88 facing strange stats and stranger betting line

i've only played 26 hands against villain but he's running 19/0/5, so the limp call does not indicate set-hunting nearly as much as i usually infer (also 3bets 11%).

i'm never folding to min raise obviously, but is the turn a good bluffing opportunity?

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($4.75)
BB ($6.83)
UTG ($28.70)
MP ($12.85)
Hero (Button) ($18.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
BB calls $0.10, UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.60, 3 folds, MP calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) , , (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP raises to $1.60, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: ($4.70) (2 players)
MP bets $1.70, Hero???

really? If you can't let go of 8's on this board you shouldn't play them. Cbet was good, but fold to his raise. So what if it is min. He either has a hand and isn't folding, or has a queen and thinks you're FOS and isn't folding. As played, fold turn.

Also I don't follow on your logic about villain not having a set of 4's or 6's because he limp called. Add to that his PFR is 0, I think the only way you can rule out a set of 4's or 6's is if he didn't limp.

Agreed, standard fold here. I can easily see two pair acting here. Even if you are ahead here, don't pick this battle to fight, there are better opportunities you can take than this one.

Originally Posted by ArcadianRock

Agreed, standard fold here. I can easily see two pair acting here. Even if you are ahead here, don't pick this battle to fight, there are better opportunities you can take than this one.

yup this is a huge thing in poker PICK YOUR BATTLES!!! huggeeee

multitabling / running good helps this haha

a bunch of things i wasn't clear enough about:
1) i'm not reading much into his stats because it's over 26 hands. I was saying that usually when people limp call, an alarm goes off warning me of small PP's and SC's so watch for that range. with someone who appears to limp call often, this same alarm isn't going off. no shit sets are still in his range though, they just don't dominate.

2) i'm not at all married to my cards here. i know i have jack given the situation, but there are factors that would make one believe that this is a great bluffing opportunity.

3) i get sucked in by calls that are tiny compared to the pot with any equity (not ATC, just any equity). i know this is a often a bad play, and i'm working on it, but i'm not certain this is one of those. i know it's just over 26 hands but he's been sleeping pre flop and waking up aggro post flop, so this much of a show of strength. i expect to be checked to after making this call 50% of the time, and my implied odds of hitting my set (one in twelvish, and effective stack is better than a hundred bb) seem to make up for the times that he does actually have it + times he has the balls to double barrel.

i'm not getting defensive, especially about calling on the flop because i'm still not sure it's the right play (just giving my thought process). but i already know that i'm likely behind here and want to focus on whether this A on the turn + his week bet makes for a +EV bluff opportunity

he probably has a queen and he's not folding it
the flop call is not terrible, but just fold the turn
the times he's going to fold to a raise are like once in a blue moon
he'll call a raise, the river will be a king and he'll call the river with Q2o

raising turn folds very little of his range. u may be barreling here if action to you was c/c - check, the way this hand went down he´s showing strength while you can´t credibly rep a lot.

thanks. that's a helpful point that just because a raise here puts him in a position where I would fold doesn't mean that HE'S going to fold what is probably the likes of a Q2o as you say.

OK...so first of all: theres something wrong with the HH and potsizes, right?

2nd: I wouldnt bet that flop, a check behind is way better here IMO.

3rd: what everyone else said...just fold turn

1. 18/0 = weak tight. not very strange
2. easy fold

WAT....You didn't hit your set and got raised.....Seems easy my friend!

Flop fold is standard against many opponents. If he's doing this shit a lot, take it back away from him on the turn by raising to $5 and making him think about playing this hand for his stack.