99 from BB: Noob Fish trying to get away from "Fit or Fold"

First time I post a hand, hopefully this will work.

First time trying to put someone on a range:

Villain. I saw him only play 8 hands: VPiP of 50% and PFR of 25% ... statistically insignificant. I guess I should assume that he is somewhat competent so let's say he has a VPiP of about 23%. Here I am using PokerStove and its little slider: 66+, JTo+, J8s+, Axs, A8o+

My table image: Not sure how to answer this. My VPiP is about 15% and PFR 10%. So guess people see me as quite Tight.

OK, if I put this in PokerStove, my equity is 53% versus the range we gave the Villain.

Therefore, EV= 0.53(0.82)- 0.47(0.25)= +0.3171 And as such, I should Call.

Is this correct?

More questions:
- Should I have donked bet into him post-flop to take the initiative?
- Should I reraise him? pros/cons?



PokerStars - $0.05 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

LP: $5.00
CO: $5.23
BTN: $3.93
SB: $2.00
Hero (BB): $6.00
UTG: $1.93
UTG+1: $4.24
MP: $9.62
MP+1: $3.83

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has 9d 9s

UTG calls $0.05, fold, MP raises to $0.25, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.20, fold

Flop: ($0.57, 2 players) 5d 8c Qc
Hero checks, MP bets $0.25, Hero??????

meh I dont like donking here.

This spot depends on villains cbet%. if he cbets too much, then id call and let him spew, but you hardly have reads so folding is fine.

you can also just call the flop and fold turns that dont improve your hand if he barrels again.

there's alot of options here.

folding is fine.
c/r the small c-bet, they're often weak.
c/c and decide again on the turn.

if you're trying to get away from 'fit or fold', i recommend trying new things when you're in position. position is extremely powerful. the problem with continuing with the hand here, because you're 'ahead of his range', is that there are reverse implied odds. a good villain won't let you get to showdown cheap, alot of cards are scare cards for your hand, and you just can't call down. a c/c and re-evaluate turn is ok, but if you're gonna make a move, do it in position.

donking or c/r'ing turn your hand into a bluff, but here i don't mind a c/r because villain's half pot c-bet practically says he doesn't have it and is willing to fold.

check-fold flop makes you money

Check/folding the flop is fine. In position, floating is an option. Donking isn't that great of a play and check/raising turns your hand in to a bluff and can become a spewy habit. If you have solid notes on villain then taking FPS lines becomes more optimal; but 5nl villains never fold the better hand so taking default lines OOP without reads is usually best.

depends what his cbet% is...if he's cbetting a ton im never folding this flop esp with that sizing.

+1 to what daven and stargrinder said. ( i don't really like my answer now. it's a really fuzzy line between making aggressive read-based plays and morphing into cpt retardo.)

on a related note...
that ev calc isn't right. you can't compare hot'n'cold equity to current pot odds except on the river or when calling all-in. you'd have to use 'effective pot odds', ie how much you could potentially win for the whole hand compared to what it's gonna cost you to get to showdown, not just current call vs current pot, and in no-limit, figuring effective pot odds is very problematic.

Originally Posted by couriermike

+1 to what daven and stargrinder said. ( i don't really like my answer now. it's a really fuzzy line between making aggressive read-based plays and morphing into cpt retardo.)

on a related note...
that ev calc isn't right. you can't compare hot'n'cold equity to current pot odds except on the river or when calling all-in. you'd have to use 'effective pot odds', ie how much you could potentially win for the whole hand compared to what it's gonna cost you to get to showdown, not just current call vs current pot, and in no-limit, figuring effective pot odds is very problematic.

The thing that sets utter spew apart from making aggressive plays is actually understanding what the hell you're doing, so being aggressive just for the sake of it is rarely a good idea 9except for standard aggression like c-betting etc obv)

There are so so many more factors that influence calling a raise preflop. You're equity vs your opponents range is one of the least relevant. What's more important is how your hand plays, how your opponent plays, knowing the advantages to flatting etc etc. These equity caculations can give you vague groundwork to work from preflop but they're best used post flop and more specifically in spots where you're close to or going to be all in in the near future or can accurately predict what is likely to happen in X or Y situation during the rest of the hand.