99 on BU vs passive, with river decision

Cake - $0.04 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $10.03
BB: $5.29
UTG: $1.42
UTG+1: $2.15
MP: $1.70
MP+1: $3.27
CO: $1.14
Hero (BTN): $4.25

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has 9 9

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.04, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, SB calls $0.18, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.64, 3 players) Q 6 9
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40, UTG+1 calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.84, 3 players) 7
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.60, SB calls $1.60, fold

River: ($5.04, 2 players) 8
SB bets $2.52, Hero ??


Are we ever folding this?

sb is 45/3, UTG+1 is 63/3

or any other thoughts on the hand?

given that opp is super passive as shown by his stats, what kind of range do we give him on the river?


im thinking preflop range is huge,
flop is something like 66-qq, 78, tj, ,69, 9t+, qt+
turn i imagine to be about the same, but the river donk shove has me kinda confused. given that opp is super passive, do we just assume that he has a flush or straight basically all the time here? i cant really imagine this kind of player making the river play with tptk or some such on such a draw heavy board, especially given my aggression up to then

thoughts?

Do you have any other stats on this guy?

I tend to play 6max so I dont know if the plays much diff from FR but someone with a 45/3 and calls on flop and turn sets off my spidey senses, they're wanting to hit it hard or they'd just be folding, tpgk/straight draw on flop. Im my own experience this kind of guy is jamming the river so he gets paid off and the way played I'd either put him on J10 or he's also got 3 of a kind too. The call call push looks like a draw thats hit!

Saying all this, I've got my L plates on too!

Never folding. 87, 88 make as much sense as QT, JT. And we're getting like 3:1. Not counting combos, but we can call. Its incredibly unlikely he got there with a flush, its restricted to like 3-4 combos or something. Other Tx hands besides JT and QT dont make a lot of sense either. If we assume hes calling with more of these such as T9 or something...then we can also assume hes calling with 98 or 97 cuz theyre essentially the same hand. Queens shouldnt be an option, 66s might be, 88 might be (doubt it) and 77 might be (doubt it). Basically there are way more options of two pair and worse sets that would play the same way than there are of better sets, straights and flushes. Easy Call

Agree with everything JKDS said except for the part about Qs. I've seen this type of player show up with QQ even after limp/calling pre so I don't discount it at all here. Doesn't change much tho. Call.

If villain is stationy, bet more on flop, esp multiway, makes your river decision easier imo

Yeh I never really considered QQ limping here but its totally possible.

Fold and not even close imo.

Fold IMO. 88 and 87 make sort of sense, but only 88 strikes me as worthy of a river shove from a passive player, and there are only 3 combos of 88 out there. Given stats there are plenty of JT, QT, T9, hands out there that a very consistent with a river shove and there are like 32 of those three alone. Club draws with a Q, and from some fish even a 6 or 9 get there, has he peeled one off with 54 on the flop? Combos of hands that beat us that make sense from a 45/6 are probably way more than 3 times those that make sense that we beat.

Adding some subjectivity: when passive fish shove the river, they have it more often than not. (NLHE-T+P). This would lead me to put more probability on the high-end of his range for me.