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4NL Is this allin write or rong?

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  1. #1
    Tasha's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
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    303
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    At the far end of the table
    If no one else will then I'll have a go.
    Of course, this situation is slightly different because it is Hero who goes all-in rather than being faced with the decision as to whether or not to call an all-in from someone else.

    First, what sort of range can we put our villains on?
    Since we haven't got any reads on them let's just take a standard strategy and go for JJ+ and AKs for the SB and add AQs, TT and AK for UTG+1. After all, we have no reason to assume that they are any more or less capable than we are even if the SB seems to be a bit short.

    So, over to our friend Pokerstove to see what sort of equity we might have.
    And the answer is:
    Hero has about 14%
    SB has about 48%.
    UTG+1 has about 37%

    Hero goes all-in for $3.48 and by the time everyone has finished calling the pot is $8.72.

    Then we have the following:
    EV = (.14)(8.72) - (..86)(3.48) = 1.22 - 2.99 = -$1.77

    So going all-in was -EV.

    Of course, I might be completely wrong as well.
    Last edited by Tasha; 08-29-2010 at 09:41 AM.

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