AA faces flop shove

limited history on villain, ~30 hands, starting to shape up a bit loose passive though, no reads

limp call say low-mid pp, sc though given his loose tendencies I think his range is wider than this, as play went on his stats widened to around 50/3 but i ofcourse didnt have that info during this hand.

NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($6.27)
BB ($12.78)
UTG ($5.56)
UTG+1 ($4.60)
Hero ($16.35)
MP1 ($7.20)
MP2 ($5.65)
CO ($11.07)
BTN ($9.35)

Dealt to Hero A A

UTG calls $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.40

FLOP ($1.15) 6 4 2

UTG checks, Hero bets $0.80, UTG raises to $5.06 (AI), Hero?

i feel like his range is probably sets, low over pairs, flushes, nut flush draw. I don't feel like I can accurately assess his range because i tend to be wrong in these kind of situations, but what i have run through stove says its probably a marginal call. I tend to find myself getting stacked in these situations though so am being wary of getting stuck on my AA/KK

I'm hesitant to give an opinion here.. as I'm still figuring a lot of this stuff out myself, but a couple things stick out to me.

First, limping UTG like that makes me put low pocket pairs totally in his range, so I think a set here is very possible.

Secondly, if there is one thing I have learned in these past few weeks with loose players at 10nl, they don't shove in places like that without a hand. At least they don't against me anyway.. so I think I'm cursing at him and folding there.

I am more comfortable with that decision after seeing what his stats would come to show.. in my opinion he's more likely to call then shove with less than a set.

Three things. 1. You called him loose passive. 2. A very wet flip. 3. He shoved. What range could a loose passive villain shove with?

I don't see how you can fold here...

1)
Hand 0: 55.169% 54.51% 00.66% 223407 2710.50 { AA }
Hand 1: 44.831% 44.17% 00.66% 181032 2710.50 { 88-22, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, As9c, As9d, As9h, As8c, As8d, As8h, As7c, As7d, As7h, As6c, As6d, As6h, As5c, As5d, As5h, As4c, As4d, As4h, As3c, As3d, As3h, Ks9c, Ks9d, Ks9h, Ks8c, Ks8d, Ks8h, Ks7c, Ks7d, Ks7h, Qs9c, Qs9d, Qs9h }

And yeah, I do believe bad villains will open limp/call this wide preflop, in whatever position.

2) His stack

3) You need ~30% to call I think

Originally Posted by EasyPoker

I don't see how you can fold here...

1)
Hand 0: 55.169% 54.51% 00.66% 223407 2710.50 { AA }
Hand 1: 44.831% 44.17% 00.66% 181032 2710.50 { 88-22, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, As9c, As9d, As9h, As8c, As8d, As8h, As7c, As7d, As7h, As6c, As6d, As6h, As5c, As5d, As5h, As4c, As4d, As4h, As3c, As3d, As3h, Ks9c, Ks9d, Ks9h, Ks8c, Ks8d, Ks8h, Ks7c, Ks7d, Ks7h, Qs9c, Qs9d, Qs9h }

And yeah, I do believe bad villains will open limp/call this wide preflop, in whatever position.

2) His stack

3) You need ~30% to call I think

..seems like if the flop is then you cant include any of those card in the villains range. Also, you cant assume that a loose passive will shove all in with a draw or weak overpair. They will call with less than nut hands. The flop shove range is completely different to the preflop limp call range.

Originally Posted by EasyPoker

And yeah, I do believe bad villains will open limp/call this wide preflop, in whatever position.

i don't doubt that, i've seem more than enough 73/2 villains to accept that any 2 cards bar AA/KK is an acceptable preflop range here when playing a loose passive. Infact this villain later open limped AQ from the button.

Originally Posted by scott_owen

Infact this villain later open limped AQ from the button.

it's a drawing hand ldo

Originally Posted by scott_owen

..seems like if the flop is then you cant include any of those card in the villains range. Also, you cant assume that a loose passive will shove all in with a draw or weak overpair. They will call with less than nut hands. The flop shove range is completely different to the preflop limp call range.

yea sorry with that range i was just giving an example of what i think the type of shit villain would limp call with pre flop - i just got lazy by not narrowing it there...

incidentally, id have assumed that stove would auto nullify replicated cards...be surprising if not

/

even against a tighter stacking off range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.654% 47.88% 00.78% 112338 1819.50 { AA }
Hand 1: 51.346% 50.57% 00.78% 118653 1819.50 { 88-66, 44, 22, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 5s3s, As9c, As9d, As9h, As8c, As8d, As8h, As7c, As7d, As7h, As6c, As6d, As6h, As5c, As5d, As5h, As4c, As4d, As4h, As3c, As3d, As3h }

u have enough to call

Equity vs his shoving range isn't good enough to call here (need 38%). I'd weight his range much more towards set/flushes than Asx type hands given that he looks passive so far.

Even vs 7s7c we're still only 55-45.

Originally Posted by HoopyDude

Equity vs his shoving range isn't good enough to call here (need 38%). I'd weight his range much more towards set/flushes than Asx type hands given that he looks passive so far.

Even vs 7s7c we're still only 55-45.

I don't think 30 hands is enough to say either way tbh. Are you saying it's not at all possible that villain shoves Asx type hands with a 50bb stack?

pretty sure he has a set approximately never here. I'd call and shrug if he has a flush.

Originally Posted by Donachello

pretty sure he has a set approximately never here.

How come?

Originally Posted by EasyPoker

How come?

Someone playing loose/passive isn't going to shove unless he thinks he has the nuts or near to it. Just because he's running 50/3 doesn't mean he's stupid enough to shove here without the flush or straight flush. With his PF stats I wouldn't be surprised to see AX or even 53

Also, you cant assume that a loose passive will shove all in with a draw or weak overpair. They will call with less than nut hands. The flop shove range is completely different to the preflop limp call range.

Scott, It looks like you answered your own question. Try to figure out what range that you really believe he'd shove with in this spot. Once you do that I think you'll see that it's a fold and not even close.

/...

Originally Posted by Shotglass

Someone playing loose/passive isn't going to shove unless he thinks he has the nuts or near to it. Just because he's running 50/3 doesn't mean he's stupid enough to shove here without the flush or straight flush. With his PF stats I wouldn't be surprised to see AX or even 53.

DC, was this your reasoning?

Originally Posted by Shotglass

Someone playing loose/passive isn't going to shove unless he thinks he has the nuts or near to it. Just because he's running 50/3 doesn't mean he's stupid enough to shove here without the flush or straight flush. With his PF stats I wouldn't be surprised to see AX or even 53



Scott, It looks like you answered your own question. Try to figure out what range that you really believe he'd shove with in this spot. Once you do that I think you'll see that it's a fold and not even close.

we need over 37.7% equity vs his range for the call if the wine i've consumed hasn't disabled my basic math abilities. Against a range of overpairs, sets, every possible flush combination (don't these guys play any two soooted?) and pair+As, pair+Ks, we still only have 37.1%. Are there more likely hands we can put into opp's range that can tilt this to a call? Or can we remove stuff like 73s?

we basically need the opp to check/shove here with a bare As, no pair, to make this a call...

bet sizing on this flop with this hand is pretty atrocious

Originally Posted by bikes

bet sizing on this flop with this hand is pretty atrocious

Your saying should be more pot less 2/3rd pot right? I usually cbet 2/3rds so I try to keep things uniform to avoid being overly transparent.

For the record I folded. Was unsure about how accurate my range was and thought I might be able to find a slightly +ev call. I feel a little stupid for not really getting it before but I think review of this hand has caused a click in my brain about understanding ABCD ranges. I've been failing to include the current streets action in my decision, only the previous ones.ie. acting as if this villain would've shoved his entire preflop range rather than recognising that parts of his range will only call or only fold, or only raise/shove as was the case here.

he has to many flush combos/sets so my call can be + EV. if it wasnt a c/r and just a bet i would call and reevaluate turn.

Originally Posted by scott_owen

Your saying should be more pot less 2/3rd pot right? I usually cbet 2/3rds so I try to keep things uniform to avoid being overly transparent.

Bet sizing should be dictated by the texture of the board and how his ranges will react. Think about how you would bet a value hand on this board. Size you bets to simultaneously get value with your best hands, protect your stack with your middling hands, and cheaply bluff with your air. Betting every board a certain amount regardless of texture just because you want all bets to appear uniform is a poor way to appear balanced as your opponents different holdings are going to react in different ways.

Originally Posted by Donachello

Betting every board a certain amount regardless of texture just because you want all bets to appear uniform is a poor way to appear balanced as your opponents different holdings are going to react in different ways.

Indeed. It took me a long time to get out of the "standard" habit of betting 70% of the flop so I give away less info. But DC nails it, board texture and villain's range should determine our bet size, not our hand. So if we're betting properly, then we don't give away info on our hand with bet size, it's just the fact we bet that should give info away.

Ok, I already know I need to work on better actions based on board texture. Hadn't really considered bet sizing though, just whether or not to bet. I typically only alter my bet sizing to a lower amount when I have a clear read that op will fold to any bet.

So then was I right that your saying this flop bet should've been bigger?

snapcall or am i dumb?

kinda stupid line here, he will have all that stuff mentioned alot, and then he will have q4o sometimes

Originally Posted by bikes

bet sizing on this flop with this hand is pretty atrocious

How much would you bet here, and why?