5NL FR - AA in position vs super nit

Opp is 6 / 4 / 1.4(3b) / 3.3AF over 257 hands

So this is actually one of these cases where plugging the stats in Pokerstove to get ranges pretty much works. Looks like he would 3b QQ+, and would flat AK,88-JJ.

Now I am a bit at odds of what to do when he donks the flop. I can't picture him calling a raise with JJ or TT, so I thought calling would be the better option. On the turn I have to make a commitment decision, and again it seems to me that he would not hammer this hard with JJ or TT. Can't be sure of course, he may put me on a flush draw. The only hand that really makes sense is 99 though.

Fold? Would it have made any sense to put in a small raise on the flop? Guess there is also MP2 to take into account, so it might be justified?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($5)
Button ($5)
SB ($2)
BB ($6.16)
UTG ($5.53)
UTG+1 ($17.65)
Hero (MP1) ($5)
MP2 ($12.86)
MP3 ($5.32)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 4 folds, BB calls $0.20, UTG+1 calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.02) 9, 5, 4 (4 players)
BB bets $0.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.70, 1 fold

Turn: ($2.42) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $2.15

Hero?

i just ship the turn. i'm not stoked, but i think you'll see TT/JJ/perhaps even QQ often enough here. you would be a better judge than i would though. it all boils down to the frequency with which you think he would take this line with TT-QQ.

I think raising the flop is a good idea, even with MP2 behind you. Why would he donk bet into you like that? I'm leaning to QQ+ and he's afraid of a flush draw like you said. He probably calls your raise with this, but re-raises the flop with 99, 55, 44, or 54s. I think you have an easier decision at that point though.

Just a thought.

May well be correct that the donk bet would be more indicative of an overpair than a set... Besides, there are only 3 combos of sets in his range (he doesn't play 44 and 55, surely not OOP), so he doesn't have to be doing that with JJ or TT very often at all for it to be a shove).

I figure he expected to be raised on the flop by an overpair, so when I just called he put me on on overcards or a FD I guess.

On the spot, I folded the turn because when I was playing the hand I thought he would play the turn carefully with a JJ or TT and keep firing with a set. In retrospect, it was probably a mistake.

fwiw i would def include 44 /55 in his range...but im still not folding here on the turn


edit- just saw he was a 6/4 idk if he has those in his range like you said....my bad

fold and it's not remotely close

Originally Posted by Donachello

fold and it's not remotely close

+1
Respect the stats. 6/4 over 260 hands. This guy doesn't bluff.

raising flop doesn't really make any sense at all

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

+1
Respect the stats. 6/4 over 260 hands. This guy doesn't bluff.

he doesn't think he's bluffing with TT or JJ

itt, a bunch of bonks are managing to get themselves exploited by a 6/friggin 4

u r going to have to say which camp is being exploited because so far half of the posters are for shipping and the other half for folding.

I looked back in the database, I have no further reads because he went to showdown only twice over this sample, and it was when he was on the BB in unraised pots.

Well which do you think is gonna allow a 6/4 to exploit you:

a) folding to worse hands in double barrel donks into three way pots

b) paying off sets

b)

What can Villain have here at "ANY GIVEN TIME"? 6.8% is probably 88+ AQs+AQ+KQ KQs

Take out 3bet range. QQ+ some AK (that we still crush even if he didn't 3 bet like QQ)

What remaining hands take this line? AdQd AdKd KdQd JJ TT 99. That's 18 Combos, and we lose to only 3. We are ahead 83% of the time on the turn.

"But Smith, I don't think his range is that wide taking this line." Ok then let's just concentrate on only two over pairs JJ TT and the 99. That's 15 combos, so we are still way ahead. Now let's say we think he would barrell half the time, and chk call half the time on the turn. Effectively this gives him only TT and 99. In this scenario it's 9 combos. WE ARE STILL AHEAD 66% OF THE TIME!!

"But Smith, I really think he has a set here even 88" Ok let's give him exactly only one overpair, and both sets. That's 12 combos, (6 sets, 6 TT) and we are still a COIN FLIP! That has to be the worst case scenario.

Now given that, WHO WANTS TO FOLD THE TURN NOW?

you're more willing to concede 88 than 55/44? lol. he's likely to be in a 4-way pot when he flats pre 100bbs+ deep against everyone.

as for post, i can't back up my thinking on flop beyond just based on what i've seen (i'm a redline-addled crack head, so i see a shittonne of showdowns), but really usually a lead into a 4-way pot from a super nit seems to be either the nuts or the nut draw. it's certainly not NEVER an overpair though.

rest assured that a 6/4 is gonna pot control an overpair here A TON. it's not even that bad of a lolnitpotcontrolzfacepalm check either, seeing as how we can have like T9s and maybe A9o that might call here that he beats (and those would be truly terrible calls, flop might even be a fold with those hand, seeing as how it's a flop donk into 3 players, 2 of which are station fish). timing is important here though. if he tanked before betting, then it'd be a lot more likely that he bet TT/JJ/QQ

so basically we're looking at AQdd/AJdd (maybe AKdd), 99/55/44 and once in a blue moon we'll see TT-QQ which played flop unexpectedly and made a spewy thin vbet on the turn (lol 6/4's making spewy thin vbets). and there's a river yet to come and we're pretty much NOT gonna play perfectly on the river (ok, so he's never betting worse on a diamond river, but on non-diamond rivers, whether we fold or call to a river shove, we're making a mistake some %age of the time)

Super NIT doesn't play 44,55 especially with UTG yet to act preflop. IMO. Over 257 hands 44,55 just do not fit in his range. He is not thinking about conditions to set mine. You don't get any tighter then this range, and there isn't much room to maneuver outside of the top % of hands.

You think Villain is more likely to semi-bluff with FL draw on turn then value/protect with over pairs?

Hand Combos do not justify a fold here IMO. I will never ever fold here unless I had seen him passively play over pairs before.

You go to showdown a lot, and think folding AA here is easy?

Originally Posted by surviva316

99/55/44 and once in a blue moon we'll see TT-QQ which played flop unexpectedly and made a spewy thin vbet on the turn (lol 6/4's making spewy thin vbets)

i was thinking he would bet them because "omg gotta protect my overpair", but you're probably right.

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

raising flop doesn't really make any sense at all

This.