4bet bluffing @25nl?

Hey guys just wondering what your thoughts are on 4bet bluffing weak nitregs at 25nl. In my experience so far some regs are familiar with 3 bet bluffing. But when reacting to 4bets regs seem to either 5 bet with the nuts or fold. Is 25nl too low to start doing this? I've been meaning to try this for a few sessions but only just now found a nice spot for one.

Villain is 9/8 with a 0.7 AG factor and a 37.5 ATS (3/8) over 85 hands


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
9 Players


Stacks:
UTG NozhenkoSN ($10.94)
UTG+1 Taedy ($29.95)
MP1 DUNCS19 ($15.76)
MP2 i know flop ($34.58)
MP3 kevinho10 ($40.49)
CO 5TheBest5 ($26.83)
BTN Hero ($34.66)
SB Garchatore ($25.10)
BB TheGameHHH01 ($14.19)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) Hero is BTN
6 folds, Hero raises to $1, Garchatore raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7, **He thought for awhile ** Garchatore folds


please correct my math if I'm wrong
we risk losing 28bb (our $7 bet) to win 17bb (the pot before our bet 0.35 + 1 + 2.90 = $4.25) so he needs to fold ( 17/28 x 100 ) = 60.71% of the time for it to be break even? (before rake)


I feel his 3 betting range could be pretty much QQ+ Ak+ or maybe even TT+, AQ+ for value and 22-66, any sooted connectors and maybe Axs? as a bluff. I'm kinda just basing the bluffing range on what I might do it with.

When I 4bet I expect him to ship with AA,KK. Possibly with call with AK, QQ, KK (rarely but maybe) and fold out everything else.
I feel after he thought for awhile its more likely he had TT,JJ or AK, AQ.

I don't like my sizing either I got kinda excited about the spot and just mashed buttons lol maybe i should of made it more like 7.50 (needs to fold 56.66% of the time) or 7.75 (needs to fold 54.84% of the time)?

Thanks guys. Now its 230am and i need some zzzZZzzZzzZ

The sizing in this hand is not that bad. As for 4bet bluffing. Fuck the math for a minute. Ask yourself these questions.

Has he 3bet me yet?
Is there any history to lead me to believe he will bluff?
Just how nitty is he?
Is he one of those regs that 3bets with reckless abandon when you raise a lot in LP?

While this 3bet may have worked I have a hard time believing that you are going to be running into the bottom of a 9/8s 3betting range very often.

Also, I think the 3bet range you gave him is absolutely ridiculous unless you have history with him which you didn't provide.

please correct my math if I'm wrong
we risk losing 28bb (our $7 bet) to win 17bb (the pot before our bet 0.35 + 1 + 2.90 = $4.25) so he needs to fold ( 17/28 x 100 ) = 60.71% of the time for it to be break even? (before rake)

To break even, you want to find the "EV=0" point. If he folds x fraction of the time you win 17bb. When he doesn't fold, we assume you always loose 28bb. So:
x*17bb+(1-x)*(-28bb)=0
x*45bb=28bb
x=28/45=0.622=62.2% (which is 28/(28+17) for quick reference)

And note that when you bet more, he has to fold more often for your play to be profitable. For example if you bet 35bb, he has to fold 35/(35+17)=67.3% of the time.

id open smaller pre for sure