25NL - TT on scary turn

A spot here on the turn where I'm fairly lost.

Villain is unknown, except that he bought in for the standard 80bb and posted UTG. This is his second hand at the table.

€0.10/€0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (€9.01)
CO (€25)
Hero (€25)
SB (€34)
BB (€18.90)

Pre-Flop: (€0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls €0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to €1.25, 1 fold, BB calls €1, UTG folds

Flop: (€2.85, 2 players)
BB bets €0.25, Hero raises to €2.50, BB calls €2.25

Turn: (€7.85, 2 players)
BB bets €0.50, €0.5 to Hero (€21.25)?


Preflop: Given his UTG post I'm assuming he's fairly fishy. I'd say his range for calling by BU iso is something like { 22+, 54s+, broadways, A6s+, A8o+, K8s+, K9o, Q9s, J9s }, but I'd appreciate guidance/opinions on this one. I'm assuming he's repopping his really big hands, but since he's completely unknown maybe I should leave them in? I'm leaving AK in.

Flop: The flop comes and he donks out for minimum. I take this to mean that he has either a draw and he wants to see cheap cards, or he has something that he wants to get to showdown with cheaply. Not a great indicator of strength, flush draws, OESDs, gutterballs, one pair hands probably not top pair. I raise accordingly, and he just flats (which I think he could probably do with his entire min-donking range). {22-99, 54dd-87dd, T9s, J9s, K8s, KT-KJ, A6s-AJs, A8o-AJo} I obviously crush this range.

Turn: He donks again, I wouldn't be surprised if it's again with his entire range. However, I don't think he's gonna call with the really weak shit (ie. straight draws) when I raise again. If he calls with all his flushes and straights, then I just need him to also be doing this with AJ and 88 to have enough equity to raise here. As I say, I'm kinda lost. Thoughts?

Im pretty lost as well.

Im inclined to keep betting/raising just cuz we have massive equity against things that beat us. Like we're 42% against J9, and we still have 25% against AK of diamonds. Surely he has QJ, QT, JT, 88 AQ enough to keep betting.

But idk

I'd like to hear why you raised the flop so small.

Calling the turn has the benefit of getting 423512345:1, but has the disadvantage of giving him 423512345:1 when he has Ad4c or some other random shit. Shoving the turn has the benefit of probably getting value from random crap like KTo. Hands like J8 are definitely in his range, and he's not folding those either. I think shoving the turn is better than calling because of how many river cards suck for you.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'd like to hear why you raised the flop so small.

Calling the turn has the benefit of getting 423512345:1, but has the disadvantage of giving him 423512345:1 when he has Ad4c or some other random shit. Shoving the turn has the benefit of probably getting value from random crap like KTo. Hands like J8 are definitely in his range, and he's not folding those either. I think shoving the turn is better than calling because of how many river cards suck for you.

Not to mentioned our redraw to the straight flush!

But seriously, I'd like a larger flop raise and I think spoon is right about the shove. However... this spot is teh gay.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'd like to hear why you raised the flop so small.

Originally Posted by DC

I'd like a larger flop raise

That's actually probably a couple of big blinds more than I would normally raise in this spot. I have to admit it's (sadly one of far too many) a place where I don't really think about my raise size. What's small/big for you guys here?

I think my reasoning behind the rather arbitrary pick of 2.5 was that the pot is about 3 (3.35 after my call, I guess), so I'm betting near pot without going over it. I guess you both feel betting larger doesn't change his continuing range substantially/at all?

As I say, when you say "so small" I have no idea if you mean standard would be 3.5 or 7.5 or what. Interested in hearing thoughts on it, though. I can see that if I make it like 6, then I'm setting up a fairly easy turn shove, which is nice. But I would be worried that he's not willing to call with his draws when I go from 0.25 all the way up to 6.

3.5 on the flop, call turn

I think calling vs raising here is so 'dead even wtf' that either one works.

Anything less than $3.50 on the flop is small imo... There is just no reason you shouldn't raise large here. His min-donk lead weights his range so much towards draws, pair + draws, that we know this villain is going to continue with that we should be raising large with all of our value hands to emphasize his inevitable calling mistake.

As far as the turn, as stated you are getting insanely good odds to call. But also, villain is getting insanely good odds to draw if he is behind. It's too late for me to go plugging in ranges or anything, but we have such great equity when behind, and his range is still probably weighted towards non-nut hands, that raising and getting the money in can't be a bad thing.