25NL stats check, 5K hands

I don't know much about these #s but here they are:

4776 hands
VPIP: 18.1
From SB: 21.2
Fold SB to steal: 87
Fold BB to steal: 80
W$WSF: 38.7
Went to SD: 20.4
PF Raise %: 7.27
Won$SD: 50

BB/100: 10.99

Look good to me. Very tight, even from the SB. I don't know how 25NL plays these days, but you might be able to up your PFR% a little in position and steal a few more blinds/limps or take down decent pots with c-bets. 5K hands is a pretty small sample size, but nice winrate!

I don't know how 25NL plays these days, but you might be able to up your PFR% a little in position and steal a few more blinds/limps or take down decent pots with c-bets.

This is a very profitable thing to do at 25NL. I started doing it a couple of weeks ago, and all of thoose small pots really add up. Especially when they call you raise and let go to your c-bet, position really is a big moneymaker. Another thing about raising more hands, this will give you more action on your good hands, as people see you raising alot of pots. Win win really.

Numbers all looking fine to me

everything looks good. is this FR or 6max? if it is 6max, then i would def. up the PFR% atleast.

This is FR. I want to crush this for at least 10K hands, then crush 50NL for at least 10K hands, then learn SH

Originally Posted by LeFou

This is FR. I want to crush this for at least 10K hands, then crush 50NL for at least 10K hands, then learn SH

not to piss on your parade, but i would like to see your numbers after you have your first run in with the variance bug.

your win rate is nice, but with those tight numbers, not sustainable over 10-15k hands, imo. you will settle down into the 4-7 BB/100 range (which is nothing to feel bad about, btw). move up to 50 NL and find the game is a bit tighter yet, and the win rate will stay about the same.

move to SH...AND GET KILLED, or struggle to stay positive, at the least. just because you "crush" a FR game has absolutely no bearing on even breaking even in a SH game. you can survive FR w/ pre-flop game alone (because by playing premiums, these hands will for the most part play themselves post-flop), but when switching to SH, you MUST HAVE a post flop game! and FR win rates bring false confidence.

just like FR, you will have to take your lumps and learn the nuances of SH, too...and during that time, your win rate will suffer. just play the best poker you can, and forget about win rate (only check it once a week or so...not everyday).

yeah, um .. i've actually been playing awhile. *and been hit by the variance bug. Just "starting over" as it were... maybe beginners' circle isn't the right place for this thread, but I figured this is where i'd find the 25NL guys

LeFou, no offense meant. i just wanted it noted that coming in "new" and putting a run together of 11BB/100 is great, but not CRUSHING the game with only a 5k history. there is still a long way to go before you can be confident in that win rate. and we all know that things tend to change over the next 5-10k hands when we start out up 11 BB's.

Don't blame LeFou for being slightly annoyed by the way you replied to his post, Chopper. I don't really see a point in the harsh tone you used to reply to that particular statement.

Courtie, don't shed tears for Lefou. I don't see anything particularly harsh out Chopper's response. Bluntly honest maybe.
Although Chopper, you see that FTR Champion logo next to Lefou's name? He probably knows a little about varience. He also has almost 2300 posts. Frankly I was surprised to see Lefou posting 25NL stats!

Originally Posted by Chopper

Originally Posted by LeFou

This is FR. I want to crush this for at least 10K hands, then crush 50NL for at least 10K hands, then learn SH

not to piss on your parade, but i would like to see your numbers after you have your first run in with the variance bug.

your win rate is nice, but with those tight numbers, not sustainable over 10-15k hands, imo. you will settle down into the 4-7 BB/100 range (which is nothing to feel bad about, btw). move up to 50 NL and find the game is a bit tighter yet, and the win rate will stay about the same.

move to SH...AND GET KILLED, or struggle to stay positive, at the least. just because you "crush" a FR game has absolutely no bearing on even breaking even in a SH game. you can survive FR w/ pre-flop game alone (because by playing premiums, these hands will for the most part play themselves post-flop), but when switching to SH, you MUST HAVE a post flop game! and FR win rates bring false confidence.

just like FR, you will have to take your lumps and learn the nuances of SH, too...and during that time, your win rate will suffer. just play the best poker you can, and forget about win rate (only check it once a week or so...not everyday).

lol

Silly String, don't get on courtiee's case for getting on Chopper's case for getting on my case 'cause I thought Chopper was ...

just kidding, that's all silly.

Y, I basically had to cash out the whole BR in October and am getting back to basics, assessing the new fish-unfriendly legal environment, etc.

Anyway, I've never been an avid PokerTrackerEr and am not asking whether 11BB is sustainable. I'm asking whether the stats that describe my *decisions look good.

I should say one thing, though:

we all know that things tend to change over the next 5-10k hands when we start out up 11 BB's.

This is a statistical fallacy, like saying if you flip a coin heads 4 times in a row it's less likely to come up heads next time.

I started out up 11BB/100. This has no effect on how my next 5K hands will go. Except of course for ye olde Overconfidence Virus. And I've been around that block a few times, too.

See you again in 5K hands. Will take some of yr suggestions for a spin.

I have trouble playing any form of Hold'em with a PFR under 10%.

Originally Posted by Silly String

Courtie, don't shed tears for Lefou. I don't see anything particularly harsh out Chopper's response. Bluntly honest maybe.

I didn't make the post for Lefou's sake, I made it for the sake of any new player in the forum who posts and has to recieve a response like that. New players don't need replies in harsh tones, they need encouraging replies. Yes, they should be honest and they should not be sugar coated, but they also need not be condescending in any way whatsoever.

you want a "real" response?

your numbers look fine. there, i said it. i really put myself on a limb there. oh, and btw, when you want other advice on specific hands, the answer is: "its read-dependent." oh no, not another risque answer. are these the answers we want to promote? if we cant speak our minds, however honestly/bluntly, then what is the point? we are all grown-ups, right?

c'mon guys. i didnt rip him hard (we've all been flamed worse), and he HAS been around the block. the answer was for new people reading this thread in hopes they would not see EVERYONE being nice and saying, "great job, you rock" like they tend to do. talk about your false confidence booster.

in response to the "next 5k hands," i understand the point of the past cannot be changed, or, i'm sorry, "past returns are no indication of future performance," but...

if 11 BB's/100 is not sustainable, your win-rate will come back to earth. maybe only to 8, and that would be great. maybe it should be 15. i dont know, none of us do, but one thing is for sure, the win-rate WILL change over the next 5k hands. i think most of us can agree that 11 is VERY high (and therefore unsustainable for most)...so, odds are the next 5k hands will lower the win rate. besides, in a coin flip, if i show heads 1200 times out of 1201 tosses, sure, the next one is 50/50 to still be heads, but over the "long run" (and thats what we play poker for, right?) we all know tails is gonna make a comeback. and we ALL would start putting our money on tails.

EDIT: i got on a soapbox of sorts again. it is the holiday season after all, and isn't that what "family" does...FIGHT?!

all kidding aside, my real answer to the OP...vpip looks great, pfr looks a tad low. i think you can safely bump it to 12% or so with aggression in your sc's and small pp's. i think it will increase both your action with premiums and also your variance (but who am i to give advice, you are the one with the huge win-rate, currently?). w$sd looks low, i hear it should be upper 50's. and another thing i think we should all consider...FR, or not, we should be stealing blinds around 25-30% of the time. that puts pressure on the blinds to make horrible calls...and we all know they like to call smallish raises from the blinds...get paid for it! that also increases the likelyhood of AA on the button getting called by at least the blinds...a big money maker.

but who really knows right now? the US legislation has definitely affected the game, to a degree. i feel the pf game across the board has gotten much tighter, not better, just tighter. this makes it tougher to get paid off when against crappy hands, as they are fewer and farther between.
i'm out.

Target a PFR% of at least 1/2 of your VP$IP, LeFou. That's upping the juice just a bit, for now, which a few more blindsteals should take care of. And your winrate is perfectly sustainable at the stakes.

Playing tight is fine.

The real game doesn't start until the flop is delt IMHO.

These are just typical nit solid full ring stats. GJ. I'd start playing more hands so you can become excited about making money.

Playing tight pre-flop is fine.