2nl - Bad Full House

Villain is 63/0, any post flop stats are check/calls, calls or folds. 3/3 call cbet

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

MP ($3.66)
CO ($2.64)
Button ($1.22)
SB ($1.20)
Hero (BB) ($2.11)
UTG ($2.16)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 6
UTG calls $0.02, 3 folds, SB calls $0.01, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.06) 6, 8, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.04, UTG calls $0.04, 1 fold

Turn: ($0.14) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.08, UTG calls $0.08

River: ($0.30) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.14, UTG raises $0.71, Hero ?

He is so passive that it scares me he has raised so much.

I need 34.5% or more equity against his range for it to be a +EV call.

Would he raise 88+? Any 8? Any 6? Any 9?

If it's any 6 or any 8 it's a definite fold ~15% equity. Is this too tight a range? If I include any 6, any 8, and 88+ I have 30.5% equity.

As soon as I add A9 it's a profitable call.

I'm lost.

I'm so torn.

On one hand, he's so passive that any bet from him is an almost automatic fold, and a raise on the river even more so.

On the other hand, he could be playing an over-pair terribly or binked a 6 to chop the pot. And while the pot odds may be bad, our assumption that he never bluffs a river is assuredly incorrect. It's just a matter of how seldom he does it. And it's hard to fold a boat. So hard.

I think sighcall and try to console yourself that it was less than 30 bigs and you are at a level where folding a boat is almost never bad. Just one of those times.

Alright, spoony... tell me how dumb I am.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I'm so torn.

On one hand, he's so passive that any bet from him is an almost automatic fold, and a raise on the river even more so.

On the other hand, blah blah talking myself into a call. And while the pot odds may be bad, our assumption that he never bluffs a river is assuredly incorrect. It's just a matter of how seldom he does it. And it's hard to fold a boat. So hard.

I think sighcall and try to console yourself that it was less than 30 bigs and you are at a level where folding a boat is almost never bad. Just one of those times.

Alright, spoony... tell me how dumb I am.

You're not dumb, but you are getting caught in an emotional trap that has to do with the absolute strength of your hand (ie: a full house). You typically come with some sort of concrete analysis, but you're waffling on this one, and it's interesting to watch.

Pot flop, pot turn, bet/fold or check/call river. He's never playing a worse hand this way. Check/call could be better because of the sheer size of his range and the number of missed draws he could have. Even if he turns them into bluffs a low percentage of the time, that's still a lot of hands.

For future reference, include the number of hands you have on Villain. It's an important piece of information.

very easy fold imo

The annoying thing is in my head I'm going "FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD" but I have a full house, and I'm aware it's not great in this situations, but I convince myself my opponents are worse and shoving with dirt which makes it profitable.

But then I suppose it's good I posted it as I play hands worse (imo) but I'm aware I should fold, whereas this I suppose I'm just asking if the assumption of worse players make it worse.

And thanks Spoon (btw mind if i ask you about a fix to the brm question i asked as I think you made a few mistakes) and thanks rpm and mmm

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Pot flop, pot turn, bet/fold or check/call river. He's never playing a worse hand this way. Check/call could be better because of the sheer size of his range and the number of missed draws he could have. Even if he turns them into bluffs a low percentage of the time, that's still a lot of hands.

I'll ask (but will probably work out myself tomorrow), is this +EV overall when i usually bet 60ish% on most flops(/most streets) (is this a leak when I do vary my range very slightly and cbet with a lot of dirt against people who fold far too much)

If I start betting more in certain situations I feel I give away my hand strength slightly as I'm always scared of an overpair (maybe I don't give away my hand strength as much as I think at this level).

(will review this post tomorrow, will probably be +EV if I stop trying to add stuff when a bit drunk)

Your bet sizing only gives you away against decent opponents who may notice. Against a 2nl fish who will call any size with draws or second/third pair or even can't fold AK, don't worry about giving away your hand and don't hesitate to bet for fat value.

^^

the above is important advice for value betting at micros. the trick is knowing when it doesn't apply (usually when you're against an opponent capable of remotely accurately assessing "what does he have" instead of just "what do i have"). on that note, this thread, more specifically your attachment to the name of your hand and resultant blindness to what your opponent has and what that means you should do, tells me you're probably somewhat stuck in the "what's the name of my hand?" mindset and need to become more "what does he have and what should i do as a result?"

oops that post sounds condescending. what i mean is you are too focussed on your "absolute hand strength" (which means how good your hand is on the list of holdem hand-rankings) instead of "relative hand strength" (how much your hand is actually worth given the hand you're up against)

edit: when i refer to your opponent's "hand" in above two posts, i mean range of hands. that's important to keep in mind

About the bet sizing issue, you barely get 100 hands with anyone at these stakes. 99% of these guys are not paying attention to bet sizing. You are one of those guys. If you were paying attention to bet sizing and every other little detail you wouldn't be playing 2NL imo. Worrying about next level shit when your opponents are horrible is a huge mistake and you are handi capping your winrate by doing it. If people at 1kNL are calling obvious value bets etc(not the best players) then trust me people at 2NL are going to call obvious value bets.

Yeah. The more I think about this hand, the more it's 9x.

Any value passed up on a call is minimal compared to what can be gained from just folding and playing future hands against this guy.

It's strange that I'm pretty good at knowing when my nowhere-near-nut hands are good, but not when my near-nut hands are bad. It does hinge on a rookie-level blindness to relative hand strength when absolute hand strength is high. This is a big eye-opener for me, and it seems lolobv, so hopefully this one will sink in fast.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Yeah. The more I think about this hand, the more it's 9x.

Any value passed up on a call is minimal compared to what can be gained from just folding and playing future hands against this guy.

It's strange that I'm pretty good at knowing when my nowhere-near-nut hands are good, but not when my near-nut hands are bad. It does hinge on a rookie-level blindness to relative hand strength when absolute hand strength is high. This is a big eye-opener for me, and it seems lolobv, so hopefully this one will sink in fast.

The only 9x I don't beat is 96, 98 and 99. That's very few of his possible combinations.

sorry, I meant 8x. He has the bigger boat a huge %-age of the time.

(geez. typo city for me lately.)

If the board was 6AA96 and you bet the river and villain raised as played, would you have a tough time folding?

A random villain playing 63/0 probably has 8x in their range just as likely as Ax or only somewhat less likely than Ax. If villain was like 10/0 I'd be more inclined to call cause they have less 8x, and for all we know they could be playing a hand like AA/KK really stupidly.