5NL-FR QQ UTG+1

Villain is 12/0/1.0 over 20 hands, 67% fold to cbet (3 hands).
Second caller is a fish 52/0.

Villain's range pre I'd say 22-JJ, AQ+

I think pre and flop are standard. Note that in previous hands my bet size on the flop was more 3/4 pot, so if villain paid attention, the pot size bet here screams that I am trying to protect an overpair.

Being tight and passive, I can only see him call my flop bet with 33-44, 99-JJ, AsQs, AsKs, against which I only have 38% equity after the Jh shows up on the turn.

I still hate checking the turn though, because it represents that I have AK or AQ and I missed, and I just shut down after my cbet, so it's open door for my target to start shooting back with drawing hands or a pair that I beat.

As played, folding the turn seems correct?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP2 ($5.19)
CO ($1.14)
Button ($5.43)
SB ($4.95)
BB ($11.27)
UTG ($1.73)
Hero (UTG+1) ($6.53)
MP1 ($5.62)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $0.20, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.67) 4, 9, 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.67, MP2 calls $0.67, 1 fold

Turn: ($2.01) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.10, Hero folds

Total pot: $2.01 | Rake: $0.13

wtf is this

b/f turn 1.35

Originally Posted by daviddem

Villain's range pre I'd say 22-JJ, AQ+

so you're putting him on exactly a set? What about AsQs, or AQ that called your cbet cuz he thinks you cbet too much ?

Ridiculous check you're missing so much value, A9, 9T, TJs, QsTs etc. Ridiculous fold, you just probably laid down the best hand.

You have him beat often here, and certainly not nearly enough information yet to fold. For all you know he has AK or AQ and thinks he's good vs your cbet range. This is a great example of misusing hud stats. Just turn it off if you're going to take 20 hands as the absolute truth.

lol nitring

holy hell what happened here

what
the
fuck
b/f jesus christ batman

i can't stress how much i agree with bet/folding this turn, and not giving so much weight to 20 hand samples.

i'll elaborate a bit on why i think you're best to bet/fold this turn. i'm not saying these are legit reasons etc etc i'm a fish yadda yadda

- you have an overpair on a wet(ish) board where your opponent has few nut hands in his range (9 combos, 12 i guess with JJ still being in his range on the turn), and many draws (probably all suited broadways, more Axs, and 65s etc)
- you get value from the draws, A9,TT etc while rarely being bluffed or semi-bluffed when you lead flop AND turn (and can safely fold after you bet, if raised, based on this assumption)
- you WON'T get near as much value from the above range on the river as you will on the turn, unless it improved (ie flush got there), plus there is the argument of hand protection
- you could quite often be getting bluffed or semi-bluffed when you check because this board doesn't appear to hit your range at all and your cbet flop/check turn line seems to confirm this (imo this becomes even worse if you intend to fold after checking)
- microstakes play is typically pretty passive etc etc, tailoring itself to valuebetting strong hands, such as overpairs, and assuming you're rarely being bluffed or semi-bluffed when you take strong lines.

if you never have, and you're interested, i'd search a thread called something like "i've found the biggest leak amongst 0.5/1 and 1/2 grinders" by ISF which basically sanctifies the bet/fold, and for good reason imo.

OK, I agree, this turn was very badly played and the range I put him on was likely way too narrow. Guy was 12/0 at the time of the hand but later evolved to something like 16/4.

I'll re-read the thread you suggested, I think I saw it before.

edit: it's here. Good read.