25NL: peeling with overs

Villain is 25/23/5.0 with 14%3b over about 75 hands, so he's a pretty aggro player.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Gidlof ($43.13)
UTG+1 oxiej56 ($32.23)
CO baroness88 ($25.51)
BTN Hero ($25)
SB JokerRipper ($25)
BB HotRodLuke ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, oxiej56 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35, 2 players)
oxiej56 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.35, 2 players)
oxiej56 checks, Hero ($22.5)?



Seems to be loosish PF so I'm thinking he might call with worse PF if we 3b here?

I peel flop because I think this is going to miss his range quite a bit and vs all but the strongest part of his range we have 6 outs if we're not already ahead. Also, if we hit one of our outs there's a good chance he's going to barrel it.

Thoughts?

This is fairly bad. This flop has sex with your BU flatting range, and it's one I'd expect a lot of regs to c/f a decent amount, hence making his c betting range stronger. I'd just fold to the c-bet honestly. Unless he c bets like 85% I'm not gonna do anything here without more equity and even then meh. He can also have a bunch of draws he's barreling the turn with and that really sucks for our plan, if he's aggro he's just barreling the turn more in general anyway so this is bad.

So many better boards to play back on and you're gonna have plenty strong hands and draws here on this flop in this spot that you can just happily fold AQ.

3-betting pre can be good provided he isn't folding loads. depends on your image and how he plays vs 3 bets.

As played he's giving up here with most worse hands and letting you get to sd. Other than like 22-55 and AK you don't fold out much that you beat. He can be c/c/pot controlling a bunch of his decent pairs on this turn since he hates the 9. So yeah just check as played. If you had QJ it'd be a bet but you are ahead enough at sd here and you're getting to showdown like 80% of the time vs worse hands.

his cbet % is fairly important. - like carrot said, if he's aware of how your range connects there it becomes a bad flop to float. It might still be a decent one to bluffraise if he doesn't think you're capable of raising total airballs here, knows about pokerstove and is capable of folding.
Lots of decent regs will just b/f this flop with KK and not even cry, because they know they're way behind a raising range that contains sets, straights and semi-bluffs.
His bet size looks mega fishy tho. If you play a lot with him I would definitely try to attack this and make a note on that size on that texture.

As played I would check back - you're not worried about him drawing: he would have barrelled. If he checks again on the river you can decide whether you think you have enough showdown value (probably not) - if I'm bluffing the river there, I would go with an overbet. 1.5-2x pot, cuz then you're dealing with his pot control range that he will just lol-fold.

Hadn't noticed how small this c bet is. It defo does make me mopre likely to attack, but he still needs to have a high c bet% and low barrel % to float here.

yea I forgot to mention the betsize in the OP but I played this hand earlier today and def remember taking that into consideration while at the table.

oskar why do you want to bluff the river? Are you assuming that he has a low cbet %?? vs a high cbet % if we check the turn then all of his air is getting to the river. Based on convo in irc with carrotz I wouldn't expect him to bluff the river because I think he'll tend to give me credit for something with SD value after I peel flop and I don't think he would expect to be able to get me to fold it after he checks the turn. Therefore I can check back river and expect to win a lot of the time.

Another point to consider: if we think that he's cbetting a lot and getting to the turn with all of his air, then by checking we're giving him a free draw at beating us. If he has a hand like KJ then we're giving it a chance to catch outs when it will probably fold the turn when we bet.

btw I just looked up his stats and he has cbet 5/6 times, so small sample size.

Here's a rough range for action after his turn check: 22, 33, 55, KQ, QJ, AK, AJ, A5s-A4s (maybe), and then maybe some weak made hands he's trying to pot control/giving up like 76s, 54s, A8s, A7s

I can't really think of anything else he could have, which is why I wanted to actually type that out. Carrotz I think you said in irc he might check turn with pair+straight draw type hands but wouldn't he barrel these except for the weakest ones that he's folding to a turn bet anyways?

For example if he has T8s here, I think he's barreling. If he has T9, I think he's barreling. So isn't his turn check range fairly weak here?

It really doesn't matter how weak his range is. If he has virtually no calling range, but still some hands that beat us, you can just fire away. But I think you need to overbet.
He could definitely check turn and river with Axs that had a pair on the flop, 45,67, 22,33,55,66. - if he can have that, and virtually no solid value hands, then betting is better than checking, assuming he'll fold those. I overbet because aggressive players are paranoid, and don't like folding, but they're also decent hand readers for the most part and a river overbet is just always the nuts.

The free card on the turn for his low broadway range is microscopical in equity. You would have to weight it against his reverse implied odds when he has Qx and you both hit a Q and stuff... I don't think that's really worth weighting in.

Althouigh we never check the turn back with the nuts ever. if he's a decent hand reader I'm less inclined to overbet the river because we rep close to nothing unless he thinks we're a fish, and I assume we look like a reg etc. I think there are 7x 8x 9x hands he can c/c most river bets with and while I don't think overbetting is terrible, I do think he'll still have a c/c range on the river since our turn check and blast most rivers makes no sense. On 4 straight, or flush card rivers I'm fine betting big as a bluff because I think we can fold out the middling pairs he c/c turn with and we obv rep a bit more. On blanks though 25NL regs are going to get suspicious since they haven't quite mastered folding yet and our turn check jus lol takes away all the value hands we'd bet so big on the river with. If you think he can't hand read at all and willjust fold his 8x shit etc to a big bet then sure fire away, but I don't think we should just be assuming this. We do still beat a tonne of his range when he checks river.

This guy will likely fail to value bet at all thinly so A8 T9s Q9 K9 A9 T8s, fuck knows sometimes even overpairs (although not too often) are in his river c/c range especially on blanks when our line looks so bizzare.

I like that explanation about the river overbet carrotz.

The main question I have tho is why you think this type of player (somewhat aggro stats) is not going to be barreling his A8 T9s Q9 K9 A9 T8s and overpairs in this spot, esp if he thinks this board hit our BU flatting range and we have 7's, 8's, 9's, and draws a lot here.

Originally Posted by kfaess

I like that explanation about the river overbet carrotz.

The main question I have tho is why you think this type of player (somewhat aggro stats) is not going to be barreling his A8 T9s Q9 K9 A9 T8s and overpairs in this spot, esp if he thinks this board hit our BU flatting range and we have 7's, 8's, 9's, and draws a lot here.

Sometimes he might, but seriously I think a ton of regs, even ones who are solid for 25Nl will just hate this turn card, how well our range connects with this board overall and fear getting raised on the turn. Pot control lines in these spots at these limits are really common from hands as strong as overpairs where people don't quite know how to b/f properly.

yea that makes sense

Haven't read much other responses except for the first and it's basically exactly what I wanted to write. This flop hits our range very nicely BUT when he cbets I think his range > our range so I just muck it there.