5nl - 99 OTB 3-way pot

Making my first steps at 5nl on FTP, so I'd appreciate some input.

The two opps in the hand were the looser at the table. I was 10/8/inf over 26 hands.
MP2 is 17/17/inf over 26 hands but this is coming mainly from his steals OTB and in the SB (100% steals)
SB is 32/16/3 over 26 hands

Preflop I'd put MP2 on 22+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo and SB on pretty much his entire VPIP range minus JJ+,AK

SB checks on the flop and I can't picture him checking a made hand OOP on this wet board. The c-bet sizing of MP2 reeks of weakness, not the kind of bet one makes with a TPTK or set kind of hand on this board so I have him on 22-99, overcards, or maybe second pair.

Thoughts about the ranges? What's your play?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG ($6.14)
UTG+1 ($5.34)
MP1 ($5.14)
MP2 ($2.51)
MP3 ($6.87)
CO ($6.57)
Hero (Button) ($5)
SB ($17.70)
BB ($2)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.20, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.65) J, 5, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 bets $0.20

Hero??

fold

snap fold

Let me put it another way: if the ranges I put them on are correct, at best, they have draws. Is that still a fold, and if yes, why?

If the ranges are not correct, what do you think they do that with?

Against the range that you have for Villain on the flop you only have 36.43% equity.

You called to set mine. You missed. Fold.

Why create a scenario where you might be ahead in order to justify putting more money into the pot? It's 5nl. KISS. In general, stay out of uncertain situations and let the opponents beat themselves.

Against the range that you have for Villain on the flop you only have 36.43% equity.

Not at all. I have MP2's range on the flop after his tiny c-bet as: 99-22,AQs+,ATs,KQs,AQo+,KQo (which is his preflop range minus the hands that make an overpair, top pair or a set, because I argue that he doesn't gay bet these hands on this board). Against this range I have 68.7% equity. Even if there are more second pair hands in the range like KT and QT, which I doubt he raises preflop with, I am still a favorite. Even if I add stupidly slowplayed sets to his range, I am still a favorite. I'd say SB's continuing range is similar to MP2's after his c-bet, but roughly 3/4 of his flop checking range folds.

You called to set mine. You missed. Fold.

It's true I called to set mine, I missed and I'd normally fold. I certainly would fold to a normal sized C-bet but here I saw a cheap opportunity to win a small pot, may well be it was wrong.

Why create a scenario where you might be ahead in order to justify putting more money into the pot? It's 5nl. KISS. In general, stay out of uncertain situations and let the opponents beat themselves.

Can you please give sensible street by street ranges that I am not ahead of, or explain why the ranges I gave are unrealistic, or if the ranges are OK, why I should always fold? You may be right that I should play ABC at 5nl, which is what I was doing at 2nl. But so far I found the 5nl FR games on Full Tilt incredibly nitty/weak tight compared to 2nl. I find it also next to impossible to get seats at the looser tables, they all have super long waiting lists, unlike 2nl where it's really easy to get a good seat. Does tight ABC, rigorous "fit or fold" really work at 5NL? Is pure set mining really profitable with all these nits? If it's OK to steal the blinds in position, then is it really always wrong to steal a flop or float here and there?

So as you may have guessed, I didn't fold. Let's imagine that you foolishly decide that it's worth continuing. Would you prefer to raise or call and what's the plan?

I don't think this is a snap fold. But you have to be aware that by calling here yournpotentially setting yourself for difficult spots. If Any heart,8 or q comes and he bets 1/4 quarter u have to call again, if he checks and the river brings a low heart and he bets small like 1/6 of pots you nearly become committed. I call and make a decision on the turn, which will never be easy.


Folding 100% of the time here is probably not a leak, and if it is it's a very small considering you are far more likely to make huge mistakes later on.

With two overcards and two opps I'm folding this. Maybe with one opp I'd raise his tiny c-bet sometimes. I think usually I'm still folding though unless I've seen him make stupid small bets and then fold them.

Originally Posted by ManicLombax

Maybe with one opp I'd raise his tiny c-bet sometimes.

plz give some reasoning

plz give some reasoning

Raise for value against all the draws and to a lesser extent as a bluff against all the second pairs in his range.

Now as !Luck said above, this will become very hard to play if called, so I wouldn't mind if he folds to the raise. If called, I try to check down the hand or see a (really cheap) showdown and I fold to any show of strength.

Raising sucks. You really want to keep the pot small if you're trying to get to showdown. A crappy pair with 2 over cards on the board and other possible overpairs is not gonna make you alot of money and prolly cost you alot in the long run.

Calling sucks because he gave himself a ton of equity to make his draws and even if you hit your set he gets there with some of them.

If it was HU vs MP2 you might get away with shoving based on his stack size, but with the SB still there it's a fold. There's no reason here to risk stacking of with 99.

If either the board was a lot drier or SB wasn't in the hand, I would like a raise, and follow up if you hit one of your backdoor outs or a set, and reevaluate otherwise.

I just skimmed over the comments - someone said that you're setmining and you missed. If you call an open raise from a fairly tagg mp opener, you CANNOT setmine. He will not stack off nearly enough to make this profitable, because his range is far too weak. Plus you would hardly get odds to setmine even if his range was QQ+ AKs.

Originally Posted by oskar

Plus you would hardly get odds to setmine even if his range was QQ+ AKs.

I think I followed it all up till here. Why not?

I just skimmed over the comments - someone said that you're setmining and you missed. If you call an open raise from a fairly tagg mp opener, you CANNOT setmine. He will not stack off nearly enough to make this profitable, because his range is far too weak. Plus you would hardly get odds to setmine even if his range was QQ+ AKs.

Are you saying that you fold (or reraise?) the 99 pre against MP2's raise? Not sure what you mean when you first say that he is tagg, then that his range is weak, then that even if his range was strong we don't have the odds to set mine. Do you mean that set mining is only profitable against loose opps?

Or are you talking about his stack size? In this case I agree that his stack is only 12x the call, so the odds for pure fit or fold set mining are not met (should be 15x to 20x if I remember correctly). But with 99 you also flop an overpair 20% of the time, and you can also possibly make an occasional play. Does that not warrant a call?

i haven't read anyone else's comments. so i might be saying the same thing for 14th time, but i think this is a fold. i agree his cbet size is shitty but it's 5nl, i wouldn't expect my opponents to understand good strategic betsizing very well. if you had a read on this guy that undersized OOP cbets are a typically weak range then i'd definitely start opening up and bluffing him (though on this board i'd prefer to use hands like XhXh, KQ, 89, AQ etc which have some equity against his calling range - your hand is basically dead to two outs every time you bluff this flop and are called)

without reads, i think the best plan is ABC poker at 5nl. i imagine that's what most other people are going to have said ^^ up there.

as regards what oskar said, if villain's range is AA alone, and he stacks off on 100% of flops, we need ~9:1 i think on our preflop call to breakeven setmining factoring in the rare times we get set over setted/redrawn on. i might be wrong about the 9:1 but it's in that ballpark. if his range is KK+ and he stacks off on all flops that he has an overpair, we're going to need slightly more than 9:1, because half of his range is KK, and some of the time we flop a set there will be an ace on the board, so he's not paying us off at as high a frequency. in this hand you called a 0.2 raise with roughly 12x that amount remaining i your opponents stack. his range is probably something like 22+,A9s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,QTs+,QJo+ etc etc. basically it's far too wide to call an open against profitably IF you're purely setmining. i think that's what oskar was getting at. i probably should have just let him explain it better himself now i think about it...

^^ no.. thank's for taking that one. That's it. I think there was just confusion about the terminology. Setmining means you're calling to make a set or else you give up. That's not a profitable play against a range that is wider than 3% with 100bb stacks. You can easily do the math on that yourself. - The common flop odds page is your friend.

OK, I hear you. So it would be a better play against a full stacked tagg who opens UTG? The question remains: what would you do pre with your 99 in the above hand (with his actual stack size, and also pretending that MP2 is full stacked)? Just fold it?

Originally Posted by daviddem

OK, I hear you. So it would be a better play against a full stacked tagg who opens UTG? The question remains: what would you do pre with your 99 in the above hand (with his actual stack size, and also pretending that MP2 he is full stacked)? Just fold it?

he is fine with calling he is just griping about the terminology because setmining means calling "just to hit a set and giving up if you dont" whereas here you have a medium strength hand that can sometimes be an overpair. Calling with it is fine...if there was only one opponent postflop id consider calling 1 street to his funky cbet but with the other person in the hand i think its an easy fold

Originally Posted by Donachello

You called to set mine. You missed. Fold.

Originally Posted by Arjonius

Why create a scenario where you might be ahead in order to justify putting more money into the pot? It's 5nl. KISS. In general, stay out of uncertain situations and let the opponents beat themselves.

These guys kinda summed it up don't ya think?