25NL medium pp faces turn lead

My thinking on the flop is that betting makes his worse hands fold and only better hands call or raise, like Qx/8x/TT/JJ, so I plan on betting any non scary turn if checked to me, or calling a small bet. The A is rather scary however, and when villain leads should we call or fold? Raising seems out of the question since we would be bluffing when we have a medium strength hand.

Villain 18/3, 2.3 AF and 58 AFq:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($26.90)
SB ($27.93)
BB ($6.18)
UTG ($26.66)
Hero (UTG+1) ($25)
MP1 ($10.99)
MP2 ($30.71)
CO ($14.63)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9, 9
1 fold, Hero bets $0.85, 5 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 8, 8, Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.80) A (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero ????

Total pot: $1.80 | Rake: $0.09

Fold this turn since you only beat bluffs and you're really only calling to cross your fingers that he doesn't bet the river which he will a lot of the time. Ez fold.

We can bet this flop though since he'll call with worse pairs and we'll likely get to check back the turn for pot control.

cbet the flop. we should be betting our entire range on a dry board like that

as played fold the turn

Originally Posted by AFchung

cbet the flop. we should be betting our entire range on a dry board like that

Please explain.

betting here would be 'merging out range' right?

I think it's played fine if you fold here. Betting the flop is only hoping from called from 77- or OOP floats from A-highs. Which in both cases, while not entirely unreasonably, might be a bit of a stretch without reads that he is a station.

Checking back is likely to get a bluff from the rest of his range that we beat on safe turns that we can call. And if he checks the turn, we get a good bit of information, and can feel pretty comfortable about our hand (depending on turn card). In which we can then value bet the turn, and maybe the river.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

betting here would be 'merging out range' right?

yeah
basically when you don't expect people to just believe you right away it could be good
but that's why it needs reads

18/3, 2.3 AF and 58 AFq

FYI not a read

so if he loves calling these flops with Ax because he's a fish then it's a clear bet
if he's a terrible nit and folds like everything below a queen it's a bet (!) because we're making him fold JJ, TT and hands that he doesn't know have 6 of outs like AJ
if he's the type who never believes you have have anything and autofloats this flop with garbage, it's a bet on the flop, bet on the turn
if he's the type to c/r dry flops because lol you have nothing it's a check on the flop and call the turn on like any card other than K or A pretty much (fold this though)

Originally Posted by iopq

autofloats this flop with garbage, it's a bet on the flop, bet on the turn

i don't get why we bet the flop against a floater. isn't that going to force us to fold the turn much more often than we'd like with our SD value? unless you misread the HH and thought we were OOP, then it makes sense to me

other than that pretty much full agreement here. value bet A-rag fish and sooooted fish who have a fold to f cbet of like <30%, and cbet nits as a bluff.

I like cbetting flop. Checking behind is very transparant imo, to a degree that if villain is even thinking about our hand he knows he shouldn't be bluffing turn because we're always calling.

Ofcourse if you're checking behind a balanced range there are other lines with this hand as well, but at micro's I think cbetting 100% here is balancing enough.

Originally Posted by surviva316

Originally Posted by iopq

autofloats this flop with garbage, it's a bet on the flop, bet on the turn

i don't get why we bet the flop against a floater. isn't that going to force us to fold the turn much more often than we'd like with our SD value? unless you misread the HH and thought we were OOP, then it makes sense to me

other than that pretty much full agreement here. value bet A-rag fish and sooooted fish who have a fold to f cbet of like <30%, and cbet nits as a bluff.

Huh? Why would we be forced to fold the turn when we're in position unless you mean villain's going to lead or c/r the turn a lot? We don't really have any reason to believe that. If he's floating a lot then it's definitely bet flop/bet turn.

Originally Posted by Parasurama

Originally Posted by surviva316

Originally Posted by iopq

autofloats this flop with garbage, it's a bet on the flop, bet on the turn

i don't get why we bet the flop against a floater. isn't that going to force us to fold the turn much more often than we'd like with our SD value? unless you misread the HH and thought we were OOP, then it makes sense to me

other than that pretty much full agreement here. value bet A-rag fish and sooooted fish who have a fold to f cbet of like <30%, and cbet nits as a bluff.

Huh? Why would we be forced to fold the turn when we're in position unless you mean villain's going to lead or c/r the turn a lot? We don't really have any reason to believe that. If he's floating a lot then it's definitely bet flop/bet turn.

my bad. i thought the definition of a float play was calling a cbet with the intention of bluffing the turn (or at least a good portion of potential turn cards), which would involve either leading the turn or c/r'ing. i guess i need clarification on this definition

OOP floats go like this:
call cbet
check turn, if villain checks turn back stab river

OOP floats go like this:
call cbet
check turn, if villain checks turn back stab river

oh...k. lol i guess the bet, bet line makes much more sense now then

Originally Posted by nish81

I think c-betting the flop is fine here unless you're trying not to always c-bet, in which case this is a good hand to c-bet since it has some showdown value.

it's the opposite, if we want to show it down we should check, if we want to protect our equity in the hand by making people fold overs we should bet and hope for a fold, but be OK with a call as long as we don't get any more action