
Button ($25.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 6
1 fold, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) Q, 10, J (2 players)
SB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.25, SB calls $2.25

River: ($8.50) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6,
SB said, "AA"
SB said, "<--"
SB said, "you have KQ"
1 fold

Total pot: $8.50 | Rake: $0.40

only works against people who put you on a hand, mind you