25nl combos fold equity attempt

What's up guys? I played an interesting hand today and thought I'd try to calculated the fold equity by the hand combos. Not sure if I did it right please correct me when I'm wrong :P

Villain is 28/8 (13 hands)

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
9 Players

Stacks:
UTG flushcape ($17.48)
UTG+1 napa610 ($4.91)
MP1 PPokerVU ($21.95)
MP2 Hero ($25.25)
MP3 mf2006 ($25.90)
CO Smoking Dough ($26.75)
BTN Smart Zorro ($9.35)
SB TxHorns21 ($25)
BB MistyMystique ($15.57)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) Hero is MP2
flushcape checks, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 4 folds, MistyMystique calls $0.75, flushcape calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.85, 3 players)
MistyMystique checks, flushcape checks, Hero bets $2, MistyMystique calls $2, flushcape folds

Turn: ($6.85, 2 players)
MistyMystique bets $3, Hero raises to $12.57, MistyMystique goes all-in $9.57

I think after he donks ott we don't really have any other options apart from putting him all in. I can't justify folding with our equity and the pot size and I can't justify calling with villains stack size.

I think assuming he can donk/fold draws he picks up isn't to outrageous. Although he might stack off with a few draws I didn't include. But we can't really know with lol sample size I'm more concerned if my calculation is somewhat along the right lines.

His turn donking range
QQ-TT,33,AQs+,AsTs,KcQc,KdQd,KhQh,KJs-KTs,QTs,JTs,Ts9s,AQo+,KTo+,QTo,JTo

has 51.640% equity and 77 combos

We have KsQs and 48.360% equity

Pot Equity

Pot = $10.30

Bet = $12.57

BET/(bet+pot)

12.57 / (12.57 + 10.30)

12.57 / 22.87 = 54.96% pot equity

His turn calling jam range
JJ-TT,33,AQs+,KJs-KTs,JTs,AQo+,KJo-KTo,JTo has 64.432% equity
and 38 combos

We have KsQs and 35.568% equity

Fold equity from combos
38/77 = 49.35% fold equity?

35.568%(equity) + 49.35%(fold equity) = 84.918%(total equity) ?

So 49% of the time he will fold. 36% of the time he will call and I will suck out on him and 15% of the time he will call and win?

84.918(total equity) > 54.96(pot equity) = +EV jam in the long run?

haha hopefully I'm kinda close, counting the combos took a fair while because of all the blockers. cheer guys tough love please

Just call wtf.

i hate folding this spots, but i also hate getting it AI as an underdog and i think we are here, also i dont see what better hands we can make him fold here and what worse hands are calling. so us calling i think is best here.

Call turn. Why fold out his worse hands/draws? Easy river decision.

Can't go far wrong shoving here tho.

I think that it's best just to call on the turn.
There's not many worse hands that he'll call a shove with.
It's really possible that we're drawing to a split. He's repping AQ with the donk bet and I'd try to get it to showdown as cheaply as possible to catch any bluff that he's trying to pull or to spike an A or a 9 (but the 9 probably isn't an out).

QQ-TT,33,AQs+,AsTs,KcQc,KdQd,KhQh,KJs-KTs,QTs,JTs,Ts9s,AQo+,KTo+,QTo,JTo

3+3+3,3,2+3,1,1,0,1,2+1,2,2,3,9+6,4+5+4,7,7

I count 72 combos in villain's donking range (for example KdQd can't be there as Kd is on the flop)

Calling range:
JJ-TT,33,AQs+,KJs-KTs,JTs,AQo+,KJo-KTo,JTo

3+3,3,2+3,2+1,2,9+6,4+5,7 = 50 combos

So he folds 27/77 = 35% of the time and you have 35.6% equity when called

To calculate the minimum fold equity you need for a semi-bluff to be +EV, you first calculate your risk, which is the amount you are about to put in the pot decreased by your equity in the total pot when called:

risk = 12.57 - 0.356*31.99 = 1.18

And in a bluff, you need him to fold more than risk/(risk+pot) = 1.18/(1.18+9.85) = 10.7% of the time.

Since he folds 35% of the time, the shove is +EV. As a bonus, you could calculate the exact EV (I got $5.99).

Now whether it is more +EV to just call is another story and you can try to caclulate that as well. At a glance though, your semi-bluff does not fold many better hands and does not get called by worse hands. On the other hand, when you hit the river, it's with a scare card which could well prevent you to get paid. Instinctively, I shove the turn.

edit: I mean that I shove the turn assuming the ranges you assigned him are correct. I think it's very arguable whether he donks this turn with a pair or two pairs, or even bets so small with a set. If he only does that with the nut straight, obviously calling is better.

call, raising is like my dumb idea of raising in this hand

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...nl-185439.html

[QUOTE=chatzilla;2012034]
I think after he donks ott we don't really have any other options apart from putting him all in. I can't justify folding with our equity and the pot size and I can't justify calling with villains stack size.

/QUOTE]
? curious about the part in bold above. Why?

Turn donking range = TT/33/KK/KTs/KJs/AQo/AQs/KQo/KQs/JTs
Turn calling range = TT/33/KK/KTs/KJs/AQo/AQs/KQo/KQs/JTs

and I imagine his range is weighted towards AQ and sets here.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Board: Kd Th 3s Js
Dead:
Hand 0: 36.023% 27.05% 08.98% 357 118.50 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 63.977% 55.00% 08.98% 726 118.50 { KK, TT, 33, AQs, KTs+, JTs, AQo, KQo }

Wow thanks for the replies guys. Daviddem thanks for explaining the risk calculation I will defiantly be practicing it.

Daven I think the reason I thought that we can't call is the SPR is so high. But i guess we don't have any other options especially if we think we don't have much/any fold equity. Obv in hindsight i can call here.

Turn donking range = TT/33/KK/KTs/KJs/AQo/AQs/KQo/KQs/JTs
Turn calling range = TT/33/KK/KTs/KJs/AQo/AQs/KQo/KQs/JTs

How do you think he would play AsTs here? I think he easily call the flop cbet and then ott he picks up the NFD

QT and Ts9s I think he could play similar as well. He is a 28/8 (13 hands obv small sample but still somewhat relevant) with a weird stack and calling us oop

IDK maybe I'm too optimistic haha

Originally Posted by chatzilla

Wow thanks for the replies guys. Daviddem thanks for explaining the risk calculation I will defiantly be practicing it.

It's Spoon you have to thank. He is the one who came up with this lovely shortcut.