3betting a taggs BTN open from the BB with ATC.

Here is something I don't quite understand, or at least can't quite believe.

Running a report on my extensive lifetime database, I find that the average player who's VPiP is between 12 and 25, whos PFR is more that his VPiP / 1.5, and whos AF is greater than 3 (ie textbook TAGGS) runs thusly over 50K agregated hands:

VPiP: 18
PFR: 15
AF: 4.7
Folds when facing a 3bet after opening the button: 65 %
Calls when facing a 3bet after opening the button: 25 %
Folds when facing a cbet after raising and calling a 3bet: 65%

Hero 3bets 3.5x his opponents raise, and makes approximately 2/3 PSB Cbets. Hero Cbets 80% of his 3bet pots that he is given the chance to.

We are playing online NL 6 max, with a 100 BB stack, everyone has us covered. Hero is in the BB, and action is folded to Villain on the BTN who opens for 4 BB. SB folds. Hero Makes it 14 BB, thereby making:

- 13 BB initial 3bet.

+ 25 % of what we make when he calls {

80% of what we make from a Cbet {

We immediately loose 20 BB to the pot of 28 BB (the pot being 29.5 - 1.5 rake).

We gain 65% of what we make when he folds {28 pot + our 20 Cbet} = 31.2.

Total: -20 + 31.2 = 11.2

} = 8.96 BB.

} = 2.24 BB

+ 65 % of what we make when he folds preflop { 13 BB + blinds of 1.5 + plus his raise 4 BB = 18.5} = 12

Total: - the 13 I put in as a 3bet + the 2.24 we get back from taking a flop with this guy + the 12 we get back from him folding = +1.24 BB profit.

Is this math right? I think it is, and if it is, what the hell? Does that mean I need to 3bet my standrad TAGG from this spot with ATC? I already do it pretty light, but only with say suited gappers, and Axs. Am I leaving money on the table in this spot. The math looks right, but the idea of relentless creating big pots OOP with trash seems a little crazy. Surely even our most robotic 12-tabling TAGG is going to catch on farely quick when we do this 100% of the time. Do we need to let him see us fold every now and then? If we do, how do we pick when to fold? Do we do it with the trashiest of trash, or simply every 4th time we're in this spot without a value-hand? Which ever it is, how much folding do we need to do? 10%? 50%? What? In the above spot, against above villain, what range of hands are you 3betting?

What about against someone with with slightly less conducive stats. Someone who was a little more dogged post flop, but only slightly, so that this move would perhaps cost -0.01BB with ATC. We still want to be very light against this guy, but by how much? How do you quantify it?

Thanks.

You're forgetting about people will 4bet you lighter/bluff 4bet you if you do this every time. At least if they're aware of it. I guess if they're not, you can do it till they catch on I usually stay away from complete trash hands, but if his fold to 3bet % is very high I rather 3bet trash then a big hand. If his fold to 3bet% is very low, I rather 3bet AJ/KQ/TT etc. On average I try to 3bet more in Btn vs CO spots, cause we'll still have position postflop as well.

Just think about what spot you're in and against who, what his tendencies are and how to play best against that.