25nl 6m, TPTK on turn dry board

[rpm]

villain here is 18/16 over 106 and has 3bet 4/39 (10.26%). has folded to 0/1 Cbets and seems to be shaping up to be a tightish TAG reg.

my standard sizing is 3x UTG (almost entirely because i am treating it as a FR game with seats missing, and i open 3x in all positions from UTG through to the BU in FR), however i've noticed carroters opens 4x UTG so that may be preferable?

flop i cbet for value. sizing is small because the board is so dry, so it is likely a way ahead/way behind situation, and betting smaller makes it more likely for "way behind" part of his range (99-JJ, ATs+,AJo+ or whatever) to continue.

i go for another street on the turn because he still has something like 30 (as a rough estimate) Ax combos which call another street and which are dead to 3 outs. to be honest, i fucked up a bit here as i expected him to either call or fold a huuuuuuge amount of the time on the turn and so was kind of thrown off by his 3x raise (that is to say, i didn't have a plan in my head like "bet/fold" or "bet/ship" etc).

the dryness of the board means he can have very few semi-bluffs in his range, unless he floated a gutter like T9 which just picked up 4 extra outs, or 97s. fwiw, i think this is an absolutely excellent spot for him to semi-bluff raise a hand like T9 or 97 because my range is so dominated by Ax hands which can't stand the heat on this dry board. though that play requires him knowing that i'm able to notice wet/dry boards and understand their common implications for people's ranges.

if 6m regs play similar to FR regs, then i definitely expect him to flat his sets on the flop on such a dry board.

anyhow, that's probably enough of my rambling. thoughts on turn play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($25.35)
MP ($25.92)
CO ($25)
Button ($24.70)
SB ($46.10)
BB ($29.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K
Hero bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 8, A, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, MP calls $1

Turn: ($3.85) J (2 players)
Hero bets $2.30, MP raises to $7.25, Hero?

[supa]

I'm almost never folding and almost always making the wrong choice.

[Razvan729]

to me this would be a def folding spot. he has 15 combos ( sets/AJ) that crush us and i dont see him doing this w/ worst A's or draws. of course a bluff would be great on this board, but i dont expect him to do it often enough to make me call here. but i could be wrong, wount be the first time.

[Hoopy]

Unless there's stations or aggro short stacks/3bettors I 4x UTG, 3.5x MP/CO and 3x BTN. Doubt it makes much difference in these games though.

For this hand until we have a read he can float ip or bluff raises air on later streets I'd fold, turn/river raises from these guys are almost always nut type hands.

Looks great otherwise.

[scott_owen]

i fold, i think its far to unlikely that this guy flatted from MP pre with a hand like 9T or 97.. which makes his range sets and AJ. I also think that far too many players in these games won't fold AK to his raise here and if he's a tag reg he knows that and doesnt want to bluff here, he wants to stack you with his nut hand.

you probably answered you own question really..

the dryness of the board means he can have very few semi-bluffs in his range

calling out of position is fairly awful here.. how often do you lose your stack to sets/AJ vs fold out semibluff draws when you ship? he probably doesnt ever call with draws, the sizing doesnt permit it and we are saying he knows that if we are labelling him tag reg..

AND.. you don't have a read saying he uses positional advantage to make bluffs in marginal situations.

[Miffed22001]

Nice hand now fold. Never raising worse but will call with worse making river a thin value bet but this spot a fold. Also make it 4bbs here only 3 on CO and Btn Imo

[The Edlets]

By the way the player was described I can t see him not having a hand. Would be a good bluff, but never really works unless the hero is thinking like you are.

[d0zer]

it's such a bad play with the range he's repping, but he's a 25NL reg so he's probably got that range.

[rpm]

so it seems unanimous that i should be folding here, which is what i did. i guess i just wanted to make sure that it was a standard B/F because against good players, folding 90% of my betting range on the turn is pretty exploitable. not that i expected it be being exploited in this case. thanks.