25NL FR - TPTK on turn vs Aggressive player

I just sat at table but I had a small sample of stats from opp before.
He is 49/18 after 113 hands


Button ($5.45)
SB ($6.26)
BB ($9.45)
UTG ($19.05)
UTG+1 ($24.75)
Hero (MP1) ($24.15)
MP2 ($6.27)
MP3 ($22.80)
CO ($12.86)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, Q
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 4 folds, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.80) Q, 10, 2 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $2.80, Hero calls $2.80, 1 fold

Turn: ($8.40) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.40, Hero ???


I would assume we are ahead of his range, but should I be using any other stats? Normally I would just assume he has something big.. since he bet 2 streets and bet pretty big on the turn, but clearly thats a bad thought proccess and clearly hes a bad player.. So I gave him this range

TT+,AJs+,KJs+,QTs+,AQo+,KJo+,QTo+ and probably some flushdraws
is that range too big? not big enough?

I am ~63% against that range.. so I think getting allin on turn is good?
Judging by his poor stats, I would assume most of the range is also his calling range.. maybe he folds QJ.. but I think he calls with QK and all the draws.

Any feedback is greatly appreciated.. also I apologize for the suit images, I am not sure why they arent showing up properly.. should I use a different hand converter in the future?

You've played 113 hands with him, you must know a bit more than his vpip/pfr. Like aggression frequency per street. He's potting twice, that's something noteworthy. How often is he getting to showdown?

I think he's weak here and you can either call, but it's going to be a hard river if he jams. It would really depend on his betting frequency tendencies at that point. I'd add a lot of flush draws to your range and 22, remove KJ and AJ (unless they're hearts or spades, blockers excluded bla bla).

WTSD 25%
AFq Flop 37.14
AFq Turn 37
AFq River 55.5

Total AFq 39.7
Total AF 1.56

Other stats that might be useful
Cbet flop 72%
Cbet turn 100%

That's very high AFq for someone with 49/18. I'm calling down, happy about it or shoveling works too. This will be AA,KK sometimes, but mostly KQ, QJ, JJ plus any number of flush draws IMO.

Hand 0: 42.562% 42.56% 00.00% 824 0.00 { TT+, 22, AsKs, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, KcJc, KdJd, QJs, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 57.438% 57.44% 00.00% 1112 0.00 { AhQc }

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

That's very high AFq for someone with 49/18.

hello. i don't know what you mean by this. why should his preflop play (vpip/pfr) be relative to his aggressiveness/passivity postflop?
also the turn cbet stats are probably pretty irrelevant over only 100ish hands in my opinion. because turn cbets need 2 things to happen prior, they require a pretty large sample. although i'd take a note that he did this and see if you can spot a pattern for what hands he does this robot auto-pot line.

Originally Posted by rpm

hello. i don't know what you mean by this. why should his preflop play (vpip/pfr) be relative to his aggressiveness/passivity postflop?
also the turn cbet stats are probably pretty irrelevant over only 100ish hands in my opinion. because turn cbets need 2 things to happen prior, they require a pretty large sample. although i'd take a note that he did this and see if you can spot a pattern for what hands he does this robot auto-pot line.

If someone plays only a very tight range, they will be betting a high percent of their flops and turns for value because they will normally have very strong holdings. If someone plays a very wide range but still bets a high amount of the flops and fires 100% turns after c-betting, he will usually be betting quite lightly or bluffing a lot because his initial range is weak and is less likely to be something strong on the flop/turn.

Feel free to correct me if my logic is wrong there.

Thanks... greatly appreciated, I need a better understanding of AFq...
I never considered his VPIP/PFR stats when looking at his AFq.. definitely makes sense

Lol he barrels 100 % and his PFR is 18, im definitely doing anything but folding. Shoving would be barely past minraising so he's probably stacking off all his draws thinking he has pot odds, lol. He's calling his whole barreling range here most likely, against which u have equity. So I'd certainly be happy shoving and avoiding a tough river spot if he triple barrel bluffs/vbets on one of the 2 FDs.

He's probably not positionally aware if you read him as being a donk also, so there are probs heaps of weaker FDs in his range too.

Were you playing PL25 or NL25?

shoving would be less than minraising*

it was 25NL, it was on AP, so he was just hitting the bet pot button lol

rpm,

I THINK its because since his VPIP/PFR are both SOOO high.. that his postflop stats are going to be greatly skewed by multiway pots with a lot of people where its harder for him to be aggressive.

Compared to someone that is something like 12/8.. who will have a larger portion of their hands that are 2-3 handed

so, essentially, we are more inclined to think he's barreling with a whole heap more non-nut hands (whether they be middling pairs, draws, or pure air) than your average player, correct? i see your logic but i've never thought of using those stats in that way so its not sinking straight in to my simple mind.

Yea, I believe that is it.. but we will have to wait for Gobbatino to confirm what he meant because I am not 100% sure either.

fold to 3b stat and our image against him would be helpful because my standard is to 3b/fold against this type of player

makes sense to me. thanks for clarifying!