25NL: Unloading the Clip

Alternative thread title could be: bluffing with little equity?

villain seems to be the 19/12 standard taggish type over about 50 hands. No specific reads other than I haven't seen him do anything out of line.


Stacks:
UTG mrdznuts ($23.50)
CO bizniz ($27.25)
BTN gamblingparlour ($40.77)
SB Stunt Rooster ($68.63)
BB Andyboy8888 ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) bizniz is CO
1 fold, bizniz raises to $0.85, gamblingparlour calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05, 2 players)
bizniz bets $1.50, gamblingparlour calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.05, 2 players)
bizniz bets $4.25, gamblingparlour calls $4.25

River: ($13.55, 2 players)
bizniz ($20.65)?


During play I thought I could get him to fold all pp's TT-55 and weak J's. This is the majority of his range imo. He could have AJ or QQ possibly, but those are not likely. Maybe I should wait for better reads before trying to get him to fold a J, even if it might be JT and it would be dumb of him to call a large river barrel? Thoughts?

EDIT: cut off the end of hh on accident

what was your river sizing?

If you're barreling the turn then you have to bet the river but this is just bad. c/f the turn.

Don't like it. I would like the turn barrel if you picked up some equity or A or K hit.... River is prob 100% spew (since 50 hands isn't great of sample).

Originally Posted by Donachello

If you're barreling the turn then you have to bet the river but this is just bad. c/f the turn.

Agree with this if you bet semi-large on the river. Preflop to me is meh but I can see it being ok.

You playing at Stars now?

given that he's had ample opportunity to fold i'm not seeing him having much thats going to fold to another bet on the river. he'd have to give you credit for a J or better after the turn. and if thats the case he should either fold or raise the turn, unless he's looking for value with something solid, call turn fold river is a pretty speww line for him to take no? ..call turn seems more like big hand looking for value on this board

i agree with donachello. pre is fine. and flop cbet is good because he will call with a weak range which has to fold on a shitload of turn cards (any heart or broadway card on the turn increases your pot equity and/or fold equity versus all the middle pairs he's peeling). however this turn doesn't increase the strength of your perceived range, or your actual range. so i prefer C/Fing this turn.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

what was your river sizing?

my sizing was 9.5 I think, it was def 9 something. I bet big because I didn't want him considering a call with 88 or JT.

agree with DC and others. I think this play can be ok against the right opponent but at this point I don't think we have good enough reads.

So everyone would barrel an A, K, heart turn??

Originally Posted by kmind

Agree with this if you bet semi-large on the river. Preflop to me is meh but I can see it being ok.

You playing at Stars now?

No I've been playing RUSH a little bit lately. Still undecided about it but I'm trying to mix my play between 4 tables rush and 4-6 tables normal.

Originally Posted by kfaess

agree with DC and others. I think this play can be ok against the right opponent but at this point I don't think we have good enough reads.

So everyone would barrel an A, K, heart turn??

Probably, but more inclined towards barreling Ks than As because of the tendency to float Ax hands being massively higher than Kx hands though I'd probably just barrel both.

Also, another thing that makes this turn so bad to barrel is that 1) you have like no hands in your range that it helps (according to most 25NL regs at least in terms what they would usually credit you for). 2) If they chose to float the flop with Ax, which I am seeing more and more these days on dry flops, then this card gave those hands a GSSD to with being what most consider to be an nonthreatening card. I'd actually say that your fold equity might have decreased on the turn from where it was on the flop vs a good number of regs.

Originally Posted by kfaess

my sizing was 9.5 I think, it was def 9 something. I bet big because I didn't want him considering a call with 88 or JT.

double digit sizing is infinitely better, i.e. I'd expect 10 to work much more often than 9

Could be a cool spot to overbet the turn

like $6.50, but I think it's fun to do stupid shit like this so I'd be interested to hear others opinions on doing so

One and done >>>>>>>> fire 3 >>> fire 2

This is a shitty shitty turn card to barrel unless you think it's really likely he's folding shit like 88-TT on blank rivers. He'll have a decent amount of Jx here which will pretty much never fold to 3 barrels and will frequently call down shit like TT on this board too. If I was to fire 3 here I'd make the river big but even then meh.

If his range foir calling flop and turn is something like 22 33 44 JTs QJs KJs AJ 77-TT then on the river, if you CAN make him fold 77-TT, that's only 24 combos, out of 52 so even then it's meh. We'd need to bet big enough to fold out JT-KJ type of shit, good luck with that readless atr 25NL!

Originally Posted by kfaess

So everyone would barrel an A, K, heart turn??

yes, and once you're called twice, this is a pretty horrible river to fire the 3rd on.

If you pick up equity on the turn, barreling is standard... But this is just spew imo, he's rarely folding any hands in that range.

I'm actually really glad I posted this hand

I learned some stuff and reinforced other stuff that I know but have not been applying