AA from ep vs drawy board

[Zorkion]

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (8 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($9.88)
UTG+1 ($1.14)
MP1 ($4.08)
MP2 ($3.80)
CO ($4.41)
Button ($3.89)
SB ($2.55)
BB ($3.77)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $0.12, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.12, 2 folds, Button calls $0.12, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.42) 8, 9, 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.02) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.51, Hero calls $0.51

River: ($2.04) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button raises to $2.96 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $2.04 | Rake: $0.13

thoughts, mates? villain is an unknown

[rpm]

it may be overly-nitty, but i'm check/folding the turn here. seems like so much of whatever he calls the flop with becomes a hand >1 pair on this turn.

[Hoopy]

I'd pot the flop and c/f the turn.

[Nekrogovner]

For some rigged reason villain always has a J or full house in this spot.

[Shotglass]

Pretty much what Hoopy wrote.

[rpm]

yeah agree with hoopy re flop sizing. didn't really look at that upon first reading. villain has no idea what different bet sizings from you mean on this flop. and he probably doesn't change his calling range to anything $0.25 up to $0.45. so bump it up and get more value from all the 9x, 66, pair+gutter, pair+OESD, naked OESD type hands (all of which have pretty decent equity against you)

[Zorkion]

but if we pot bet the flop, doesnt that necessarily define our range as non-drawing hands, eg overpair or se. and since villain has position, its easily conceivable that he could very well just float the flop, and vbet/semibluff/bluff any scare cards?

ill try to do some maths to look into this further, but i gotta head out to class now

[Shotglass]

but if we pot bet the flop, doesnt that necessarily define our range as non-drawing hands, eg overpair or se. and since villain has position, its easily conceivable that he could very well just float the flop, and vbet/semibluff/bluff any scare cards?

By potting the flop it reps a made hand as the norm for continuation bets are ~60% of the pot. That bet sizing should polarize his range (assuming that he can think). If he continues we're either getting bluffed or beat. Personally, on this board I'd be less worried about getting bluffed off the best hand and more concerned with trying to lose the smallest amount possible (~50c vs ~93c) because it becomes increasingly less likely that you have the best hand as more streets are played.


If you're worried about a float otf then fire a 2nd. jk Don't do that on this board. It's just as spewy as the turn call.

[rpm]

but if we pot bet the flop, doesnt that necessarily define our range as non-drawing hands, eg overpair or se. and since villain has position, its easily conceivable that he could very well just float the flop, and vbet/semibluff/bluff any scare cards?

ill try to do some maths to look into this further, but i gotta head out to class now

i don't expect anyone at 4nl to be doing stuff like this. for the most part, your opponents will be calling way more than they are betting or raising. and it is for that reason that we should be looking to bet more on this flop because we get value versus a weak/passive calling range, and can probably safely fold to a flop raise on the assumption that it's very rarely a bluff of any kind.