AA Crappy river spot

Villain just sat down, but he's a goldstar so i figure he's played a bit before.

NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($75.83)
BB ($16.40)
Hero ($27.16)
UTG+1 ($61.20)
CO ($34.78)
BTN ($47.64)

Dealt to Hero

Hero raises to $1, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.75

FLOP ($2.10)

BB checks, Hero bets $1.65, BB calls $1.65

TURN ($5.40)

BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB calls $3.75

RIVER ($12.90)

BB bets $10 (AI),

I think KQ and sets of 2s/4s are in the value range of this shove...he might also be shoving some AJhh type hand...call or fold?

ok lets say he is shoving kq, akhh, 22,44, and ajhh and athh

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.750% 18.75% 00.00% 3 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 81.250% 81.25% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 44, 22, AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, KQo }


pretty clear fold....shitty spot

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

ok lets say he is shoving kq, akhh, 22,44, and ajhh and athh

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.750% 18.75% 00.00% 3 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 81.250% 81.25% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 44, 22, AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, KQo }


pretty clear fold....shitty spot

I wouldn't include a set and if we add KQo we should add KQs.

Originally Posted by kmind

I wouldn't include a set and if we add KQo we should add KQs.

yea my bad i meant to add kqs, when you do our equity is at 16%, and all the other calculations i posted had included kqs as well.

I'd like to see the flop bet be more like 1.85-1.90. That way you can essentially get him committed by the turn. a 1.85 flop bet makes the pot on the turn 5.80 which you can then bet like 4.60 into. And if he just calls there then he is a moron. But based on his stack size it's pretty clear he sucks, so he's probably never folding a Q which allows you to bet bigger.

As played I probably fold but I think it's going to be closer than the above range given.

With $33 in the pot and $10 to call, I don't know that you can fold. It comes down to guessing whether the range of hands he would have played this way from the BB is large enough for you to have pot odds, which only requires winning just under 25% of the time.

There's 23 in the pot, not 33.

I think its a clear call.. a lot of Kx of hearts hands here might value shove the river.. hoping you'll call with a queen.

I don't think calling here is that big of a mistake unless he is a complete nit. But since he is a random that has less than a 100bb starting stack, I am assuming he is a fish and would make stupid bluffs or shoves with Kx hands to make calling profitable.

Originally Posted by Outlaw

There's 23 in the pot, not 33.

I think its a clear call.. a lot of Kx of hearts hands here might value shove the river.. hoping you'll call with a queen.

I don't think calling here is that big of a mistake unless he is a complete nit. But since he is a random that has less than a 100bb starting stack, I am assuming he is a fish and would make stupid bluffs or shoves with Kx hands to make calling profitable.

And lastly, its button vs blinds.. who gets AA on the button? Your hand is inherently underepped.

what are you guys talking about he is utg....

that being said, he needs ~ 30% equity to make calling EV+...maybe hes calling a utg raise with kt or kj of hearts (but honestly i doubt it) ... but if you include those two combos our ev goes up to ~ 25% so we still need him to be bluffing some of his AQ's or a few more combos of flush draws, in order for this to be EV+

My mistake. Folding is probably okay, but not a big mistake either way.

Kmind is right about the sets. What player c/c two streets on a board with any speck of coordination? He can easily be betting a wide range here as a block. There are a lot of worse 1 pair hands too that he opens the river for value. Additionally the k is a scare card he's likely to bet.

Fwiw opp put you on aq and probably sees you as nitty. More reasons to call.
Nits at this level are what make being aggressive so profitable. Easy FE ftw

Call.

kind of tough spot because we know nothing of this villain and it could easily be spew or his standard set line

Board: Qh 2h 4c 7s Kc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.769% 30.77% 00.00% 8 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 69.231% 69.23% 00.00% 18 0.00 { 77, 44, 22, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, KQs, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, KQo }

that was the range i put him on before even calculating the required equity (which is obv. 30%). i like a call here, he could easily be spazzing with any two for all we know. he could also have some more flush draws like 56s-JTs which would swing our decision clearly towards a call.

jesus christ he doesn't ALWAYS have KQ exactly here. putting unknown half-stackers on one-hand ranges ftw!