AA overpair - simple flop fold? 25nl

villain is 13-9 over decent sample. He has raised 10% of flop c-bets, has a pretty high W$WSD and i have notes that he fastplays nut hands on wet boards.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($7)
Hero (UTG) ($25.35)
UTG+1 ($25.86)
MP1 ($17.41)
MP2 ($28.44)
CO ($25)
Button ($8.07)
SB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $0.85, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.85, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 4, 10, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, MP2 raises to $4,

Reraise him. Make it big. Try to get him to give up now. You have top pair anyways.

Originally Posted by PokerWang

Reraise him. Make it big. Try to get him to give up now. You have top pair anyways.

He's not folding a better hand than us, so why would we want him to fold?

Against sets and a few fds you've got about 22% equity. Not pretty. Maybe there's some QQ, JJ but rarely.

His sizing is oddly small so it looks like a set trying to extract or maybe he is taking a cheap stab with his 99 or JJ? With 10% raise cbet it is also unlikely he does it with a flush draw, I guess.

Even if we give him JJ for a JJ-TT,88,44 range our equity is only 40% so fold I guess.

Look back in your DB and try to see if he has shown down hands where he had a draw or medium overpair on the flop to see how he played them. Make a note.

edit: Daven please look at my recent AJs hand, I would value your input on that one.

With those reads I don't see any reason to do anything but fold here. It'd be even easier if that Ah was Ad but regardless raising is atrocious and calling to play OOP facing what is likely at least 1 more barrel seems like a super meh spot drawing to two outs one of which puts the part of his range that we currently beat ahead of us.

assuming he has a standard 3bet stat (ie 2.6% or more), i'm folding.

cheers guys.
I thought this hand might be interesting, pointing out that it is sometimes good to fold aces something i'm pretty sure most of the bc struggle with when actually playing the hand rather than analysing outside of game time?

@RPM and tino - yep, this guy's 3b and overall style discount KK here, and also discount him raising JJ.

Originally Posted by daven

something i'm pretty sure most of the bc struggle with when actually playing the hand rather than analysing outside of game time?.

currently working on it

When I read these threads and responses it just makes me realize how much I have to learn about poker!

So when I play with pokerstove and give villain a range {KK-TT,88,44} I get this:

26,730 games 0.016 secs 1,670,625 games/sec
Board: 4d Td 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.448% 61.45% 00.00% 16425 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 38.552% 38.55% 00.00% 10305 0.00 { KK-TT, 88, 44 }

Just trying to figure out what it is that I am obviously missing here? Is my range messed up or what?

Got a good explaination in IRC!

care to share it?

Originally Posted by rpm

care to share it?

This pretty much sums up the conversation which took place in IRC

Originally Posted by daven

cheers guys.

@RPM and tino - yep, this guy's 3b and overall style discount KK here, and also discount him raising JJ.

The first question here is can we include KK or even QQ in his raising range = what's his 3bet%? Also, how aggressive is he normally on the turn? Are we likely to face another bet or not? Is there anything significant about your current image at the table? Lastly, is there is any reason for there to be air in his range?

I feel when anyone is repping this narrow of a range, its important to at least consider the above before folding "by default". That said, I am baked so yeah...

13/9 don't raise JJ on flops like this nor QQ and they 3bet KK. He prob doesn't even have Axs in his range so really this is a snap fold for me. If he was a more creative tag/lag like 18/16 ... then maybe and even then I like to see 23/18 before I consider this a ship over.

With those stats/reads i would fold....then i wud ship my ass to pokerstars where the rake/RB (especially for FR) makes it easier to earn $