200nl 28k hand checkup

Been 8 tabling Party 200nl full ring for 28,503 hands now and my winrate seem to be drooping farther and farther.

Hands: 28,503
BB/100: 3.96
Amount won: 4,512.84

VPIP: 14.96%
VP-SB: 20.46%
VP-UTG: 8.17%
VP-BTN: 26.37%

PFR: 9.05%
PFR-UTG: 7.69%
PFR-BTN: 14.14%

Att. Steal Blinds: 31.73%

Went to SD: 19.54%
Won $ @SD: 51.36%

Most Profitable hands:

AA: 5.4 bb/hand
KK: 4.4
AKs: 2.6
QQ: 2.4
TT: 1.4

Least Profitable hands:

98s
95s
32s
A3s
77 (!) (pushed all in with set against nut flush draw twice (lost) and one set under set)
66 (!) (FOUR set under sets with this hand)


I think a lot of the reason why I am winning so little is because I am running bad. I averaged a set<set every 2k hands. This seems a tad excessive. The worst thing was I think I could have made some laydowns.

Here's what I mean:

***** Hand History for Game 4228041797 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, May 09, 20:24:46 ET 2006
Table Poker Crux (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 5: Renton555 ( $201 )
Seat 8: Ch3kRaz0r ( $296.85 )
Seat 4: SpikeNYC ( $267.95 )
Seat 10: medstudtrade ( $78.05 )
Seat 9: Ron_Ca21 ( $295.18 )
Seat 3: mnewmy ( $219.53 )
Seat 7: PlaysWthNuts ( $197 )
Seat 6: jfmam ( $121.05 )
Seat 1: LJB33333 ( $70.40 )
LJB33333 posts small blind [$1].
mnewmy posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Renton555 [ 8s 8d ]
SpikeNYC folds.
Renton555 raises [$8].
jfmam folds.
PlaysWthNuts folds.
Ch3kRaz0r folds.
Ron_Ca21 folds.
medstudtrade folds.
LJB33333 folds.
mnewmy calls [$6].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 5c, 8c ]
mnewmy bets [$8].
Renton555 raises [$20].
mnewmy raises [$24].
Renton555 calls [$12].
** Dealing Turn ** [ As ]
mnewmy checks.
Renton555 bets [$45].
mnewmy raises [$90].
Renton555 is all-In.
mnewmy calls [$71].
** Dealing River ** [ 9h ]
mnewmy shows [ Ac, Ad ] three of a kind, aces.
Renton555 doesn't show [ 8s, 8d ] three of a kind, eights.
mnewmy wins $400 from the main pot with three of a kind, aces.

Since he was still going nuts on the turn, I think it was obv. he had AAA and I still couldn't make this laydown, subconsciously knowing he had AAA.


As far as my preflop strategy it goes something like this:

UTG: Limp 22-55 30% of the time, raise 22-55 70% of the time. Raise all other pairs. Raise AQ+, AJs+, KQs. Play middle suited connectors to a mix of 20% limp, 10% raise, 70% fold.

UTG+1---MP: Open all pairs. Limp behind with 22-55. Raise behind limpers with all other pairs. Raise AJ+, KQ, KJs, ATs. If two+ limpers then limp behind with 56s+, 68s+.

HJ, CO: Open all pairs. Limp behind with 22-55. Raise behind limpers with all other pairs. Open with or limp behind with 56s+, 68s+, A2s+.

BTN: Open all pairs. Limp behind with 22-55. Raise behind limpers with all others pairs. Open with or limp behind with 67o+, 45s+, 8T0+, 57s+, A2s+, A7o+, K2s+, K9o+, Q8s+, J7s+.

I c-bet nearly all heads up flops, and probably 1/3 of 3-way flops (whenever there a rag or paired board).

I pretty much never slowplay unless I have top boat or better.

I play 8+ out draws aggressively in position (raise flop), and passively out of position.

I only consider playing TPTK or overpair for stacks if its at least Q's.

I still have tremendous trouble letting go of AA, KK, and TPTK w/AK. Reason being is because against Party fish they are good to play for stacks with a very large percentage of the time.



Anyone see anything blatantly wrong with my strategy that they'd like to point out?

I just limp small pairs UTG and UTG+1 because if I get called (which will happen) I'm playing OOP. I struggle with the same thing when I know the guy has top set and I have bottom set and I still pay it off and I do go stack off with AA and KK more than i should. Also, your VPIP seems a bit low.

Is your standard opening $8 how is that working out for you? I've been toying w/ that idea a bit.

Other than that, you are my hero.

I am finding that raising small pairs in EP gives me a little more action on my AA/KK. I think the only crappy thing about this play is that setfarmers will set farm me with 55 when I raise 33 UTG and we will end up stacking off on a 35x flop. It's a horrible reverse implied odds situation.

I think it pays tho when someone minraises me with AA like they always do and then I hit a completely invisible set, whereas if I had limped and called his raise my set would be a lot more obvious.

I think I just need to learn to lay down sets and AA. Then things will be good.

Also, I am more than rolled for 400nl now, so it would be nice to move up soon. I am not going to even think about it until I can beat 200nl for 6ptbb/100 over 20k consecutive hands.

I open for 8 in the first three positions and for 7 in all others.

What's your standard deviation? (PT session notes tab)

If it's 30 bb/100, then after 28K a 95% confidence interval of your winrate is [0.4, 7.6].

So congratulations, you're a significant winner

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

What's your standard deviation? (PT session notes tab)

If it's 30 bb/100, then after 28K a 95% confidence interval of your winrate is [0.4, 7.6].

So congratulations, you're a significant winner

standard deviation is 38bb/100 hands

Originally Posted by Renton

I think the only crappy thing about this play is that setfarmers will set farm me with 55 when I raise 33 UTG and we will end up stacking off on a 35x flop. It's a horrible reverse implied odds situation.

You mean if you both limp 33 and 55 you wont stack off on a 35x flop?

Are you getting many reads besides HUD? I think at some point you may need to cut down on tables, open up your hand selection and manipulate your opponents more. Think about it - 60+% of your opps are fairly predictable. Entering more pots with them when you have reads can accelerate your profits. You're doing better than I am currently at 200NL, but you asked for input.

Originally Posted by r8ed

Are you getting many reads besides HUD?

Truthfully, not really.

I am an avid note-taker though.

Originally Posted by Renton

Originally Posted by r8ed

Are you getting many reads besides HUD?

Truthfully, not really.

I am an avid note-taker though.

impossible to make reads 8-tabling. in fact, multi-tabling itself is not for no limit players. i find that my winrate is nearly the same whether i play 2 or 3 tables, adn then it drops off from there. so i only play 2 tables. you may have created an attention-deficit disorder within yourself such that you will be bored stiff playing only two hands at a time. but believe me, you can put as much thot into playing 2 tables as eight, the difference is that all you decisions are 4x better...

oh hi m3lancholy. hows your 80,000$ 2006 going?

Originally Posted by siknd

Originally Posted by Renton

Originally Posted by r8ed

Are you getting many reads besides HUD?

Truthfully, not really.

I am an avid note-taker though.

impossible to make reads 8-tabling. in fact, multi-tabling itself is not for no limit players. i find that my winrate is nearly the same whether i play 2 or 3 tables, adn then it drops off from there. so i only play 2 tables. you may have created an attention-deficit disorder within yourself such that you will be bored stiff playing only two hands at a time. but believe me, you can put as much thot into playing 2 tables as eight, the difference is that all you decisions are 4x better...

No way IMO. I consider beating a stake for me to be 7.5ptbb/100 over a fairly large sample at 8-tabling. This is what I ran at 100nl before I moved up. There is no way in hell that I could run 15ptbb/100 fourtabling or 30ptbb/100 2 tabling. The edge you gain in reads against fish isn't very substantial. I probably could run 10ptbb/100 at 100nl if I played two tables. That 2ptbb edge isn't substantial enough for me to consider playing 2 instead of 8.

that makes sense if your goal is to simply make money. if your goal is to compete eventually at 1000nl, then youll need to become a better all round player. im sure you know that. set farmers cannot survive at stakes much above what we play at.

Originally Posted by siknd

set farmers cannot survive at stakes much above what we play at.

Not to be like "ooh in your face, YOU'RE WRONG!!", but just a funny observation I had. I found it hard to believe, myself:

ilikeaces runs like 12% vpip at 1knl. He somehow manages to win.

I think you can beat any stakes with just about any preflop strategy as long as you play good postflop. Thats what I am trying to focus more upon.

and while I am always wanting to improve, my foremost goal is to make money.

Sorry but it had to be said. I am trying to save up a wad of dough so I can pay off all my shit (student loans, car, etc.).

Renton,

What's your setup? I also play 6 to 8 tables of 200NL with a ton of overlap on my laptop with 1024*768 resolution. I'm able to observe maybe 25% of the hands that I don't participate in, plus I have a HUD, and I agree that it's possible to get pretty good reads just from that. However, I wonder whether my reads would be better if I had a bigger monitor that let me observe more of the action. Also, today I accidentally timed out and folded AQ, and misclick-called an all-in with A7. Two days ago I mis-click folded KK. On average I only make one misclick per session, if that, but I still wonder whether it's not time for me to take some of my winning and invest in a Dell monitor, or maybe even two of them.

Originally Posted by Renton

I think the only crappy thing about this play is that setfarmers will set farm me with 55 when I raise 33 UTG and we will end up stacking off on a 35x flop. It's a horrible reverse implied odds situation.

You are probably losing a stack here if you limp too. Also, you make loads from them when they call preflop and fold the best hand on missed flops.

Originally Posted by Renton

I think you can beat any stakes with just about any preflop strategy as long as you play good postflop. Thats what I am trying to focus more upon.

I think what siknd means is to maybe try it for a week or two. The things you learn then can substantially improve your entire future poker, what's two weeks compared to that right? Two-table and work on your reads for a while might not be so bad.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Renton,

What's your setup? I also play 6 to 8 tables of 200NL with a ton of overlap on my laptop with 1024*768 resolution. I'm able to observe maybe 25% of the hands that I don't participate in, plus I have a HUD, and I agree that it's possible to get pretty good reads just from that. However, I wonder whether my reads would be better if I had a bigger monitor that let me observe more of the action. Also, today I accidentally timed out and folded AQ, and misclick-called an all-in with A7. Two days ago I mis-click folded KK. On average I only make one misclick per session, if that, but I still wonder whether it's not time for me to take some of my winning and invest in a Dell monitor, or maybe even two of them.

is 1600x1200 the only resolution you can 4-table on with no overlap? i cant find any 19" 1600x1200 lcds, i want 2 of them. the 21" ones are real expensive

Renton I think that if your ptbb/100 doesn't raise in the next few days it would probably be a good idea to play 2-3 tables to try and get better reads since if you run 7/100 at 3 tables your doing better than what you've been running lately

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Renton,

What's your setup? I also play 6 to 8 tables of 200NL with a ton of overlap on my laptop with 1024*768 resolution. I'm able to observe maybe 25% of the hands that I don't participate in, plus I have a HUD, and I agree that it's possible to get pretty good reads just from that. However, I wonder whether my reads would be better if I had a bigger monitor that let me observe more of the action. Also, today I accidentally timed out and folded AQ, and misclick-called an all-in with A7. Two days ago I mis-click folded KK. On average I only make one misclick per session, if that, but I still wonder whether it's not time for me to take some of my winning and invest in a Dell monitor, or maybe even two of them.

I have a two 20" monitors and one 15". I can play 8-9 tables w/o overlap.

Originally Posted by Renton

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Renton,

What's your setup? I also play 6 to 8 tables of 200NL with a ton of overlap on my laptop with 1024*768 resolution. I'm able to observe maybe 25% of the hands that I don't participate in, plus I have a HUD, and I agree that it's possible to get pretty good reads just from that. However, I wonder whether my reads would be better if I had a bigger monitor that let me observe more of the action. Also, today I accidentally timed out and folded AQ, and misclick-called an all-in with A7. Two days ago I mis-click folded KK. On average I only make one misclick per session, if that, but I still wonder whether it's not time for me to take some of my winning and invest in a Dell monitor, or maybe even two of them.

I have a two 20" monitors and one 15". I can play 8-9 tables w/o overlap.

what resolutions do you play on, and are they lcds?

this is just my best estimate of your UTG range

66+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo

tighten up here?

Are you getting many reads besides HUD?

what do u mean

HUD is a life-saver for us 8-tablers

Originally Posted by Lukie

Are you getting many reads besides HUD?

what do u mean

HUD is a life-saver for us 8-tablers

I guess you'd recommend me getting one then?

I think a lot of the reason why I am winning so little is because I am running bad.

4bb/100 is not bad, certainly if you're 8-tabling. You might consider switching/trying some 6Max. I switched a month ago and I feel my postflop game is really developing. Better reads, better postflop skillz -> better folds, better bluffs -> more $$$.

Originally Posted by Lukie

Are you getting many reads besides HUD?

what do u mean

HUD is a life-saver for us 8-tablers

HUD rocks - no doubt about it. It can give you stats that help you make decisions. But it won't tell you that when player X bets 3/4 pot he has a good and and when he bets full pot or higher he missed. It won't tell you that player Y will call down to the river as long has they have an ace in their hand. It won't tell you that every time player Z reraises you, click fold as fast as you can. Those are the types of reads that can increase your profits.

However, I do see Renton's points about playing a tight, proven game and then replicating that method on as many tables are you can handle - on a level where it is effective. This is great way to accumulate money.

Originally Posted by Lukie

this is just my best estimate of your UTG range

66+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo

tighten up here?

My utg is 22+, AQ+, AJs+, KQs

Renton you def are ahead of me,and a decent player.Your postflop skills are def up there.I think a NL200 run is decent for a while,and you can always drop back to NL100 for a bit too in between to relax.

My goal is to emulate part of your game.I like your strategy with PP's.Oh and yeah it is Sat night so time to go out and look for chicks.

How profitable are AQ, AJ, and KQ for you UTG? I always dump these.

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

How profitable are AQ, AJ, and KQ for you UTG? I always dump these.

Not enough of a sample size to know. However, I have filtered all of my hands played from UTG from my 60k hand database of 100/200/400 NL and I make 1.37ptbb/hand with my UTG range. (not too bad? I don't know what to think of it).


By small sample size, I mean I have made 270$ with AJs under the gun, but -42.55 with AQs.

the fact that AA/KK/AKs are your biggest individual winners show that you're right about them being good enough to stack off with a lot of the time on party-thus you shouldn't worry as much about dumping these when you think it's close to even money that youre beat-you must have bigger leaks to worry about.

good looking stats overall though, and 4bb/100 is not bad at all for 8tabling mid-stakes

I usually dump KQo/AJo from EP;I tend to limp behind in MP or open more from LP with them.AJs I tend to go either way,AQs I'll raise anytime.Good to see that others seem to do that as well.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by Renton

I think you can beat any stakes with just about any preflop strategy as long as you play good postflop. Thats what I am trying to focus more upon.

I think what siknd means is to maybe try it for a week or two. The things you learn then can substantially improve your entire future poker, what's two weeks compared to that right? Two-table and work on your reads for a while might not be so bad.

I wish there was some way to see my w/r at 3 tbls vs w/r at 4-6 (statement begs for a PT master to show me the way).

I play pretty solid on 3 tables, but I always seem to stretch back out to 5-6 when things are really juicy, like Saturday afternoon. Then I stretch during tougher times, and kill my w/r.

I honestly believe that 8 tabling doesn't affect my winrate very adversely. I am probably being naive.