5nl FR - TPTK in 3Bet Pot On Turn

Villain is 15/4 with 22 ATS over 75 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($5)
BB ($2.39)
UTG ($2.07)
UTG+1 ($4.47)
MP1 ($13.25)
MP2 ($6.48)
CO ($14.06)
Button ($4.69)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.25) K, 3, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, MP2 calls $0.85

Turn: ($2.95) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2.20, Hero ...

Put villain on goddamn range! :P

Why check the turn?

i'd c/f that turn...

i cant see any worse calling and for sure cant see any worst betting... my guess he is on a slowplayed KK preflop and flop or a floated QQ... sometimes i would expect even a 33/66 , but kind of rare in a 15/4 opening range in MP2. him betting AK here would be terrible for him and i dont think he is that dumb. even floating QQ here seems silly to me, but... happends sometimes.
anyway, since there is nothing worst from getting value i am for c/f.

c/f turn as well. You're crushed by KK,66,33,AKs,AKo and even worse if he does it with KQ.

I think i would probably barrel the turn if I was playing this hand live. Not sure if that is correct though and I see the merits of checking.

As playing I think this is a c/c. I could see him betting his entire range on the turn just because it looks like you're giving up a ton. And, I think his range could include things like AQ, JJ-99. I just don't think we have a good enough read to fold this hand now.

Originally Posted by kfaess

As playing I think this is a c/c. I could see him betting his entire range on the turn just because it looks like you're giving up a ton. And, I think his range could include things like AQ, JJ-99. I just don't think we have a good enough read to fold this hand now.

I thought the opposite -- we don't have a good enough read to call this now. I'd want reads before I assume that villain is going to call with AQ on the flop, or bet this turn with a hand like 99-JJ or AQ.

c/f seems fine to me without reads.

what makes you think a 15/4 is calling a 3bet , even from the blinds, with AQ?

i think w/o reads that is out of question. even so, if he calls AQ 3bet pre, the only one floating this flop is AQdd and that still is one combo.

also, betting here turn w/ AQ,AK or any other pair except KK/QQ/33/66 is really dumb ... my opinion.

w/o other reads on villain except that he is 15/4 , 22 ATS over 75 hands i dont see any reason to do anything but c/f.

even if he is a donk and floated flop w/ all of his range, if we bet wtf is gonna call here again that we beat and get value from? or if we check what worse will bet? both answers, the % that we get called when we bet and we get a bet when we check from weaker hands is a lot smaller then the % we need to make a +EV bet or call on turn, so long run a c/f is far more profitable.

but maybe i am to nitty, i even folded AA here a lot of times vs readlless villains.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

what makes you think a 15/4 is calling a 3bet , even from the blinds, with AQ?

In my experience, people who play those kind of stats don't like folding to 3bets because they're happy with their hand and not good enough to realize their image is such that you're going to put them on a strong range when they raise.

Originally Posted by d0zer

In my experience, people who play those kind of stats don't like folding to 3bets because they're happy with their hand and not good enough to realize their image is such that you're going to put them on a strong range when they raise.

may be right, you have damn more experience then i do, but you think he'd float flop w/ other AQ then just AQdd? also , what else do you think he floats flop and bets turn when we check dozer?

Originally Posted by Razvan729

may be right, you have damn more experience then i do, but you think he'd float flop w/ other AQ then just AQdd? also , what else do you think he floats flop and bets turn when we check dozer?

Yeah it's unlikely he calls flop with any other AQ than the dd variety. I still think I'd rather b/f turn, but if we check the turn I think we have to fold to a bet as I'm not even that confident that a player like this would semibluff with enough frequency or value bet worse, or even have many diamond draws in his range to begin with.

I think people are looking into villain's stats too much here. 75 hands isn't enough for a 15/4 to have even close to converged. I'd like to suggest that his preflop stat range could be as wide as 20/10 to 10/2 and everything inbetween. The fact that he's got an ATS in that at all points to his PFR converging to something higher than 4. I'm not saying to throw out the stats entirely, but we have to treat them as a weak read and not just throw 4% in pokerstove and then be shocked when he shows up with something outside that range.

I'd check flop some %. Checking all turns w/ this is also a way to get 2 streets v a lot of his range. Get more value from bluffs when we check flop though(if he bluffs lidogz) and some villains are just gonna turn their hand face up w/ sizing etc.

b/f turn

as played I fold turn.

~ pot size bet from villian looks super strong and I don't like big pots with TPTK hands with QQ, KQ, 66,33 in villians range.

What does he flat a 3bet with here? More than likely hero has been 3betting the piss outta him cause he's a loose maniac and he's decide to play back at hero by flatting the above range.

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

I thought the opposite -- we don't have a good enough read to call this now. I'd want reads before I assume that villain is going to call with AQ on the flop, or bet this turn with a hand like 99-JJ or AQ.

c/f seems fine to me without reads.

If he doesn't have 99 then he probably doesn't have 66,33. Therefore, we're losing to 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of QQ, and 6 combos of KQ (2 combos if its just KQs). However, at these stakes I think its much much more likely this guy calls too many 3bets PF than calling the correct amount or calling not enough. He could have all kinds of shit on the turn and that's why I don't like folding. Clearly the Q is a terrible card for us.

i'm C/Fing here because the Q kills most of our action against the part of his range we want to bet against, and i can't see him having very many floats/bluffs in his range when he bets the turn. if he checks back we can probably value bet the river.