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 Originally Posted by rpm
i think you can discount flopped sets because he may be 3bet jamminh these on the flop a decent %% of the time. especially being such a wet board. i think his range is
Board: 7s 8c 5c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 43.18% 00.00% 247 0.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 56.818% 56.82% 00.00% 325 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, KcJc }
i dont know how you got 36%. even without the sets he can have that you beat i'm getting 43%. i think i like a jam here. he may even have like KK or AA without a club because your small bet on the turn made him spazz out.
But we don't know how he plays which hand, and he doesn't always play a certain hand the same way, thus I have weighted his range.
It would be unusual for him to play a set of 5s like this, but it's not impossible. I think of the times the he has a set of 5s, he plays it like above 15% of the time. I think he opts to check call with over pairs + 1 card fd more often than check raises, but that doesn't mean he doesn't check raise ever. Again, one needs to weight sections of a range.
Scroll to the section headed "Bayes Theorem".
The 2+2 Forum Archives: Instareads: Bayes theorum and small sample sizes
The thing with a shove is, I'm behind if he calls, I think (tell me otherwise?), but calling with the intention of folding any river, other than perhaps a 4th club, is pretty ridiculous. Or maybe it isn't; perhaps someone wants to tell me why it's fine to do that. I also think I have <5% FE.
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