910 IP 4-handed 10nl

Okay so I have very little history on the main villain except that he's somewhere around 14/12 over 20 hands, so I have very little history with villain, but assume he's playing the usual tight game that places like FTR suggest and being aggressive postflop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP2) ($10)
CO ($8.80)
Button ($13.80)
SB ($10.79)
Villain (BB) ($10.21)
UTG ($10.41)
UTG+1 ($5.35)
MP1 ($12.11)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with ,
UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10, 3 folds, Villain checks

Flop: ($0.45) , , (4 players)
Villain checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.30, Villain raises to $1.10, 2 folds, Hero?...


At this point I'm thinking, okay we've got top pair and a 4-outer redraw to our straight. Since villain limped pf and then raises here I'm thinking sets, flush draws, straight draws, maybe awkward top pair or some weird top two pair and of course I think it's possible for him to have the nuts here since he's not going to raise 89 from the BB imo. Also I include a smidge of air since the table I've been playing at people seem to be c/r monkeys (although maybe I just sat down at a weird time). So he might be c/r with a pair of 7's, but given we have no history of villain I'll not include them.

As for sets I think top set is unlikely and he would have raised 10's pre, probably would have raised 7's, but I'll include for the sake of argument as well as 6's. Top pair hands I'm thinking A10, my initial reaction was the Q10 or K10 would have raised pre, but I could be FOS here so I'll include them.

So now villains range looks like... {88-55, ATs, KTs, QTs, T7s-T6s, 98s, 76s, 54s, 4c3c, ATo, KTo, QTo, T7o-T6o, 98o, 76o, 54o, 43o}

Stove tells us we have 45% equity in this pot, and the pot is saying we only need
0.8/(0.45+0.3+1.10+0.8) = 30% equity, not taking into account the implied odds when we hit our 4-outer or even make trip 10s (obviously less likely).

I feel like I've screwed up the range on villain hence posting the hand, sorry for the long windedness as always I just try to include as much of my thinking so spoon or spenda or someone can tell me I'm FOS and help me fix it.

Thanks guys

pretty happily fold

Stove tells us we have 45% equity in this pot, and the pot is saying we only need
0.8/(0.45+0.3+1.10+0.8) = 30% equity, not taking into account the implied odds when we hit our 4-outer or even make trip 10s (obviously less likely).

Be careful when you make these calcs: when you compare your pot odds and equity, it's all-in showdown equity (when there will be no further betting and you get to see the next two cards for that price). However here, you would call the $0.8 only to see the next card.

Also not too sure about your range. If you give him naked guthsots like 43o, surely you should give him many more flush draws. Plus if he is 14/12, he will do that mostly with draws to the nuts.

I'm one of the nittier in the BC, but I fold this. Not enough equity, and likely to get into sticky goo in a big pot on further streets.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Be careful when you make these calcs: when you compare your pot odds and equity, it's all-in showdown equity (when there will be no further betting and you get to see the next two cards for that price). However here, you would call the $0.8 only to see the next card.

I guess I either forgot or just didn't know this. So when we're figuring out pot odds and our equity to call, are we just going to try to count our outs and make a calculation from that? Saying in this case that we have 3 8's (since one completes the flush, bad for us) and counting like 2 tens, since they're somewhat muddled outs giving us 5 for the turn and an approximately 11% chance to hit on the turn?

Originally Posted by lombracremisi

I guess I either forgot or just didn't know this. So when we're figuring out pot odds and our equity to call, are we just going to try to count our outs and make a calculation from that? Saying in this case that we have 3 8's (since one completes the flush, bad for us) and counting like 2 tens, since they're somewhat muddled outs giving us 5 for the turn and an approximately 11% chance to hit on the turn?

Yes count your outs, estimate your chance of hitting on the next card, estimate how often he is going to bet the turn, estimate your implied odds when you hit... basically make an educated guess. Precisely analyzing all the scenarios over the next two streets is simply impossible.

EZ fold. I fold AT here and JJ -QQ and prob KK and AA

Originally Posted by !Luck

EZ fold. I fold AT here and JJ -QQ and prob KK and AA

9T is likely a better hand against his range than all of these

meh actually I'd peel one off

this is an easy fold for me. with 9T limped i'm looking for 2pair or a better draw if i'm going to get involved beyond your flop bet.

what are you thinking you'll do on the turn and possibly river if you call the checkraise?

if he bets the turn you'd be hard pressed to call, if he checks you're risking a decent sized bet to push him off his hand or you have to check and then face a bet on the river with either overcards, made flush or made straight potential.. your probably not looking to bet the river if he checks, its looks like a steal and the only things calling you have you beat and probably did have from the flop.

Maybe i'm being nitty in not looking for value here, but your limp/flop bet doesnt really leave you invested in this pot and there will be better spots to win money.

even if you make your hand, its not strong. too many of your outs make hands for him while further committing you and making a fold to his all in a harder decision.

Considering villian could be raising with FD here, you acutally have 3 true outs for straight unless he already has it. The real question is how much can you make from the villian if you make the straight? Not enough to peel imo. Bad spot. Pick a better one.