5NL FR flopped set vs half stack - extraction

Opp is 34 / 8 / 7AF / 50HEMAggFreq over 38 hands, and half-stacked at this point in the game.

Flop is relatively wet and hits his range, but his small cbet does not rep much strength. I think he has a lot of second pair hands here, like maybe JJ-KK or maybe some draw like QJs. I think he would cbet more if he had an A. I raise to get more money in the pot and charge draws, but I would say there is a good chance that he folds? Would just calling be OK here? Given his half stack two more streets would be enough to get the money in?

Blank turn he checks and I bet again, but maybe I should have sized it smaller, like half pot (his stack is $1.79 at this point)

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG+1 ($2.39)
MP1 ($2.91)
MP2 ($5.79)
Hero (MP3) ($5.60)
CO ($6.68)
Button ($4.65)
SB ($5)
BB ($6.16)
UTG ($4.59)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9, 9
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.15, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.15, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 9, A, 10 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, UTG+1 calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.27) 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.90

bets are ok imo, we don't want to give him a cheap river so making him pay for his outs is ok (in the case he has a draw ofc) also, you want him to pay with any ace or ten, and seems like he isn't going to raise, so if he wants to go to the showdown, make him pay for it

if anything, bet a little bigger when you have it

raise flop bigger and shove turn

Originally Posted by kfaess

raise flop bigger and shove turn

I like this, because if he has a draw and he get to the river without hitting he'll be able to c/f easily, whereas he'll happily put his money in before that. With a 50bb stack he likely wont be able to escape from Ax anyway.

Originally Posted by Viscaro

I like this, because if he has a draw .

what draw?

Pre is good/standard. Your plan on this flop is to play for stacks, figure out how you want to do this. Raise size is good because he's short and you don't need to bet bigger + there are no scare cards for either of you. Turn he has $1.80 behind and pot is $1.27, i like bet $0.50 and then he'll have $1.30 behind on river pot of $2.30 and be pot-stuck.

Raise flop bigger/shove turn is ok too, but helps him find the fold button with the AJ in his range.

Originally Posted by daven

what draw?

QJ, J8, 78
I realise these are unlikely because his preflop range likely only includes QJs. However because it is a possibility, we should aim to get stacks in on turn because otherwise he can play river perfectly (ship when he hits, fold otherwise).
I really doubt he's capable of laying down top pair for 50bbs so it shouldn't affect how much we win in that case.
The only reason I can see for raising this small is to give him extra percieved fold equity to make it more likely he shoves over our bet. However I don't the % chance of him doing that is significantly higher than if we just put in a pot sized raise.

Originally Posted by Viscaro

QJ, J8, 78
I realise these are unlikely because his preflop range likely only includes QJs. However because it is a possibility, we should aim to get stacks in on turn because otherwise he can play river perfectly (ship when he hits, fold otherwise).
I really doubt he's capable of laying down top pair for 50bbs so it shouldn't affect how much we win in that case.
The only reason I can see for raising this small is to give him extra percieved fold equity to make it more likely he shoves over our bet. However I don't the % chance of him doing that is significantly higher than if we just put in a pot sized raise.

I raise "small" (2/3rd PSB) because I am trying to get called by the most likely part of his range at this point, which I think is KK-JJ. I think he would cbet bigger if he had an A although I can't completely exclude aces from his range at this stage. As for J8 and 78, come on, he has a PFR of 8 and is UTG+1, these are not in his range. At best he has QJs.

As played, I agree with Daven to bet the turn smaller to commit it him while making a call more tempting (maybe not as small as $0.5 because of some flush draws he might have picked up, but surely smaller than $0.9).

call the flop. Iunno why anyone would want to raise this flop bet for value

oh and if you're raising to charge draws on THIS flop. You have no hope.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

call the flop. Iunno why anyone would want to raise this flop bet for value

OK. What's the plan on blank turns? Obviously bet if checked to but call a small bet again or raise?

Umm he passive and half stacked. If he has any peice of it he is calling a decent size raise not your 3 x vs his tiny don't bet. Then the stacks would be different on turn and you can go from there.