5NL FR - JTo OTB 3-way, turned nut straight on 3-flush board

[daviddem]

CO has just sat (posted)
BB is 19 / 12.5 / 1.2AF / 10%3b over 50

BB betting range on the turn is below (basically sets, two pairs, top pair + gutshot, and a bunch of flushes). I included slowplayed big hands that he would normally have 3b pre and may have intended to c/r on the flop, so this range may be somewhat optimistic.
QQ+,66,AcKc,AcQc,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5 c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,QcJc,QcT c,Qc9c,JTs,Jc9c,Tc9c,Tc8c,9c8c,9c7c,8c7c,8c6c,ATo+ ,KQo,JTo
CO calling range would be the weaker part of the above range (he would probably raise the stronger part)

My equity heads up against one of these ranges is 75% and still 57% vs both.

OK to raise this turn? Sizing is a PSR and leaves only a 40% PSB for the river. I'd think 2/3 PSR ($2) would have been better here? Maybe even less?

River standard check behind after he calls the turn raise and the board pairs? Can't think of anything he calls that turn raise with, that doesn't crush me now.

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($5)
UTG+1 ($5.97)
MP1 ($3.55)
MP2 ($12.71)
CO ($3.50)
Hero ($5.61)
SB ($4.53)
BB ($5.17)

Pre-Flop: ($0.12, 8 players) Hero is BTN
[CO posts $0.05]
4 folds, CO checks, Hero raises to $0.25, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.77, 3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.77, 3 players)
BB bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.70, BB calls $2.20, CO folds

River: ($6.67, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

[spoonitnow]

There's $2.22 left on the river. One-third pot.

You think you're behind his calling range? How?

[daviddem]

I thought I was behind when he flatted the turn and the K came on the river.

All his sets are now boats or quads, all his flushes are still flushes, AK is also a boat.

You could argue that AK, QQ and KK 3b pre but I see regularly people who flat button steals with these to try and make the most of it instead of folding 80% of the button's range by 3b.

So what's left that I beat on the river? KQ, AQ, if these even call the turn, JT which I split with.

It's true his river check is confusing, but maybe he is scared of boats with his flush or he slow plays a boat and expects me to shove following my big turn raise.

As Daven said in irc, I should probably have shoved the turn and be done with it. Also raise less pre on the button with only a poster.

[spoonitnow]

Board: 6h Kc Ac Qc Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 90.000% 90.00% 00.00% 54 0.00 { QQ+, 66, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Qc5c, Qc4c, Qc3c, Qc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 10.000% 10.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { JsTc }

clear check here guys

[daviddem]

Board: 6h Kc Ac Qc Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 90.000% 90.00% 00.00% 54 0.00 { QQ+, 66, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Qc5c, Qc4c, Qc3c, Qc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 10.000% 10.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { JsTc }

clear check here guys

Glad to see you like my ranging...

OK then if my range sucks so bad, gimme a sensible range that I beat on the river, please without assuming that he is retarded enough to call the turn with just a pair.

[spoonitnow]

Oh so AsJc isn't in his range now but KK is?

[cleanup.that]

Against this player I think you want to go for 2 bets and not 3. Meaning, if you raise the turn bet and he calls, theres your 2 bets and you can just check back the river.

You can also just call turn/call river OR call turn/ bet river when checked to. Both of these lines will get you 2 bets.

[spoonitnow]

Against this player I think you want to go for 2 bets and not 3. Meaning, if you raise the turn bet and he calls, theres your 2 bets and you can just check back the river.

You can also just call turn/call river OR call turn/ bet river when checked to. Both of these lines will get you 2 bets.

Sick ranges brah

[daviddem]

Oh so AsJc isn't in his range now but KK is?

[x] I forgot the ONE AsJc combo (not even sure he stacks off with it on the river though)
[x] AsJc? sick range brah
[ ] villain peels turn with one naked pair or pair + gutshot without FD
[x] villains often slow play AA,KK,QQ,AK preflop in the blinds facing a button steal and may check the flop intending to c/r (except w/ QQ obv.)

So I would call a shove here marginal. FWIW opinions on irc seemed 50/50. I'll give you that it's a shove if you exclude all premiums from his range on the basis that he 3b them 100% preflop. If not, it looks a bit thin to me.

I am also a bit at odds of what to do on the turn. Shoving seems like a really large overbet, raising without committing myself seems to be giving good odds to drawing hands...

[Hoopy]

Big blinds range is semi-capped when he bet/calls the turn, flushes and sets will just jam over and I don't think we can give this guy QQ+ much without better reads. So mostly he's getting to the river with pair+club hands none of which will fold to a 1/3 pot bet.

I also think shoving the turn is a fine play.

[spoonitnow]

[x] I forgot the ONE AsJc combo (not even sure he stacks off with it on the river though)
[x] AsJc? sick range brah
[ ] villain peels turn with one naked pair or pair + gutshot without FD
[x] villains often slow play AA,KK,QQ,AK preflop in the blinds facing a button steal and may check the flop intending to c/r (except w/ QQ obv.)

So I would call a shove here marginal. FWIW opinions on irc seemed 50/50. I'll give you that it's a shove if you exclude all premiums from his range on the basis that he 3b them 100% preflop. If not, it looks a bit thin to me.

I am also a bit at odds of what to do on the turn. Shoving seems like a really large overbet, raising without committing myself seems to be giving good odds to drawing hands...

You missed AhJc and AdJc as well, and Villain will sometimes, but not often, call the turn with one pair + gutshot. The part that really bugs me here is that you have no read to explain why you think he's going to flat QQ+, AK and you're just assuming he will because you've seen someone else do it before.

[daviddem]

You missed AhJc and AdJc as well, and Villain will sometimes, but not often, call the turn with one pair + gutshot. The part that really bugs me here is that you have no read to explain why you think he's going to flat QQ+, AK and you're just assuming he will because you've seen someone else do it before.

Fair enough, maybe I am being result oriented here and we should discount combos of QQ+,AK (but then probably some AQ as well?). I would discount combos, but not exclude them altogether though. When I have a bit of time I will do another stove.

On another note, do you think it is reasonable to slow play your big hands preflop facing a button steal (say button has a ATS of 40)? I mean if he is going to fold 80% of his range to a 3b, are we not making more money by letting him do mistakes post flop rather than mostly forcing him to play correctly preflop? This is assuming that button does not continue to 3b too often.

[The Norg]

On another note, do you think it is reasonable to slow play your big hands preflop facing a button steal (say button has a ATS of 40)? I mean if he is going to fold 80% of his range to a 3b, are we not making more money by letting him do mistakes post flop rather than mostly forcing him to play correctly preflop? This is assuming that button does not continue to 3b too often.

If he's folding 80% of his raising range to a 3b, shouldn't you be looking to 3b more rather than flat your big hands giving him the opportunity to hit innocuous looking flops with his wide range?

[daviddem]

If he's folding 80% of his raising range to a 3b, shouldn't you be looking to 3b more rather than flat your big hands giving him the opportunity to hit innocuous looking flops with his wide range?

Is it not +EV to do both? (until he adjusts at least)

[The Norg]

Is it not +EV to do both? (until he adjusts at least)

I'm not really sure it is, because when you flat the big hands OOP, you're presumably donking the flop with no definition of our villain's hand, but we've given him 3 cards for free to hit, and if he calls our donk bet we still really none the wiser as to whether he's got a hand or is floating us.

So we're at the turn, still pretty much in the dark on which part of his range we're facing, we check the turn that bricked, and bang, he puts in a PSB....

I would use the stop go to mix up how I deal with his stealing range, but your 3b range should still include your big hands as well as some light / bluffy hands for balance. We become too predictable otherwise.

[rpm]

On another note, do you think it is reasonable to slow play your big hands preflop facing a button steal (say button has a ATS of 40)? I mean if he is going to fold 80% of his range to a 3b, are we not making more money by letting him do mistakes post flop rather than mostly forcing him to play correctly preflop?.

i think we definitely need to keep 3betting our nut range. imo the correct adjustment would be to 3bet a weaker range - not by removing nut hands but by adding more weaker ones to exploit their tendency to fold to 3bets so much.

[philly and the phanatics]

do both, 3bet your nut hands sometimes so he still thinks they are in your 3b range, and then flat them sometimes too because yes if they are folding 90% of their range to a 3bet you are wasting EV's with a hand like KK/AA....but you still have to do it sometimes because he will realize that you are just 3betting your garbage and not 3betting your nut hands

[AFchung]

this is 5NL, and hes paying you off with a naked ace so often here.

[Miffed22001]

nh - wheres the river shove? Oh wait everyone said that already!

[Shotglass]

do both, 3bet your nut hands sometimes so he still thinks they are in your 3b range, and then flat them sometimes too because yes if they are folding 90% of their range to a 3bet you are wasting EV's with a hand like KK/AA....but you still have to do it sometimes because he will realize that you are just 3betting your garbage and not 3betting your nut hands

Good advice but your average 5NL player won't be paying enough attention to realize that your 3b range includes a bunch of garbage.

Oh, and...shove the river.