4NL(Shallow) - AJs in BB against UTG Raise

Villain is 22/14 over 150 hands. I saw him Open raise UTG and 4bet all in pre with KQs.

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (7 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($2.60)
MP1 ($1.33)
MP2 ($2.08)
CO ($2.91)
Button ($12.02)
SB ($1.44)
Hero (BB) ($3.31)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A
UTG bets $0.16, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.34) K, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.22, Hero??

I'd float and re-evaluate ott.

Good one to stove. If we assume that he stacks off with at least some sort of one pair hand (AA/AK) then its close and likely a raise.

On my HUD I have Pfr by position stats on the menu so would Check this. Where the 21/14 type is opening say only 7% UTG I'd call but if higher say 12% id raise with the intention of stacking off.

I can't get stacks in fast enough here, probably a mistake. We have around 42% vs QQ+,99,AQs+,A9s,KQs,AQo+, but he folds his AQ and maybe he doesn't like his AK when we raise, so it's close. Calling is probably better here but I'm an idiot with these kind of hands.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

I'd float and re-evaluate ott.

Not sure you're floating when you actually have equity. My understanding of the float is it's a cold call with little or no equity with the intention to bluff later. We have lots of equity here, so if we call it's for value.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Not sure you're floating when you actually have equity. My understanding of the float is it's a cold call with little or no equity with the intention to bluff later. We have lots of equity here, so if we call it's for value.

A value call? Right now we've got equity but an unmade hand. Would you have rather I said "peel one to protect our equity and re-evaluate"? IMO it's a. coin toss between a call and a raise...but either way were still betting a hand that's gonna leave us behind or guessing >%60 of the time...so..if you raise and he shoves, then what? Call and pray to the poker gods?

Need position-by-position PFR because preflop is a raise or fold against a tight UTG opening range.

As for flop, I'm kind of inclined to say that this type of player doesn't have much of a b/f for value range based on his stats and the KQs hand he got it all in with (the bottom of his value range is AK and WEEE TPTK ON A WET BOARD!). Fold to flop raise and, to a lesser extent, cbet %age would help here to decide how big his b/f range is.

If my suspicions that he's too cally/not value betting thin enough for us to c/r here profitably, I'm inclined to just call. I wouldn't do so before sketching exactly what our plan is when we call, which is tough because if he doesn't have a huge b/f for value range on the flop, then he certainly doesn't have much of one on a blank turn, which means we're getting ourselves into a spot where we're x/c'ing two streets without much of a plan for bluffing. Lol, IDK, I think this is an interesting spot.

Certainly c/r'ing is never really too dumb with this hand OOP (surely villain bets AQ or something some of the time, and he might triple with lesser flush draws, which sucks for us), and x/c'ing without a plan most certainly can be dumb, but I'd like to think there's a way we can turn a bigger profit by calling.

Turn barreling %age would be helpful here as well to see if we can ever win this hand at showdown unimproved.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

so..if you raise and he shoves, then what? Call and pray to the poker gods?

Depends if I have required pot odds, simple. No praying to the poker gods, just make the right decision based on maths.

surviva, I love your posts. You give a very good idea of how you think things through while planning your actions, you are slowly getting through to people so thanks.

Simply enough - 33% equity vs only sets.

Once you add 1 1 pair hand we are getting 36% equity and anything after that is 60/40 nearly always.

Also, if you stove our effective getting it all in range as sets, straights and the Gutter SFD villain is looking at a lot of 50/50 40/60 spots also.

I would actually say that if we raise obviously playing for stacks, villain is not going to be as happy as we think getting a lot in here (not that he'll know that)

With the implied threat for stacks and the serious way our equity falls off on the turn against the hands that we have lots of threat and equity against on the flop that will struggle to stack off eg AK i think its a raise

Also forgot to add i like a bet/raise(push at these stack sizes) line here way over a c/r as your range will be so difficult to judge (ie you could push a bare FD here and AK even KQ will barf horribly)

Getting all the money in is fine.

Agree with miffed that bet/jam works better with stack sizes, though tbh playing badly on the flop is difficult unless you go full retard and c/f.

c/r .72

shove turn. call ai if he jams flop

@Surviva Cake doesn't support the HUD. All I have at the time of play are the notes taken down by me. I had posted a similar hand earlier sometime where I had the open ended straight flush draw. The gist of the post was to get the stacks in with so much equity.

The villian in this hand had been too aggressive with hands that weren't the nuts.




Flop: ($0.34) K, Q, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.22, Hero raises to $0.74, UTG raises to $2.44 (All-In), Hero calls $1.48

Turn: ($4.78) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($4.78) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $4.78

Results:
Hero had J, A (one pair, Aces).
UTG had K, K (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: UTG won $4.88

I like lead/shove. His cbetting range on this flop is just going to be very strong and we're not sure if we have much fold equity against it. His flop check back range is going to have a lot of medium strength hands that we're not sure are going to fold on the turn/river.

If we lead the flop, we have some immediate fold equity and set up for barrels on a lot of run outs.