AA @ 10NL FR

When I played this, I thought it was a snap call.

Main Villain is 8/5/0 (40 hands)

Preflop his range consists of 22-qq (and may include kk) AQs,AK again AK and such may no be present.

So on flop I am way ahead of his range. And even if a make a tight calling range of 88,tt,66,99,jj,qq I am still a 59% favorite.

If I want to be very conservative and get rid of everything but sets and keep 99 in then my equity is 37%. And at this point I have 3.25:1 to call. or 23.5%. Thus this is snap call.

If only sets are in his then my equity is 4.5%.

What do you guys think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($13.30)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($18.15)
Hero (MP1) ($10.20)
MP2 ($10)
MP3 ($5.20)
CO ($13.35)
Button ($13.30)
SB ($9.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.75) 8, 10, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.40, MP2 calls $1.40, Button calls $1.40

Turn: ($5.95) 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $3, MP2 raises to $8.10 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $5.10

River: ($22.15) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $22.15 | Rake: $1.05

yeah, on Turn his range is prob 88, TT, QQ, KK, AA
You have to call imo. Sucks if he haz TT but thats why we have BR.

Just call now given that price. He could show up with JJ or QQ here very easily.

Board: Tc 8s 6h 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.10% 00.00% 12496089 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.10% 00.00% 12496174 0.00 { QQ-TT, 88, 66, 44 }


Why would you leave in 99 and not JJ and QQ btw?

Carroters 44 is almost never in his range after the flop. Generally JJ-QQ would prefer to call it down rather than reraise on the turn, a reraise on the flop would make more sense for their hands.

i think this is his range on the turn:

Board: 8s Tc 6h 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 270 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 390 0.00 { JJ-TT, 88, 66 }

against which you need a price of 3:2 or better to call his shove, which you do have. i think this guy 3bets queens preflop, but even if it is still in his preflop and flop smooth calling range, that just makes our equity better.

not sure if JJ would prefer to raise the flop to get you to define your hand than to call 3 barrels with an overpair, so maybe that can be discounted.

The real issue is by the time the turn comes and I bet I have to be X% certain that he doesn't only have sets.

In another words there are 6 combos for sets. if there is even one hand out there that he does this that's not a set I already am pot stuck.

I didn't mean to include 44 lol, but yeah I still think JJ or QQ plays this way often enough for you to call here. If he calls flop with these hands, he probably will just shove over your turn bet a fair amount since he's not folding either way.

I'm not sure why you assume he will frequently raise these on the flop, given that BU will fold most of the time and you don't stack off with much worse.

I think you can at the very least stick JJ in there, which makes folding turn a mistake.