4NL Is this KK a fold?

$0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem
weaktight.com
5 Players

Villain is 24/17 3bet 0 over 130 hands


Stacks:
UTG ($4)
Hero ($4.63)
BTN ($7.43)
SB ($4.98)
BB ($3)

Pre-Flop: ($0.06, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, BTN calls $0.16, 2 folds

He called initially so I expect a wide range 22+, AJo+, Axs, some SCs

Flop: ($0.38, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.32, BTN raises to $0.88, Hero raises to $2.40, BTN raises to $3.92
My raise was intended to scare any Ax type hands....but it didn't happen.
At this point I reckon he has air or a set. Is this a fold?

I would take away monsters preflop from his range unless noted otherwise. I think the bigger question is why do you want to bluff? And also, if you have that read then it's a very very easy decision but I think has more than a set/air and cue spoon's link to analyzing an all-in.

Over 130 hands hopefully you have some more reads about his aggression postflop to see what kind of hands he's doing this with, i.e. how likely this is that he's spazzing with air. Regardless though in my experience I've seen a fair number of people who play any overpair like the nuts, and if you can put overpairs in his range then we're a favorite:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,660 games 0.001 secs 33,660,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 4c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.441% 54.04% 01.40% 18189 472.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 44.559% 43.16% 01.40% 14526 472.50 { 99+, 44-33 }

So yeah I probably get it in here unless we have better postflop reads that would make us lean one way or the other.

Originally Posted by ButtonMash

My raise was intended to scare any Ax type hands....but it didn't happen.
At this point I reckon he has air or a set. Is this a fold?

WAT.

Are you asking if you should call $1.52 into a $7.90 pot with KK on a raggy board?

We only need to win this pot like one in five times to make this call profitable. I can't be bothered to do the maths, just call.

@ ButtonMash what do you think his range is preflop? After you estimate this range what part of that range do you think raises you on this flop?

There was a typo in my original post which I didn't catch till after I read these responses. Villain's stats were actually 24/17, not 24/7. No 3bets and fairly agressive post flop.
My flop reraise was intended to give him a difficult choice if he had an Ax type hand that had connected with the board. My pf estimate of his range was 22+, AJo+, Axs, some SCs. When he raised again I was left with 33,44,99, AA (just maybe JJ, QQ) or a bluff. I have no reads to indicate that he will try to bluff here. He might also consider the possibility that I have a set. At this point I still have over $2. I see this as a <15% unless I include JJ,QQ. I'm still trying to get to grips with ranges, hence the reason for this sort of post.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,660 games 0.046 secs 731,739 games/sec

Board: 3d 4c 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.441% 54.04% 01.40% 18189 472.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 44.559% 43.16% 01.40% 14526 472.50 { 99+, 44-33 }


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We've got to put him on a range as narrow as 33-44, 99, KK+ before this becomes a fold. He could easily have tens here, overpairs are the nutz dammit, it's the micros. I guess it could be a draw, but I think we'd need some notes to make this assumption. So I'd put his range as set or overpair, and make an easy call. If it's beat, it's beat, nh to him.

wat