3:1 doesn't price in a flush draw. Or does it?

Say you have a flush draw.

The board is


You hold


The pot is $1000
Stacks are $12,000 each (currently, not before this pot)

Villain bets the pot, $1000, presumably with an ace.
You're getting ($1000 + 1000 +1000 = 3000 for 1000)
You get 3 to 1 odds.

Hey! a flush comes 1 in 3 so I'm in, right?

***
Why does everyone I know believe this? Isn't it completely wrong?

The odds of a flush coming (ON THE NEXT CARD) is 5:1. Thus, according to pure pot odds, you have been priced out.

Why should we calculate the odds of the flush hitting on the next card, instead of the next two, IMO? Because there is usually more betting done on the turn by the villain. The price is much higher than expected.

For our example hand, let's continue

You call the $1000 bet, having taken the 3:1 lay.
The turn makes the board

the pot is now $3000

Villain bets $2000.
(3k + 2k + 2k = 7k). You're getting 7:2 ("3.5" to 1)

You are priced out again. Odds of spade coming on the river are ~1:5 and so 7:2 is just no good.

Nevertheless, this hand always plays out the same. Hero with spade draw calls, hits, and gets little if any money on the river (nixing the much-needed implied odds that might make his call worthwhile [+EV]). He pats himself on the back later.

I've folded nut flush draws before, I'm just wondering if I've been wrong all this time. I understand that implied odds might be there. It's just that, usually, a three-suit board kills action. Thoughts? I think my problem is just not understanding how the pot odds work with two different bets on two different streets with cards to come.

Example: How big of a pot does the hero in this example need to build by the showdown to make his flop call profitable? His turn call? The whole hand (flop + turn) altogether? I know that if he doesn't get any extra on the river he spewed.

Ok some points. First of all on the flop the pot is $1000 and he is betting $1000. You are risking $1000 to win $2000 so thats 2:1 not 3:1.

Having said that, calling the flop is probably +EV.

With 2 streets to go and him liking his hand (and you having the nut draw) you probably have 5:1 implied odds. You only need to make another $3000 on 2 streets ON AVERAGE and the pot on the turn will be $3000 so quite alot of the time you will make much more than that.

Calling the turn is alot harder. At 5:1 you would need to make another $3000 in what will be a $7000 pot. If you think he will pay of a slightly bigger than half pot bet with an A then you can call. If you think he will bet out or raise some weaker hands its pretty easy.

If he pots the turn we probably cant call unless hes a big fish. Another thing to consider is that it is often more profitable to semibluff raise than it is to call. There are also alot of spots against reasonably tight players where calling is -EV but semibluff raising is +EV.

The deep stack situation is more complicated, because you have position, "real outs" and "hidden outs". You can hit your frush, represent someting else, and once in a blue moon (lol Fnord's words) you hit your pair and can show it down. Sometimes you'll destack villain if he led with weaker draw and you both hit or the other way around. Count boat redraws, tainted boards etc. Basically you gotta play poker with that hand. Drawing from time to time with marginally incorrect odds can also set up some future wins, when you decide to float drawy board with air/gutshots/other crap with your "chasy" image.


btw. hitting 9-outer with 1 card to come is around 20%, which is 4:1 odds, not 5:1.

So, if pot is $10 and you face $10 bet in front, pure implied odds require to make $30 on next street(s). Doesn't matter, what street it is from mathematical standpoint.

Here is great article of Bob Ciaffone about playing draws:
http://www.cardplayer.com/author/article/all/4/8839

for a single card you're looking at 4:1. For two cards it's 2:1.

4:1 = 1 in 5.
2:1 = 1 in 3.

true, but with a bet likely on the turn, you cant figure yourself for 2:1. this is a huge leak for noobs. not that youre one, assman. dude, seriously, you find asses that would convert a boob man...wow.

the only way you consider the 2:1 is if somebody shoves, and all betting is over.

i agree with implied odds making it better than 2:1, but you may need a read to get it to 5:1, imo.

Originally Posted by Vrax

Here is great article of Bob Ciaffone about playing draws:
http://www.cardplayer.com/author/article/all/4/8839

Great balance to this discussion about maths. Ciaffone is awesome. He's NL/PL HE book was one of the first poker books I really enjoyed.

there are like 2 my threads about something very similiar to this somewhere on this forum-search it maybe u find something

yes in many articles there is the 0.36 number for playing flushes but as there are 2 cards it makes no real sense, its somewhat a guide line how much u can call of on flop while having implied odds. u can usualy call 30% on flop cos there arnt many players who wont put atlesat half pot on river if u hit. u can also win by semibluffing turn so u dont need 20% rule for getting from flop to turn.


on Turn, its simple u probably have 9 outs (like 4:1) and u must evalute how much u can make out of him if the flush hits and calculate ur implied odds = bet : (pot+how_much_more_u_can_make). if u ae not getting good price and ur sure u loose with flush, u have to fold.

on Flop its more complicated because u can win it rigght there if ur opponent was pre-flop raiser and made his c-bet or u can lead into him.
if he bets into u pretty much have to evalute ur implied odds. maybe he is just making his c-bet and u can semibluff the turn in position and win it there against tighter player while still on draw. but if ur opponent is strong then u have to use ur experience and tkae a guess on how muchu can expect to win from that particular opponent.

I once read an article where this guy was saying that you need far better than 3:1 to draw to your flush because its almost certain that people will of folded some of your outs. And that at a full ring game nearly half of your outs will of been folded...
...which of course is absolute horse honky.

Originally Posted by Geanosssss

I once read an article where this guy was saying that you need far better than 3:1 to draw to your flush because its almost certain that people will of folded some of your outs. And that at a full ring game nearly half of your outs will of been folded...
...which of course is absolute horse honky.

thats pretty retarded

Originally Posted by Geanosssss

I once read an article where this guy was saying that you need far better than 3:1 to draw to your flush because its almost certain that people will of folded some of your outs. And that at a full ring game nearly half of your outs will of been folded...
...which of course is absolute horse honky.

he's psychic.