|
|
Sorry guys, I was in a bit of pain (recent knee surgery to repair a torn ACL) when I made my last post. I guess I felt like we were talking in circles. Let me try to be a little more helpful.
 Originally Posted by caddie444
Originally Posted by JKDS
actually wait, how accurate are the ranges? i mean, in hand one we have 200 hands on villain and are limiting his 3bets to the bb alone. so hes only had the bb 33 times, and its likely its been limped to him some of those times, so 6% could be like AA one time. if this is true when we dont really know anything about his 3bet range, and how then would we proceed?
Against unknowns folding is prob best
Two things. First off I disagree that folding TT is best against an unknown. My default against an unknown is to assume a 3-betting range of like QQ+/AK, with 99+ and AQ being possibilities. We are 47% against the former and 59% against the latter. Needing only $2.25 to call, getting nearly 2:1 pot odds and well over 12:1 implied stack odds, I think calling with TT is clearly better than folding.
The second thing is that this guy isn't really an unknown anymore. 200 hands is enough to get a general feel for how someone is playing. The "3bet from BB" stat is pretty worthless over this sample, and as I said before it is a useless stat in this situation anyways because most of his 3betting opportunities in the BB come when he is OOP. IF it is accurate and he is 3betting 6% from the BB (88+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+), we can be fairly certain he is 3betting even wider when he has position against an SB open.
I said that 6% 3bet from BB stat is mostly worthless, so how did I give him a range? With more than 208 hands, he is running 21/19. That's not quite laggy, but it's pretty aggressive. One thing to note is that he's only cold-calling 2% of the time; these are almost certainly to set mine, with maybe an AK/AQ mixed in there depending on who is raising. Thus we get the idea that Villain likes to have initiative in the pot, and is unlikely to just call our raise (for this reason, I like raising to 3x rather than 4x). When we raise from the SB, if he wants to continue with the hand he is likely to 3bet it. He probably knows that he doesn't have odds to set mine.
So put yourself in his shoes. The SB raises (again, you still haven't told us what your image is) and if we want to play we're going to reraise. We look down at JTs. Are we folding it? What about 55? AJ/KQ/99? There are a lot of hands that BB is going to want to continue with, and based on his play up to this point it looks like he is likely to 3bet almost his entire range for continuing. If he folds the BB to steal 90% of the time (again, this is usually when he's OOP), then he's continuing with something like 66+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo. Since he's in position, I would like to widen this to something like 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KQo. TT has 70% equity against this range.
I think that Villain is making a fundamental mistake by 3betting so much when he could be calling. The best way to punish that mistake is to 4bet our TT for value and make him fold a hand like KQ that had plenty of equity to call our raise. Then when he shoves JJ+/AK or 99+/AQ, we have enough equity to call it off.
I can understand being scared of 4betting TT. You will get stacked sometimes and feel dumb. That is unavoidable. But I run something like 35/25 at 6-max. My 3betting range BB vs SB is ridiculous, and if you're folding TT or just calling and seeing a flop, you're making a huge mistake against me. When I say ridiculous, I mean like T4s ridiculous. I'm not saying that this Villain is that crazy, but it's really hard for me to believe that he is not 3betting wide enough here for a 4bet/call to be the most-profitable, least-exploitable option.
Back to Hand #2, you're right surviva... I didn't actually account for blockers, which removes a lot of the hands that can call from his range. However, I totally disagree with you that anyone would ever fold QQ blind vs blind at 6-max. Against the jam, JJ and AK might fold sometimes I guess, but wow you must have a nitty image for that to be the case 
So let's look at it again. Let's say he's 3betting JJ+/AQ+, folding AQ, calling JJ and AK 2/3 of the time, and always calling QQ+. His 3betting range is:
AdAh,AdAs,AhAs,KcKd,KcKs,KdKs,QQ-JJ,AdKd,AsKs,AdQd,AhQh,AsQs,AdKc,AdKs,AhKc,AhKd,Ah Ks,AsKc,AsKd,AdQc,AdQh,AdQs,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AsQc,As Qd,AsQh
or 2.9% of hands. His calling range is:
AdAh,AdAs,AhAs,KcKd,KcKs,KdKs,QQ,JcJh,JcJs,JdJh,Jd Js,AdKd,AdKc,AhKc,AhKd,AsKc,AsKd
or 1.7% of hands. So our fold equity is 41.4%. We have 38.2% equity when called.
Shove/fold: 4 * .414 = 1.66
Shove/call/win: 26.7 * .586 * .382 = 5.98
Shove/call/lose: -24.7 * .586 * .618 = -8.95
Still -$1.30 EV. Even if he always folds AK and calls JJ only half the time (1.1%), our fold equity is then 62.1% but we're only 33.3% when called:
Shove/fold: 4 * .621 = 2.48
Shove/call/win: 26.7 * .379 * .333 = 3.37
Shove/call/lose: -24.7 * .379 * .667 = -6.24
We are still -$0.39 EV. Taking out JJ completely might make it breakeven, but with rake it's still probably -EV. His range is so strong for 3betting and our jam is so much bigger than the pot that it's just really hard for shipping it to be +EV here.
I would much rather 4bet/call AA (most of the time) and KK (over half the time) and 4bet/fold AQs/AJs/KQs (obviously as a bluff with nice blockers). Then I would just call with other pocket pairs and AK. Our play is much more balanced and we shouldn't have too much trouble knowing where we're at postflop. Proceeding this way makes way more sense IMO than shoving $24.70 into a $4 pot.
|
2 Standard hands from the SB 25nl 6-max
,
,
Reply With Quote
