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25nl combos fold equity attempt
What's up guys? I played an interesting hand today and thought I'd try to calculated the fold equity by the hand combos. Not sure if I did it right please correct me when I'm wrong :P
Villain is 28/8 (13 hands)
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
9 Players
Stacks:
UTG flushcape ($17.48)
UTG+1 napa610 ($4.91)
MP1 PPokerVU ($21.95)
MP2 Hero ($25.25)
MP3 mf2006 ($25.90)
CO Smoking Dough ($26.75)
BTN Smart Zorro ($9.35)
SB TxHorns21 ($25)
BB MistyMystique ($15.57)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) Hero is MP2 
flushcape checks, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 4 folds, MistyMystique calls $0.75, flushcape calls $0.75
Flop: ($2.85, 3 players)
MistyMystique checks, flushcape checks, Hero bets $2, MistyMystique calls $2, flushcape folds
Turn: ($6.85, 2 players)
MistyMystique bets $3, Hero raises to $12.57, MistyMystique goes all-in $9.57
I think after he donks ott we don't really have any other options apart from putting him all in. I can't justify folding with our equity and the pot size and I can't justify calling with villains stack size.
I think assuming he can donk/fold draws he picks up isn't to outrageous. Although he might stack off with a few draws I didn't include. But we can't really know with lol sample size I'm more concerned if my calculation is somewhat along the right lines.
His turn donking range
QQ-TT,33,AQs+,AsTs,KcQc,KdQd,KhQh,KJs-KTs,QTs,JTs,Ts9s,AQo+,KTo+,QTo,JTo
has 51.640% equity and 77 combos
We have KsQs and 48.360% equity
Pot Equity
Pot = $10.30
Bet = $12.57
BET/(bet+pot)
12.57 / (12.57 + 10.30)
12.57 / 22.87 = 54.96% pot equity
His turn calling jam range
JJ-TT,33,AQs+,KJs-KTs,JTs,AQo+,KJo-KTo,JTo has 64.432% equity
and 38 combos
We have KsQs and 35.568% equity
Fold equity from combos
38/77 = 49.35% fold equity?
35.568%(equity) + 49.35%(fold equity) = 84.918%(total equity) ?
So 49% of the time he will fold. 36% of the time he will call and I will suck out on him and 15% of the time he will call and win?
84.918(total equity) > 54.96(pot equity) = +EV jam in the long run?
haha hopefully I'm kinda close, counting the combos took a fair while because of all the blockers. cheer guys tough love please
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