25NL Flopped set against nit

Villain is 15/7/3.1 over 100.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($32.90)
Hero (MP) ($44.50)
CO ($27.40)
Button ($5)
SB ($25.35)
BB ($5.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8, 8
UTG bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 7, 5, 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.75, UTG calls $3.25

Turn: ($11.35) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.25, UTG raises to $12, [color=#CC3333]Hero does what? What's his plan for the river?

I think he occasionally plays a set of 5s/7s this way, probably mostly plays a set of queens this way, mostly plays a flush {AcTc-Kc, KcJc} this way, and might occasionally play KK+ with a club this way. I think he very rarely has a bluff, and only folds to a raise if he does. Not sure how to express that as a range. Like this, perhaps:

{AcTc-Kc, KcJc} 80%
{55} 15%
{77} 25%
{QQ} 60%
{AcAh, AcAs, AcAd, KcKh, KcKs, KcKd} 15%
{air which is drawing dead} negligible

You'll just have to trust me that this gives me 36% equity, and that's plenty to call his raise, not to mention the implied fill up odds.

My problem is, if I call his check-raise, what kind of river do I fold to? If I'm going to fold some rivers, isn't that awful, being as there'll be less than a psb left come the river? I can't fold the turn, because I'm getting the right price. I could shove, and wouldn't have this problem, but then I'd be getting the 15.40 on top in bad, wouldn't I?

Would it have been better to check behind, and make a medium sized v-bet on the end, or call a decent sized lead from him, assuming an innocuous river card?

I guess I hate slowing down. Probably means I'm an agro-donk.

i think you can discount flopped sets because he may be 3bet jamminh these on the flop a decent %% of the time. especially being such a wet board. i think his range is


Board: 7s 8c 5c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 43.18% 00.00% 247 0.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 56.818% 56.82% 00.00% 325 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, KcJc }

i dont know how you got 36%. even without the sets he can have that you beat i'm getting 43%. i think i like a jam here. he may even have like KK or AA without a club because your small bet on the turn made him spazz out.

Originally Posted by rpm

i think you can discount flopped sets because he may be 3bet jamminh these on the flop a decent %% of the time. especially being such a wet board. i think his range is


Board: 7s 8c 5c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 43.18% 00.00% 247 0.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 56.818% 56.82% 00.00% 325 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, KcJc }

i dont know how you got 36%. even without the sets he can have that you beat i'm getting 43%. i think i like a jam here. he may even have like KK or AA without a club because your small bet on the turn made him spazz out.

But we don't know how he plays which hand, and he doesn't always play a certain hand the same way, thus I have weighted his range.

It would be unusual for him to play a set of 5s like this, but it's not impossible. I think of the times the he has a set of 5s, he plays it like above 15% of the time. I think he opts to check call with over pairs + 1 card fd more often than check raises, but that doesn't mean he doesn't check raise ever. Again, one needs to weight sections of a range.

Scroll to the section headed "Bayes Theorem".

The 2+2 Forum Archives: Instareads: Bayes theorum and small sample sizes

The thing with a shove is, I'm behind if he calls, I think (tell me otherwise?), but calling with the intention of folding any river, other than perhaps a 4th club, is pretty ridiculous. Or maybe it isn't; perhaps someone wants to tell me why it's fine to do that. I also think I have <5% FE.

oh you had discounted combos in stove for what % he has them when he takes this line? fair enough. because you didnt c and p the stove results i didnt realise. thanks for the link. i'm checking it out now

Originally Posted by rpm

oh you had discounted combos in stove for what % he has them when he takes this line? fair enough. because you didnt c and p the stove results i didnt realise. thanks for the link. i'm checking it out now

No, what percentage he takes this line when he has them.