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It's kinda similar to situations where villain bets on the river when a lot of draws just missed. His range is very wide right before the bet, and his legitimate value range is a very narrow fraction of his total. e.g. Say he has 100 possible hands in his range before the bet and 10 possible value hands to bet with. If his 90 missed draws bluff only 11% of the time then his total betting range is 50% value 50% bluffs.
I am twisting that concept, perhaps inappropriately, by saying that his total range just before the shove is any 2 cards. His value shove range is maybe 30-40 combos, and there are ~300 combos of random suited crap that he might decide to shove. So if he randomly decides to shove his crap 10% of the time then we are good.
Now, does he? I don't know. 10% sounds like a lot to me.
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