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20NL Deep with AK

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  1. #1
    I don't think you can easily get away from this one, because if villain will play bottom and midpair aggressively, then your top pair does very well against his range. On the other hand, top pair-top kicker is a little too vulnerable to stack off with for 200bb. He could have {88, QQ+, KQ, K8} that beats you. What hands do you beat that he would call a turn shove with? Maybe KJ and KT? Would he call with less than top pair? An A-high flush draw?

    Look at it this way: it is not a mistake to lose to AA. It happens. If you thought he would call this shove with any K, Q, or flush draw, then you didn't make a mistake (because you'd be coming out ahead money in the long run, even if you took a tough beat now). However, if you thought he would only call this shove with hands that beat you (overpairs, 2-pairs, sets), then you're making a mistake.
  2. #2
    I think you're probably behind when he calls your shove:

    Board: Ks 8s 5h Qd
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 44.370% 38.69% 05.68% 749 110.00 { AcKd }
    Hand 1: 55.630% 49.95% 05.68% 967 110.00 { QQ+, 88, AsQs, KTs+, K8s, AKo, KTo+, K8o }


    But if villain calls with most K and some flush draws, then you are ahead of his calling range:

    Board: Ks 8s 5h Qd
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 58.264% 53.72% 04.55% 1560 132.00 { AcKd }
    Hand 1: 41.736% 37.19% 04.55% 1080 132.00 { QQ+, 88, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, K5s+, AKo, K7o+ }

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