Quote Originally Posted by Nutty McMutt
I definitely bet this flop. I fire a 1/2 psb on the turn and think long and hard whether I shove or fold the turn to a raise.
if we lead turn and get raised we are NOT at all in a shove or fold situation. i feel like understanding why this is the case is kinda important, so i'll leave it to you to think about why this is. (huge hint: how does shoving manipulate his range, and how do the advantages and the disadvantages compare to when we have somehting like AdQd).

as far as the discussion of whether or not to lead the flop, OP should not just dismiss this as an instance of marginal EV that isn't worth discussing that Griffey talked about in the SHNL (which i think is what you were referencing). if (and that's a big if) there's a small difference in EV between leading out and c/r'ing it is because the plethora of factors involved in this hand just happen to balance each other out. it's actually a VERY interesting spot (esp. for the BC) because it involves a lot of consideration of villains' cbetting range, maximizing value based on opponent reads, manipulating ranges, protecting strong hands on wet flops, merging ranges for when we donk into the preflop raiser and maximizing EV for our whole range.

i personally think we're trying to maximize value against draws/KJ/AK and leading out is the best way to get value from all 3 of those hands (c/r makes all but KJ consider folding and makes it the least likely to get AK's stack, imo). also, showing villains that we're capable of donking with a set adds oober FE to when we donk with draws and such in future hands on similar boards