25nl 6m KT on a QJx board OOP vs a fish

[dranger7070]

Villain is 33/14/4 over 21 hands (lolsamplesize) but I don't really have any specific reads on him. I think he's raised up one of my c-bets before this.

The reason I shove is, I have 8 clean outs that I'm sure of, and I think he might be willing to stack off with Qx here, and if thats the case, i have an additional 3 outs, but I think we can discount those at least half the time giving me ~9-10 outs to hit if called, and whos to say hes not a moran shoving with K9, or 9T?

Anyways, before I shoved, I was thinking this is probably mariginally +EV at best, and I think flatting the raise is better than shipping. I'm getting 3.26:1, or need 23% equity to call, which I dont QUITE have but if I spike the 9 at least, I think implied odds make up for it, not sure about the A. Anyways, what do you guys think?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($23.70)
SB ($43.25)
BB ($39.20)
UTG ($26.85)
Hero (MP) ($25)
CO ($32.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.35) 4, Q, J (3 players)
Hero bets $2, 1 fold, Button raises $5.25, Hero raises $22 (All-In), Button calls $17.45 (All-In)



Total pot: $48.75

Edit: Kind of answered my own p while typing, but any input is still appreciated.

[Carroters]

If he's raised a c-bet before and looks generally potentally aggro I think it's fine. If I call here I'm going to want to c/f to a psb on the turn. We don't even know if we have all that much implied odds if there's a chance he likes to raise c-bets lightly. I prob play the same.

Vs a passive station that's only raising made felting hands it's a call, but I think we have some FE. I mean he's repping what 44 AQ QJ he might even fold a weak queen here cos he sucks and doesn't know why he's raising the flop.

Btw if you think he's willing to stack off with any queen, that's more of a reason to not do this than to do this, b/c yeah, you're behind any queen.

[BennyLaRue]

I'm getting 3.26:1, or need 23% equity to call, which I dont QUITE have

OESD and an over? I think you have that easily. What kind of range do you put opp on?

[dranger7070]

I was thinking like, {44, JJ, QJ, QK, AQ} 9T, KT, and K9 are all maybes, but I'm not sure if he raises these on the flop. AK is a possiblity if hes a drooler. So is AJ. MAYBE QT, but i doubt he raises this.

FWIW, I haven't stoved this range yet, so we very well might have had 23%+.

[bigspenda73]

for those that ship KT, do you also shove AK?

[dranger7070]

for those that ship KT, do you also shove AK?

I guess I didn't really think about it. Now that you bring it to my attention, shoving AK ~ KT on this board if you think both your A and K are outs being that 4 outs to the straight and 6 outs for overs, so you would have to be pretty sure that your outs are clean, but yea I probz shove it here too.

[BennyLaRue]

I guess I didn't really think about it. Now that you bring it to my attention, shoving AK ~ KT on this board if you think both your A and K are outs being that 4 outs to the straight and 6 outs for overs, so you would have to be pretty sure that your outs are clean, but yea I probz shove it here too.

I wouldn't count all your overs as clean, as you said....count about 1.5 outs per instead of 3.

I'd rather ship KT here than AK.

[d0zer]

I don't think shoving either is the correct play here, but there's a fairly significant equity difference between AK and KT here. AK pretty much never has 6 pair outs vs his calling range where KT pretty much always has the 8 clean outs. And when it only has 7 in the case of AQ, we have the 3 K outs.

[bigspenda73]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.398% 28.78% 09.62% 13676 4570.50 { KdTs }
Hand 1: 61.602% 51.98% 09.62% 24703 4570.50 { JJ, 44, AQs, KQs, KTs, QJs, T9s, AQo, KQo, KTo, QJo }

Board: Qs Jh 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.007% 37.67% 00.33% 18276 161.00 { AdKs }
Hand 1: 61.993% 61.66% 00.33% 29912 161.00 { JJ, 44, AQs, KQs, KTs, QJs, T9s, AQo, KQo, KTo, QJo }

[d0zer]

When i stoved it I didn't put draws in his range as I don't think he's raising the flop that often with them. I also put QQ in there as he doesn't necessarily 3b pre.

The presence of draws in his range really changes this spot a fair bit and we're just speculating on how this villain plays them, but in my experience most donks don't semibluff nearly as much as I usually assume they do

[BennyLaRue]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.398% 28.78% 09.62% 13676 4570.50 { KdTs }
Hand 1: 61.602% 51.98% 09.62% 24703 4570.50 { JJ, 44, AQs, KQs, KTs, QJs, T9s, AQo, KQo, KTo, QJo }

If you include those offsuit holdings in his pre-flop range, I guess, but do you think those are likely?

Here's what I was thinking.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.520% 34.24% 00.28% 8135 67.00 { AdKs }
Hand 1: 65.480% 65.20% 00.28% 15491 67.00 { JJ, 44, AQs, KTs, QJs, T9s, AQo }


Board: Qs Jh 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.396% 35.36% 04.03% 8752 998.50 { KdTs }
Hand 1: 60.604% 56.57% 04.03% 14001 998.50 { JJ, 44, AQs, KTs, QJs, T9s, AQo }

[d0zer]

If you include those offsuit holdings in his pre-flop range, I guess, but do you think those are likely?

All those offsuited hands are very likely to be in villain's preflop range, it's just a question of how he plays the draws on the flop.

[bigspenda73]

very likely benny, at least KQ/QJ, arguments could be made for removing KTo but we do kill like half the combos already.

[Outlaw]

Awesome input Spenda.. your stove really opened my eyes.