AA overpair vs reg, 4b pot, turn sizing? 25nl

villain is nit 14-8 with 3% 3b, 60% fold to 3b, 5% 4b, 50% fold to both flop and turn c-bets. He sees me as active, prepared to bet. His range is pretty much JJ-AA here, more at the KK end of things.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
hero (UTG) ($61.32)
UTG+1 ($22.35)
MP1 ($29.85)
MP2 ($25.35)
CO ($9.65)
BTN ($13.14)
SB ($10)
BB ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) hero is UTG
hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $2.25, 4 folds, hero raises to $5, MP2 calls $2.75

Flop: ($10.35, 2 players)
hero bets $5, MP2 calls $5

Turn: ($20.35, 2 players)
hero ($51.32)?

Hero bets enough to leave a psb on the river. $11?

Don't really see what the question is here. Ship the remaining $15 on the turn for lots of EV monies.

@ ginger - villain doesn't cover me

Originally Posted by Hoopy

Don't really see what the question is here. Ship the remaining $15 on the turn for lots of EV monies.

question is ship for less than pot now vs get it in over two more streets of betting

Originally Posted by daven

question is ship for less than pot now vs get it in over two more streets of betting

If we think his range is JJ+ then he's not folding to a shove especially if you have an active image and he can put you on draws or air.

Also just from my perspective betting small on the turn and river looks way more like a valuebet than shoving, maybe that's not the case for him though?

So yeah if his is JJ/QQ/KK lets get the money in now.

lol just seen his stack. Make it 2 streets then so he feels priced in. $6.50/$8.50

Get it in over two streets.

just ship turn after calling flop like all of his range is already stacking on this card

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

just ship turn after calling flop like all of his range is already stacking on this card

I agree, I would hate for an A or a Q fall on the riv and him hero fold kings(not likely i know but nits gonna nit). I don't think you need to fuck about, he'll know he's committed what ever you bet.

Bet like, $10-12 so he has like nothing behind and thus isn't folding river regardless.

Jam? I mean you pretty much made it as standard as possible other than the 4b sizing. I would be 4 betting huge for value and never 4b bluff if villain's 3b's 3%, since his range should be super polarized to the nuts pre.

i seriously doubt many people, especially boring nits, 3bet JJ or even QQ in MP vs an UTG raise at FR. they certainly didn't 12 months ago. on the turn, seeing as he is dead to two outs almost all of the time, and he never has any air to bluff with, i guess we just have to choose the line that looks the most FOS, aka the line which he will most gladly stick his last $15 in with. so i guess it's between
1 - small on turn, rest on river
2 - jam turn
3 - check/call turn, jam river if it checks through
4 - check/jam turn, jam river if it checks thruogh

i think 1 is good if you suspect villain can't handread for shit and just sees his KK and lolpotodds and so calls it off. i think it's bad if he can handread at all and knows you will never take a small/small line with a bluff into his current range

2 isn't good. probably better than #1 because he will probably call it off with the same range, and jamming the turn might make him more inclined to commit because of our bluffy image, and jamming the turn is more credibly a bluff than our option #1 if he can handread at all.

3 and 4 are almost effectively the same, unless you think he will bet/fold with these stacks. i imagine most villains will talk themselves into calling it off if they bet, despite the fact you are never bluffing. i will say that i like checking this turn card if you suspect he will check back QQ+ most of the time. because the bet/check/shove is probably the most spastic line we can take and is in line with our spazzy image. and it's not like we need to be worried about giving free cards to two outs. but we need to know he will check back a reasonable frequency in order to be able to take that line.

tbh i think it's pretty close between the 4, but i'm leaning towards just jamming the turn as being my preference for the above stated reasons. this post definitely ended up too long for how simple my point was. probably even convoluted as a result.

edit: glad most of the BC agrees with me on #2 being best

I do think it matters slightly because a funky card could come off and while you obviously will never have a straight on this board and almost never a flush he might talk himself into folding KK on a stupid card, so jam turn.

Originally Posted by baudib

I do think it matters slightly because a funky card could come off and while you obviously will never have a straight on this board and almost never a flush he might talk himself into folding KK on a stupid card, so jam turn.

That's probably the most convincing argument for shoving the turn.

make your plan for how many streets you want this hand to play out over on the flop not the turn

id check against someone aggro, maybe. if this guy is a nit he just has kings so shove.

Bigger 4b pre? It's not like you're ever going to be bluffing in this spot ever. Then again you have AA and his range is like 3 different hands, so it's not like you HAVE to charge him a whole bunch to see the flop.

As played, shove. He has KK and MAYBE AKdd; the best way to not get his stack is to check and have any of the large amount of scare cards hit.

EDIT: He doesn't have AKdd, not like I thought it was that likely in the first place.

Originally Posted by surviva316

have any of the large amount of scare cards hit.

there are probably 3 of these at most depending on whether has has aces or kings. i'm not saying checking is necessarily good, but fear of one of 3/46 or 4/46 cards falling which kills our action or makes us the worse hand isn't really a massive factor in that decision imo

AA overpair vs reg, 4b pot, flop sizing?

fyt

it's too small vs almost anyone, for sure with read given

Originally Posted by drmcboy

fyt

it's too small vs almost anyone, for sure with read given

good point, if he calls $5 he calls $7 and if I want to get it in over two then he can't fold turn after calling $7 - cheers.

similar to what m2m was getting at when saying flop is decision point for 2 streets or 3 I guess?

I also think 4bet is a little small, flop can be a tiny bit bigger then. I do think it's quite sexy the way it is but the last bet is the best bit so if more was in he's much less likely to fold given the price.
Ps I'm drunkered

I'd check