Sorry I made a mistake and his 3b% is 23% (now corrected in OP). That is still only 3 hands though.
The ranges I give him may be too wide. One of the reasons is that I have seen him twice call 3b OOP, one of which with AJ in H1 where he stacks off rather lightly on the flop. Another is that even though 23% 3b is not very significant over this sample, it tends to be on the high side (yes I understand the stat: he 3b 23% of the times that he had an opportunity to, which is 3 hands out of 13). And the last one is that I have a suspicion that he is tilting from H1 which just happened.
Even if he calls a shove only with JJ+,AQs or QQ+,AQs, I still have 43-44% equity so I calculated that if he folds 30% of the time to the shove the play has a positive expectation (and yes I do understand that it does not mean that this is the highest EV play).
Whichever way:
- I am not calling the 3b OOP
- I am not folding
- that leaves shoving or 4b to $X
Which should it be?
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