A3o in BB,hit set,now what?

Villain has been in every hand since I sat at the table and has won a ton of tiny pots and a couple of biggish ones.He has shown second best hands at showdown with big pots.He's not completely maniacal but I can only put him on a range of ANY two cards.

Note:My computer and poker tracker hate each other so I'm using the instant hand histories to get an idea about villains' ranges during play.


PokerStars Game #44556690916: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2010/05/24 11:47:10 PT [2010/05/24 14:47:10 ET]
Table 'Phyleus III' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: satisfire ($0.80 in chips)
Seat 2: Vanzettix ($3.22 in chips)
Seat 3: SEKACH.888 ($0.64 in chips)
Seat 4: delfina_47 ($5.40 in chips)
Seat 5: Anzoo15 ($1.92 in chips)
Seat 6: SUPAHAOLE666 ($5.07 in chips)
Seat 7: VictorPOA ($3.25 in chips)
Seat 8: r4t5y6 ($2.88 in chips)
Seat 9: ieshua3000 ($0.66 in chips)
Anzoo15: posts small blind $0.01
SUPAHAOLE666: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SUPAHAOLE666 [Ac 3d]
VictorPOA: calls $0.02
r4t5y6: folds
ieshua3000: folds
satisfire: folds
Vanzettix: folds
SEKACH.888: folds
delfina_47: folds
Anzoo15: folds
SUPAHAOLE666: checks
*** FLOP *** [As Jd 5d]
SUPAHAOLE666: bets $0.04
VictorPOA: calls $0.04
*** TURN *** [As Jd 5d] [Qs]
SUPAHAOLE666: bets $0.10
VictorPOA: raises $0.10 to $0.20
SUPAHAOLE666: calls $0.10
*** RIVER *** [As Jd 5d Qs] [Ad]
SUPAHAOLE666: bets $0.34
VictorPOA: raises $2.65 to $2.99 and is all-in

So I don't think any thing here is that bad except for a really weak river bet but I'm up for any criticism(constructive or otherwise).

What I really want to know is if I should be paying a flush off here.

Board: As 5d Jd Qs Ad
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.483% 58.55% 09.94% 548 93.00 { A3o }
Hand 1: 31.517% 21.58% 09.94% 202 93.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, A2o+, K2o }

I'm sure I need more of villains range in here and I'm probably missing some more info but I'm still trying to figure this crap out.

Thanks for bearing with me.

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($3.25)
UTG+1 ($2.88)
MP1 ($0.66)
MP2 ($0.80)
MP3 ($3.22)
CO ($0.64)
BTN ($5.40)
SB ($1.92)
Hero ($5.07)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 9 players) Hero is BB
UTG calls $0.02, 7 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.05, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.04, UTG calls $0.04

Turn: ($0.13, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.10, UTG raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.10

River: ($0.53, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.34, UTG goes all-in $2.99

Final Pot: $3.86

if hes been in every pot, how active is he post?

Normally, id probably fold to the turn raise and not think much of it. Against this guy i might float sometimes..but it depends on if its standard for thim to be aggressive postflop or not. if hes usually on the passive side then im foldign pretty quickly...because our bet is trying to get calls from jacks and queens, not other aces and not stronger than top pair type hands. because of that, id probably bet the turn smaller tbh.

river, is hard to say. honestly i can expect alot of his stronger hands checking back if we check (like QJ for instance) but i expect Ax to always bet/raise as well as his other nut hands that we're crushed by. he might bluff sometimes i suppose...but i dont think enough worse hands are really gonna call if we lead. i probably c/c a smallish bet.

as to being worried about a flush: meh, i suppose, its another hand thats in his range that we cant beat i suppose, but this doensnt look a whole lot like a flush draw line imo

what i mean on how aggro hes been...theres several types of players that might be described as a maniac. it could be a guy that just bet bet bets when he raised pre but it could also be someone who likes to raise every street. regardless though, our hand is pretty much a bluff catcher

Yeah, is he normally a maniac on all streets or is it just preflop he tends to do this? Although, there is a lot of hands that beat us here, depends on his historical play on these streets if you have that info.

well the UTG limp is pretty terribad.. how does he usually come in preflop? open or limp? and is he at all positionally aware from what you picked up? The answer to those two questions may give you a better idea of his range preflop and give you a better idea of what you're up against on the river. Is it at all possible he could be "slowplaying" AK/AQ this way, both preflop and postflop?

Your range seems rediculous, where do you get "but I can only put him on a range of ANY two cards." from?

Depending how you are defining him as a maniac.. I can see the villain raise on the turn defining his hand, and giving more weight towards a made straight, possibly 2 pair, etc... he appears to have hit some strength on the turn, and unless he had a multi-draw I'm not particularly afraid of the flush here. If he's trying to conceal his hand with a raise on the turn, this is not the type of player I'm thinking of.. River seems like a continued aggression from his turn play. I'm not as afraid of a flush as the straight (KT) showing strength, but trying to build the pot on the turn, or a stronger ace, the only ones that concern us are AK, AQ, AJ, A5 incidently with an ace already, this only makes up 13 total hand combinations (4x AK, 3x AQ, 3x AJ, 3x A5). If he is a slight maniac, this raise could also be a continuation of 2 pair+ hit on the turn (AQ (3x - accounted for), QJ (9x), Q5 (9x)), possibly a slow played flop J5 (9x). Or possibly trips hit on the turn QQ (6x). Very possible villain splits here (A2-A4, A6-AT; A total of 8x4 = 24x combinations). Again, it could be a multi-draw that hit turn and river.. I almost think KdTd makes the most sense based on the line, but it's one hand of a range that might take this line; especially if he is semi-bluffing often. I doubt villain is raising often on a flush draw, probably the situation above, or if he had QdXd. So between QdXd, and KdTd we have 8x combinations. I think this is a fairly logical range, based on flop, turn, river play. I realize that the river makes 2pr bad, but maybe he continues with this, given as this decreases our likelihood of having an ace to him.. Anyways, so many assumptions; I have no idea what this villain is like, just thinking out loud. Given that range...

Board: As Jd 5d Qs Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.205% 32.53% 18.67% 27 15.50 { Ac3d }
Hand 1: 48.795% 30.12% 18.67% 25 15.50 { QQ, A2s+, KdQd, KdTd, QJs, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Q5s, Qd4d, Qd2d, J5s, A2o+, QJo, Q5o, J5o }

Which would be a definite call.. lets remove the 2pr.. and this is only hands that beat or split with us..

Board: As Jd 5d Qs Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.679% 00.00% 27.68% 0 15.50 { Ac3d }
Hand 1: 72.321% 44.64% 27.68% 25 15.50 { QQ, A2s+, KdQd, KdTd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qd4d, Qd2d, A2o+ }

Which would be a definite fold.. it really depends on how much you think he plays 2 pair here.. I really think all the hands I put in the 2nd calculation are always part of his range if he's a "maniac" but depending, he could be much wider. I don't think we add more (at least not many) flush draws to this, as they wouldn't be raising the turn.. Add in hands to my second range as you see fit, and see if you have the EV that you need (you need 2.99/(3.86+2.99-rake) EV to call.. I think rake is 4.7% at this pot size so which is -32c but i think 2c were already taken so.. -30c you need 2.99/(3.86+2.99-30) = 2.99/6.55 = 45.65% EV.

If a reasonable range for the villain shows you with at least this, then call. if not - fold.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Your range seems rediculous, where do you get "but I can only put him on a range of ANY two cards." from?

This.

Villain could be limping any two pre-flop, but you need to redefine villain's range post-flop by the way that he plays the hand and by incorporating any reads you have on him into that decision.

With that being said, min raises on the turn at these stakes usually indicates a very strong hand.

This is easy fold for me.I don't need anybody ranges to fold this hand from BB

Originally Posted by ljove

This is easy fold for me.I don't need anybody ranges to fold this hand from BB

New sig

I don't think he ever has the flush when he raises the turn on that card. I actually think he has QJ for two pair here so call all day. KT is really the only hand in his range that beats you, or a better Ace (incidentally, I would have considered c/c the turn just because there are tons of aces in his range that dominate you)

So...I'll try to sort this hand out and give my thoughts on villain as the hand was played.

Preflop:

I'm sticking to my guns on the any two cards statement.Guaranteed he's limping in with 72o to see a flop.I'm playing super tight preflop right now so A3o isn't a starting hand I'm usually seeing a flop with so my plan is to c/f.

Flop:

I flop TPWK so I figure I can bet the pot and take down the small pot and move on if he folds.I think alot of people at this level are folding here if they don't have an ace in there hand.Villain calls and I automatically put him on a draw.It could be a gutshot but I'm thinking flush draw.

Turn:

I still have him on a flush draw and think I've got the best hand so I bet.Villain minraises so I can narrow him down to a queen.Probably Qdxd based on my thoughts on the flop.I'm with tomato on the fact that a min raise at this level usually means they're strong but I think this villain thinks that any queen is strong especially if he's got a flush draw to back it up.With that in mind I still think I have the best hand and call.(Maybe I should have raised?Dunno.I'm gonna think about that.)

River:

Damn river.If everything I believe here is true then I'm beat.I know it.Should be an easy fold.But I got a set of aces here and villain has been showing up with second best and has been very aggro due to the amount of small pots he won without showdown(Remember I'm using my instant HH to try to get reads right now so I'm looking at it alot).

Note:I'm really trying to wrap my head around the mathmatics involved in poker so my question is the same.If I feel in my gut that I'm beat but have a loose/weak/aggro op and can put him on a wide range of hands that I beat is it right to make the call based on the probability that in the same situation I'm going to win more often than not.

Thnaks for all your input.

there's some stuff to say, for example I think he's much stronger on the turn here than semi-bluffing middle pair and Q high flush draw...

but I want to address this statement because it is a common misconception for micros players:

"I flop TPWK so I figure I can bet the pot and take down the small pot and move on if he folds.I think alot of people at this level are folding here if they don't have an ace in there hand.Villain calls and I automatically put him on a draw.It could be a gutshot but I'm thinking flush draw."

Do you want him to fold? When you bet here you have to understand that you are betting for value. And when you are betting for value it means you are betting the largest amount that the villain will call

Even though he could have a better ace, there are all sorts of hands he will call your vale bet with and you are more than likely ahead. It sounds like you want him to fold, but you have top pair on the flop here, you need to bet for value. I'm of course not saying you're plan for the hand is bet the flop, pot the turn, shove the river for value -- your hand isnt that strong, but you certainly have a good made hand you can bet for value and you want him to call, not fold. This is the point of poker, to extract value out of your good made hands.

I am adamant about it because I used to have the same though process for a long time until my brain finally clicked into gear understanding this concept, and why we bet. Best of luck!

When trying to figure out what he holds, don't worry about narrowing it down to a specific hand -- it will usually be a range of hands. And that range has to be determined using past history -- you don't know if his turn minraise usually means "I have a great hand and I want more money in the pot" or "Hey, I have cards in front of me so I'll raise!"

You're right about the preflop range -- it could be any two cards.

Flop: his call doesn't mean a draw, especially in combination with his turn raise. It is pretty common for a flopped set to call a flop bet IP and then raise on the turn.

By the turn, he either has a made hand that beats a pair of aces or he could be on a flush or straight draw, hoping to semi-bluff you out.

If he does have a set, that means he rivered a full house -- which would also explain his shove on the end.

Your turn play is WTF bad.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Your turn play is WTF bad.

My computer took a crap last week and I just got back up so sorry if this is rehashing a bullshit posting but, could you expand on the WTF bad comment?Should I have 3bet?Folded?Quit playing poker and took up ballroom dancing.You can't spank my ass and not tell me what I did wrong.C'mon.WTF?

It means you're OOP and getting min-raised on the turn with a weak Ace. The turn is decision time here. 3betting is better than calling but folding would be the better option imo. Not sure what you're doing here on the river.

PS - Technically a "set" is when you hold a wired pair and trip up on the board. In this hand you hit "trips" on the river. Two totally different things.