AA on paired flop

to my shame i still dont know the best way to play this hand.

opp is 19/10/34 AFq over 91 hands

i have no specific reads on him, seen him twice at SD where he showed a QJs made straight called a UTG open from BUTTON and he shoved turn, and a 77 set (he opened UTG+1, got called by CO with AKo) where he c/c to river on AK792

i bet to get value from AcKc, QQ,KK, maybe even TT,99. there is only one combo left of JJ so i am pretty confident he aint got it. when he called and then ck turn i remembered the way he played his 7set and really blocked. its hard for me to put a opp with his stats on 44/AJ but its not imposible. also what seemed strange to me is that he generally opens 4bb, now he opened just 3bb.

do i over analyze here? is a b 2/3 /f here bad? should i just c/f? doesnt c/f here make me too exploitable in spots like this?

we have 6*QQ+6*KK+ 1* AcKc=13 combos i beat and there are
3*44+3*33+JJ+6*AJ=13 combos that i beat... so i would be 50/50 to combos count and stove also gives me 53% equity against AcKc, 44,33,JJ, AJ
i am not sure he is calling 33 on flop if he has it, but i count it just to make sure i miss no combo that beats me
how would you play turn here and why?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP3 ($9.07)
Hero (CO) ($5)
Button ($9.33)
SB ($5.13)
BB ($5.45)
UTG ($5)
UTG+1 ($4.38)
MP1 ($5.65)
MP2 ($14.78)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.15, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97) 4, J, J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.93, UTG+1 calls $0.93

Turn: ($2.83) 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks

Pretty happy to get it in ott. I'd discount AJ and other Jx hands heavily without a specific read he calls 3bets light. Same with 33 and 44. If you do include those then he also has hands like KQcc in his range.

Bet turn, call a shove. If he has a set, JJ or AJ make sure to make a note that he set mines / calls 3b light OOP.

that simple is this hand since no one else gives its opinion? if that's the truth ,then i must be dumber then i thought.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

to my shame i still dont know the best way to play this hand.

I lol'd.

It would be really interesting to hear from some of the higher stakes players because I have questions about this spot too. Not sure if this is right, but this is what I usually do.

Check back flop. There's very little he can call with, I don't want to get raised off my hand and people do bluff raise paired flops. Then I'd usually b/f turn and river, looking for two streets of value. If it was a small card that was paired, then I'd bet all three streets because he could call with alot of worse overpairs.

i want some more experinced player to tell me if discounting 44 here is ok, or i should count that also.
i also wanna know from them what is the best line here?

ck back flop? i hate giving him a free card and if a Q/K comes it kind of cuts my betting or calling
if i get a c/r on flop spots like this? do i call or shove?
how about a c/r on turn on this board?
i really am confused and i would like someone better to light me up on this kind of spots

i mean, just by range assign and stoving i am good 53% of time so i could go/call AI any time cause is EV+, that in theory math.... in practice we all know sometimes you have to fold even if math says call, so maybe they could tell if this is one of those spots.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Bet turn, call a shove. If he has a set, JJ or AJ make sure to make a note that he set mines / calls 3b light OOP.

this

Originally Posted by Razvan729

to my shame i still dont know the best way to play this hand.

You are not going to come across many simpler spots.

Originally Posted by couriermike

I lol'd.

It would be really interesting to hear from some of the higher stakes players because I have questions about this spot too. Not sure if this is right, but this is what I usually do.

Check back flop. There's very little he can call with, I don't want to get raised off my hand and people do bluff raise paired flops. Then I'd usually b/f turn and river, looking for two streets of value. If it was a small card that was paired, then I'd bet all three streets because he could call with alot of worse overpairs.

Please don't check flop or turn. He is c/calling with all his pocket pairs (depending on Raz's image). I would bet 2/3 - 3/4 pot on turn for value.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

we have 6*QQ+6*KK+ 1* AcKc=13 combos i beat and there are
3*44+3*33+JJ+6*AJ=13 combos that i beat... so i would be 50/50 to combos count and stove also gives me 53% equity against AcKc, 44,33,JJ, AJ
i am not sure he is calling 33 on flop if he has it, but i count it just to make sure i miss no combo that beats me
how would you play turn here and why?

If you have 33 and 44 in his range why are you not including other pocket pairs? How would you play QQ in villains position?

Checking or betting the flop depends a great deal on villain, and on hero's image. I think both actions are right sometimes and wrong others. Calling a c/r is very difficult here with AA, it puts us in a horrible spot, so if I think villain is capable of a c/r here with a range that includes jacks and bluffs, I check for pot control.

Having said that, if villain is capable of calling flush draws and small pairs, then I'm definitely betting. I think with his stats, he might peel with a pair, since you can easily have AK, though he seems solid enough to avoid draws on paired boards.

But villain here calls a psb. That is worrying. First of all, I wouldn't bet this large, because I want him to have a wider calling range. A psb just folds out flush draws and small pairs, losing value. He might call stronger pairs like 88+ maybe because your bet looks so much like AK trying to take down the pot now. He probably hasn't got a flush draw now, so on turn I would check, and call most river bets. If he checks river, I guess we have to value bet because he probably has a pair that's calling.

wtf are you people so worried about, just keep putting money in the middle until there is no more money to put in the middle. lol @ being worried about getting c/r'd here. Villain's range is weighed heavily towards 99+, AKcc, AQcc.

Thinking of checking this flop or turn should only ever be done if we think villain's range is superwide, can't handle any heat, AND we think he's massively spewy when shown weakness, but that's such a specific set of circumstances that isn't even close to the case here.

ok, this is all i wanted to here from you guys. i wanted your opinion cause of your experience . i wanted to make sure that with a villain with his stats and the line he has here is ok to b/call AI.

all i am doing here at 5nl is training my range assigning and equity against various types of villains. i post these hand hoping you would confirm my ranges for opps and lines in diff hands and the way i analyze the hand.
ty.

i am a tag

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i am a tag

csb

csb?
whats that mean?

i cant wait to play you guys someday.... and use all your teaching to stack you i am dreaming to much ... right?

^^^ Hey, if you're gonna dream then dream big...my target's Isildur1 (and then I sobered up)