2NL 6max - extracting with set/turned FH vs loose aggro

Opp seems very loose aggro with 31 / 29 / 54ATS / 20-3b% / 2.5AF / 26% HEM AFq over 59 hands. Has 4b me on the two occasions that I 3b his steals and I folded. He seems a bit calmer post flop and is capable of checking down some of his fair hands (second pair, top pair weak kicker, A-high, etc).

Standard?

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.17)
CO ($0.93)
BTN ($4.44)
SB ($4.27)
Hero ($2.03)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.07, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.15, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($0.15, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.11, BTN raises to $0.42, Hero goes all-in $1.96

I like it, but have one question: Were you looking to c/r on the flop or hoping that he'd check behind and catch up a bit?

On this flop, there is really only KQ and 78s in his range that have half decent draws and he probably would not bet them, so I think I c/c flop.I think if he bets the flop, he has TPGK or better and air sometimes. I am likely to get a second barrel out of him on the turn when he has a good hand and give him a chance to catch up when he has air. If I raise this dry flop, he folds his air and at the very least becomes very weary with TP, because a raise here looks like at the very least an overpair.

The % he c bets flop is a far more important stat than anything you posted here.

I donk flop for .13 since you have seen him check down several mid strength hands over this small sample. With an ATS of 54% there are lots of 9x 6x and jx hands that based on your read he will check which is alot of missed value for you.

Villains turn range is largely a mix of 9x hands, random bluffs, and draws. From reads provided villain seems competent enough that he will fold his draws and possibly some of his 9s as well as the bluffs to this shove. I call turn and c/jam river since his 9's are probably betting it and that's only way you will get value from his draws (hit or miss) and bluffs.

He cbets 0%, but there are only 4 hands where he had a chance to (the rest he called in 3b pots, or took the pot pre, etc).

I still don't like donking the flop because he has a megaton of air in his range which folds to a donk bet.

TBH I think he is unlikely to bluff raise the turn. Haven't seen him bluff before anyway, and I think he is more the kind to call with, say, AhKh than raise with it. So after he raises, I'd say a 9 is one of his more likely holdings for doing this.

I hesitated to just call, but with a 9 or even a strong draw, he still has chances to outdraw me...

bet flop , maybe try C/R turn is he is that aggro postflop so u can build pot

As for donking the flop, i feel most of the money you will make in this hand comes when you both have a hand. The money you lose from only getting 2 streets of value when you could have gotten 3 is >>>>>> the money you could have gotten from picking off a bluff. When flop checks through your potential to win a big pot decreases dramatically.

On turn villains range may be mostly 9x hands, but there is definitely some non 0% of the time here he has a draw/bluff. If you feel this player will be calling you with his 9x enough i guess shove, but if he will fold a significant amount then def call.

Nice thing about calling is if we do get counterfit with a 9 or j its pretty easy fold on the river. Also c/jamming allows us to get alot of value from his hole range.

btw this is coming from a guy who plays 2nl so take it with a grain of salt

Originally Posted by daviddem

He cbets 0%, but there are only 4 hands where he had a chance to (the rest he called in 3b pots, or took the pot pre, etc).

I still don't like donking the flop because he has a megaton of air in his range which folds to a donk bet.

TBH I think he is unlikely to bluff raise the turn. Haven't seen him bluff before anyway, and I think he is more the kind to call with, say, AhKh than raise with it. So after he raises, I'd say a 9 is one of his more likely holdings for doing this.

I hesitated to just call, but with a 9 or even a strong draw, he still has chances to outdraw me...

Flop check is the most standard thing ever, if he has a hand he's going to c-bet himself so you're point about not extracting is void. Shove turn if he's fairly passive, if he's aggro call turn. That simple.

Hero has read that villain is, "capable of checking down some of his fair hands (second pair, top pair weak kicker, A-high, etc)" Ie. very possible he doesnt bet alot of 9's or like j7 type hands.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Flop check is the most standard thing ever, if he has a hand he's going to c-bet himself so you're point about not extracting is void.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Flop check is the most standard thing ever, if he has a hand he's going to c-bet himself so you're point about not extracting is void. Shove turn if he's fairly passive, if he's aggro call turn. That simple.

This fo sho.

His flop check and turn raise SCREAMS he has a 9. He's an idiot for not betting most 9x on the flop anyways. But yeah, it comes back down to tendencies. Either shove now or c/r or shove river.